2020 NFL Draft Odds & Prop Picks: Will Tua Tagovailoa Be the Second Quarterback Drafted?

2020 NFL Draft Odds & Prop Picks: Will Tua Tagovailoa Be the Second Quarterback Drafted? article feature image

Butch Dill, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa

2020 NFL Draft Odds: Second QB Drafted

  • Tua Tagovailoa: -400
  • Justin Herbert: +250
  • Jordan Love: +1200
  • Joe Burrow: +2200
  • Jacob Eason: +10000
  • Jake Fromm: +10000
  • Jalen Hurts: +10000

Odds as of Sunday, Mar. 29, and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.

Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including the one for the second quarterback selected.

Tua Tagovailoa to be Second QB Drafted -400 (DraftKings)

This is a lot of juice, but you know how the saying goes: When life gives you oranges, you make orange juice, and then you drink the juice.

Despite entering the 2019 college football season as the consensus No. 1 overall pick, Tagovailoa has effectively no chance to overtake LSU quarterback Joe Burrow for that honor.

The combination of Burrow's 5,671-yard, 60-touchdown passing campaign and Tagovailoa's career-threatening hip injury has conspired to lock Burrow in as the No. 1 quarterback.

At DraftKings, Burrow is -10000 to be the first quarterback drafted. At PointsBet, he's a more reasonable -5000 — but that still gives him a 98.0% implied probability to be the draft's top quarterback.

So Tagovailoa has little chance of jumping Burrow, and I doubt that he's going to be jumped by Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert or Utah State quarterback Jordan Love.

And that means Tagovailoa looks locked in as the No. 2 quarterback.

I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.

And in 90% of these drafts, Tagovailoa is the No. 2 quarterback selected.

At -400, Tagovailoa has an 80% implied probability to be the draft's second quarterback, but I'd put his true odds closer to the 90% mark seen in expert mocks.

PICK: Tua Tagovailoa -400: One unit. Limit: -750

[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks

Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.

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