2020 NFL Draft Odds & Prop Picks: Betting WR Jerry Jeudy’s Draft Props
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Jerry Jeudy #4 of the Alabama Crimson Tide
A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including a couple related to Alabama wide receiver Jerry Jeudy.
2020 NFL Draft: Jerry Jeudy Draft Position
- Over 11.5: -110
- Under 11.5: -110
The 2020 draft class is intriguing: Although wide receivers are increasingly important in today’s pass-heavy NFL, and although this year’s class might have the most prospect talent ever assembled at the position, it’s possible — even probable — that a wide receiver will not be selected in the top 10.
There are four reasons this is the case.
First, only a couple teams picking in the top 10 need a wide receiver. It’s just the luck of the draw.
Second, this class has a strong trio of quarterback prospects in Joe Burrow (LSU), Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) and Justin Herbert (Oregon). Most years have only two quarterbacks who go near the top of the draft, but Herbert’s presence in the class serves to push everyone else just a little further down the board.
Third, the class has a top-heavy cohort of offensive tackles. Tristan Wirfs (Iowa), Mekhi Becton (Louisville), Jedrick Wills Jr. (Alabama) and Andrew Thomas (Georgia) are all worthy candidates for the top 10 — and after them, there’s a fairly significant gap before the next tackle should be selected. And that tiered difference between the top four tackles and all the other tackles is likely to drive up the demand for the former.
Fourth, the strength of this wide receiver class is in its depth, not its elite talent at the top. There’s nothing wrong with Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma) and Henry Ruggs III (Alabama) as the top three receivers in the class. They stack up just fine next to the top three from other years.
But what distinguishes this class is the quality of receivers likely to be available in Rounds 2-4. They are significantly better than their counterparts from other years — and there’s not much of a dropoff from Jeudy, Lamb and Ruggs to the next 10 receivers likely to be selected after them.
And that means teams can afford to wait before addressing the position. It’s a simple matter of supply and demand.
No team picking in the top 10 is likely to draft a receiver in Round 1 because it will be able to get a player comparable enough in Round 2.
So that doesn’t give Jeudy much room at all to hit the under.
I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
And I’m yet to see Jeudy in the top 10 in any expert draft.
If Jeudy is to go under, he’ll probably need to be drafted by the Jets at No. 11, but I think it’s likelier that they will draft an offensive tackle: The Jets really need help at the position. Their offensive line is a weakness anyway, and starting tackles Kelvin Beachum and Brandon Shell are both free agents.
In the mocks I’ve surveyed, 11 players — the three quarterbacks and four tackles as well as edge defender Chase Young, cornerback Jeff Okudah, linebacker Isaiah Simmons and defensive tackle Derrick Brown — all have median draft positions in the top 10.
It’s simply too hard to make room for Jeudy if we try to project him before pick No. 12. Maybe a team falls in love with him and drafts him early — maybe the Jets — but he’s gone over 11.5 in 75% of expert mocks.
PICK: Over 11.5: One unit. Limit: -150.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft Odds: Player to Be Selected With Jets’ First Draft Pick
- Jerry Jeudy: +500
- CeeDee Lamb: +500
- Tristan Wirfs: +500
- Jedrick Wills: +600
- Mekhi Becton: +700
- Andrew Thomas: +700
- Henry Ruggs III: +800
- K’Lavon Chaisson: +1100
- Jeffrey Okudah: +1200
- Isaiah Simmons: +1400
- C.J. Henderson: +2000
- Derrick Brown: +3300
- Kristian Fulton: +5000
As noted above, Jeudy is unlikely to go in the top 10 based on the positional dynamics in the draft and the needs of the teams at the top of the board.
But he could go to the Jets at No. 11. They need to upgrade the position, and Jeudy is mocked to the Jets in 25% of the expert drafts I’ve seen.
Given his +500 odds carry an implied probability of just 16.7%, there’s some value in a vacuum in betting on Jeudy to the Jets with their first pick.
And as Dan Back has pointed out on Twitter, this bet serves as a great hedge to Jeudy’s draft position prop of over 11.5.
Jeudy -110 on the over/under draft order of 11.5 on DK. Jeudy +230 to be drafted by the Jets (@ 11) on PointsBet. Free money. pic.twitter.com/Rg95tMpIDH
— Dan Back (@dan_back) March 24, 2020
There are four ways this two-prop bet can play out.
Jeudy is drafted by a team other than the Jets before pick No. 12: This is the worst-case scenario. If this happens, both bets will lose. But this also seems extremely unlikely. I have not seen this scenario play out in any post-combine expert mock.
Jeudy is drafted by the Jets before pick No. 12: If this happens, your +500 ticket will cash but your over 11.5 ticket will not. If you bet 0.2 units on Jeudy to the the Jets and one unit on over 11.5, you’ll break even.
Jeudy is drafted after pick No. 11 by a team other than the Jets: This is the most probable scenario. If this happens, your over 11.5 ticket will cash but your +500 ticket will not. If you bet one unit on over 11.5 and 0.2 units on Jeudy to the Jets, you’ll profit +0.71 units (0.91 won minus 0.2 lost).
Jeudy is drafted by the Jets after pick No. 11: Yahtzee! This is the dream scenario — and although it’s unlikely that both tickets will cash, it’s not unthinkable. Jeudy is likely to go after No. 11, and the Jets could trade down a few picks and perhaps still get him. If you bet one unit on over 11.5 and 0.2 units on Jeudy to the Jets, you’ll profit +1.91 units.
PICK: Jerry Jeudy +500: 0.2 units. Limit: +500.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks
- Total QBs Drafted in Round 1
- How to Bet the Top 3 Picks
- QB Tua Tagovailoa’s Draft Position
- First Wide Receiver to Be Drafted
- First Running Back to Be Drafted
- First Tight End to Be Drafted
- First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted
- Second Offensive Player to Be Drafted
- Exact Order of Top 3 Picks
- Second Quarterback to Be Drafted
- First Safety to Be Drafted
- First Player Drafted by Giants
Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.