Commanders vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - November 5, 2023
Commanders at Patriots
6:00 pm • FOXCommanders at Patriots Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Commanders 1-1 | +2.5 | +3-112 | o40.5-112 | +130 |
 Patriots 1-1 | u40.5 | -3-107 | u40.5-107 | -154 |
Gillette StadiumFoxborough
Commanders vs. Patriots Expert Picks
Greg Matherne
Last 30d: 17-26-2 (+1.8u)
WAS +3-115
1u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 127-146-1 (-27.5u)
WAS +3-120
1.04u
WAS +130
1.63u
Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 33-53-0 (-20.7u)
WAS +3-120
0.83u
This line is about to move to 2.5
Sean Zerillo
Last 30d: 172-183-5 (-2.0u)
WAS +3-110
0.5u
Steak Friend
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
WAS +3-102
1u
Matthew Freedman
Last 30d: 17-14-0 (+2.0u)
NE -2.5-117
1.17u
Projection: -4. For more, check out Fantasy Life.
Kenny Ducey
Last 30d: 19-15-1 (+3.1u)
WAS +128
1.28u
Shady Biev
Last 30d: 35-42-0 (-6.7u)
NE -2.5-119
1.79u
Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 8-49-0 (-18.5u)
Royals Props
Last 30d: 11-17-0 (-8.3u)
J.Davis o7.5 Tackles + Ast-110
1u
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 13-29-0 (+4.6u)
J.Dotson Anytime TD Scorer+300
3u
Bet at Bet365. Would still play to +270. Pats are No1 in DVOA to WR1 and No26 in DVOA to WR2. No Curtis Samuel. Love this spot for Dotson.
Royals Props
Last 30d: 11-17-0 (-8.3u)
R.Stevenson o71.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115
1u
Brian Bitler
Last 30d: 95-92-0 (-2.2u)
WAS +2.5+100
3u
Sunday Six Pack
Last 30d: 7-5-0 (+1.4u)
WAS +3.5-110
1u
Raybon 1
Royals Props
Last 30d: 11-17-0 (-8.3u)
L.Thomas u35.5 Rec Yds-115
1u
Jim Sannes
Last 30d: 10-30-0 (+1.7u)
Under 40.5-115
0.87u
Available at FanDuel.This is a low total. But I do think it should be even a bit lower. The wind speeds are currently at 9 miles per hour, which results in a small downgrade. But also, the Patriots’ offense doesn’t generate explosive plays and just lost Kendrick Bourne for the season. The Commanders throw a ton, which stops the clock and can lead to overs. We saw the impact of that last week. But the model knows that and still shows value in the under. This number for me is closer to 36 than 40.5, so I’m fine taking the under.
Chris Raybon
Last 30d: 14-11-0 (+14.3u)
WAS +3.5-115
0.87u
Fire sale or not, these teams are evenly matched at worst. Road dogs +6.5 or less are 167-94-8 (64%) ATS with a +3.1 ATS margin when facing a home fav averaging fewer than 18.0 PPG since 2006 (NE 14.8 PPG).
Matt Moore
Last 30d: 7-8-1 (-2.3u)
WAS +3-105
1u
PRO Insights
Commanders
WAS Insights
- Featured Insight
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Patriots
NE Insights
- Featured InsightThe Commanders have gone three and out on 25% of their drives this season -- tied for fifth-worst in NFL. Patriots have forced three and outs on 24% of opponent drives this season -- tied for sixth-best in NFL.
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Commanders vs. Patriots Previews & Analysis
Commanders vs. Patriots Props
Prop Projections
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Commanders vs. Patriots Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Patriots are 1-1 in their last 5 games.
- Patriots are 1-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Patriots are 1-0 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Patriots' last 2 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Patriots' 1 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
| overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
Over/Under History
| overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Straight-Up (ML) History
| overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | N/A | N/A | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | N/A | N/A | 1-0 | 0-1 |
Last 5 Matchups
Commanders vs. Patriots Injury Updates
Commanders Injuries
- Noah BrownWR
Brown is doubtful with groin
Doubtful
- Austin EkelerRB
Ekeler is out with achilles
Out
- John BatesTE
Bates is doubtful with groin
Doubtful
- Jayden DanielsQB
Daniels is questionable with knee
Questionable
Patriots Injuries
- Christian GonzalezCB
Gonzalez is out with hamstring
Out
- Charles WoodsCB
Woods is questionable with concussion
Questionable
Team Stats
Commanders vs. Patriots Odds Comparison
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Commanders at Patriots Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
|---|---|---|
Commanders 1-1 | o19.5-108 | u19.5-109 |
Patriots 1-1 | o21.5-105 | u21.5-112 |