Commanders vs Patriots Odds, Prediction, Week 9 Pick

Commanders vs Patriots Odds, Prediction, Week 9 Pick article feature image

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Commanders vs Patriots Odds

Sunday, Nov. 5
1 p.m. ET
Commanders Odds
-110o / -110u
Patriots Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

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Commanders vs. Patriots odds have New England laying a field goal in NFL Week 9 at bet365.

A loss to the Eagles was the final straw for the Commanders, who traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young. The Patriots may not have been sellers before the trade deadline but at 2-6, their eyes are probably on next year, too.

Let's preview the game and get into my Commanders vs. Patriots prediction below.

Pick: Patriots -2.5 (-106) | Bet to -3

Commanders vs. Patriots

Matchup Analysis

The Commanders' fire sale resulted in the offloading of two talented edge rushers, Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Mismanagement of its cap led Washington to this decision as Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne were the members of the front who got paid. The misuse of resources has resulted in the Commanders having the two most expensive but worst-graded members, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), of their front left.

Losing two of their best defensive players will be a problem, but how much worse can things get? Washington already ranks 28th in yards per drive allowed and 29th in points per drive. The only team that struggled to produce against Washington was Arizona in Week 1. Every other opponent has gained at least 350 yards — even the Giants. 

Offensively, the Commanders have been all over the place. One week, the Falcons or Giants are keeping them in their place and the next they are going toe-to-toe with the Eagles in a shootout. 

Driving the Commanders' production is the play Sam Howell. Howell’s PFF grades jump back and forth over the line at 65.0. He has exactly four games above and below 65.0 — more interestingly, a good game is always followed by a bad one. 

The result of up-and-down quarterback play is a below-average offense. Washington ranks 24th in yards per drive and 18th in points per drive. 

Bet Washington vs. New England at FanDuel

Commanders +2.5 (-114)

Patriots -2.5 (-106)

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Turning to the Patriots, they have rebounded from being a terrible team to a bad team. Over the last two weeks, New England pulled off an upset against Buffalo and hung in with Miami for most of the game. 

A major change for the Pats recently has been their ability to force turnovers and protect the ball. In the last two weeks, the Patriots' average turnover margin is +1.0. In the first six weeks, their average turnover margin was -1.3.  If New England can keep protecting the ball, this recent trend may continue.

The next step will be establishing a complementary run game for Mac Jones. This may counter what analytics say, but the Pats' run game has been beyond just bad. Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot average a combined 3.45 yards per carry. There is no better opportunity to improve on that than against a Commanders defense that just lost members of its front.

Defensively, although the scores have been ugly, the Patriots defense has not been bad. They are ninth in yards allowed per drive, second in yards per carry and 18th in net yards per attempt. On an efficiency basis, not bad.

The problem has been the offense sets them up for failure via turnovers and short fields to protect. As the schedule softens, if the offense protects the ball, we could see New England's defense live up to its yardage efficiency numbers.

Commanders vs. Patriots

Betting Picks & Predictions

Both teams are looking toward next season, but that doesn’t mean they are in the same level of tank mode. Washington dumped its young talent and will likely focus on figuring out which pieces belong next year. New England, on the other hand, still has the major motivation of making Bill Belichick the all-time winningest coach. 

Adjusting a defense that lost two of its best players on a week’s notice is a tall task for Washington. This will undoubtedly reduce the effectiveness of the Commander's pass rush and that is key to forcing Mac Jones into mistakes.

Sam Howell is the latest in a long line of first-year starters to face a Belichick defense. That story always goes the same — especially with quarterbacks who struggle to feel pressure, like Howell. 

I am taking the Patriots to be the more motivated team and get their head coach one step closer to becoming the all-time wins leader.

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