2022 Super Bowl Bengals vs. Rams Odds: How Do 4-Point or More Favorites Fare Historically?
Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Namath in Super Bowl III
The Rams have become a consensus 4.5-point favorite after opening as low as -3, a change that has substantial historical implications.
How do 4-point or more favorites in the Super Bowl historically fare? Since the turn of the millennium: horribly, at least against the spread (ATS).
Since 2000, only two teams have covered as 4-point favorites or more. That’s an ATS record of 2-10-1. Favorites of three or fewer points went 5-3 ATS in that span.
Super Bowl Favorites of 4 or More Points Since 2000
|2018: Eagles 41, Patriots 33||Patriots -4.5||LOSS|
|2016: Broncos 24, Panthers 10||Panthers -4.5||LOSS|
|2013: Ravens 34, 49ers 31||49ers -4.5||LOSS|
|2010: Saints 31, Colts 17||Colts -5||LOSS|
|2009: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23||Steelers -7||LOSS|
|2008: Giants 17, Patriots 14||Patriots -12||LOSS|
|2007: Colts 29, Bears 17||Colts -7||WIN|
|2006: Steelers 21, Seahawks 10||Steelers -4||WIN|
|2005: Patriots 24, Eagles 21||Patriots -7||LOSS|
|2004: Patriots 32, Panthers 29||Patriots -7||LOSS|
|2003: Bucs 48, Raiders 21||Raiders -4||LOSS|
|2001: Patriots 20, Rams 17||Rams -14||LOSS|
|2000: Rams 23, Titans 16||Rams -7||PUSH|
This wasn’t always the case. The NFL, like every other major American professional sports league, has labored over the last 2 1/2 decades to ensure parity among its ranks.
No league has implemented measures as successful as the NFL, which force a hard salary cap and provide worse teams easier schedules the following season, among other measures.
These implementations from the mid-to-late 1990s onward drastically evened out the competitive playing field.
So it’s no surprise that beforehand, Super Bowl favorites of four or more points were far more common — and won far more often.
From 1966 to 2000, Super Bowl favorites of 4+ points were 15-7-1 ATS. For reference, favorites of three or fewer points went 4-4.
And a favorite of four or more points occurred every year from 1989-2000. There have only been three Super Bowl favorites of four or more points since 2010.
Super Bowl Favorites of 4 or More Points From 1966-2000
|1999: Broncos 34, Atlanta 19||Broncos -7.5||WIN|
|1998: Broncos 31, Packers 24||Packers -14||LOSS|
|1997: Packers 35, Patriots 21||Packers -14||PUSH|
|1996: Cowboys 27, Steelers 17||Cowboys -13.5||LOSS|
|1995: 49ers 49, Chargers 26||49ers -18.5||WIN|
|1994: Cowboys 30, Bills 13||Cowboys -10.5||WIN|
|1993: Cowboys 52, Bills 17||Cowboys -6.5||WIN|
|1992: Washington 37, Bills 24||Washington -7||WIN|
|1991: Giants 20, Bills 19||Bills -7||LOSS|
|1990: 49ers 55, Broncos 10||49ers -12||WIN|
|1989: 49ers 20, Bengals 16||49ers -7||LOSS|
|1987: Giants 39, Broncos 20||Giants -9.5||WIN|
|1986: Bears 46, Patriots 10||Bears -10||WIN|
|1980: Steelers 31, Rams 19||Steelers -10.5||WIN|
|1978: Cowboys 27, Broncos 10||Cowboys -6||WIN|
|1977: Raiders 34, Minnesota 14||Raiders -4||WIN|
|1976: Steelers 21, Cowboys 17||Steelers -7||LOSS|
|1974: Dolphins 24, Vikings 7||Dolphins -6.5||WIN|
|1972: Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3||Cowboys -6||WIN|
|1970: Chiefs 23, Vikings 7||Vikings -12||LOSS|
|1969: Jets 16, Colts 7||Colts -18||LOSS|
|1968: Packers 33, Raiders 14||Packers -13.5||WIN|
|1967: Packers 35, Chiefs 10||Packers -14||WIN|