2022 Super Bowl Bengals vs. Rams Odds: How Do 4-Point or More Favorites Fare Historically?

2022 Super Bowl Bengals vs. Rams Odds: How Do 4-Point or More Favorites Fare Historically? article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Namath in Super Bowl III

The Rams have become a consensus 4.5-point favorite after opening as low as -3, a change that has substantial historical implications.

How do 4-point or more favorites in the Super Bowl historically fare? Since the turn of the millennium: horribly, at least against the spread (ATS).

Since 2000, only two teams have covered as 4-point favorites or more. That's an ATS record of 2-10-1. Favorites of three or fewer points went 5-3 ATS in that span.

Super Bowl Favorites of 4 or More Points Since 2000

Super BowlOddsResult
2018: Eagles 41, Patriots 33Patriots -4.5LOSS
2016: Broncos 24, Panthers 10Panthers -4.5LOSS
2013: Ravens 34, 49ers 3149ers -4.5LOSS
2010: Saints 31, Colts 17Colts -5LOSS
2009: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23Steelers -7LOSS
2008: Giants 17, Patriots 14Patriots -12LOSS
2007: Colts 29, Bears 17Colts -7WIN
2006: Steelers 21, Seahawks 10Steelers -4WIN
2005: Patriots 24, Eagles 21Patriots -7LOSS
2004: Patriots 32, Panthers 29Patriots -7LOSS
2003: Bucs 48, Raiders 21Raiders -4LOSS
2001: Patriots 20, Rams 17Rams -14LOSS
2000: Rams 23, Titans 16Rams -7PUSH

This wasn't always the case. The NFL, like every other major American professional sports league, has labored over the last 2 1/2 decades to ensure parity among its ranks.

No league has implemented measures as successful as the NFL, which force a hard salary cap and provide worse teams easier schedules the following season, among other measures.

These implementations from the mid-to-late 1990s onward drastically evened out the competitive playing field.

So it's no surprise that beforehand, Super Bowl favorites of four or more points were far more common — and won far more often.

From 1966 to 2000, Super Bowl favorites of 4+ points were 15-7-1 ATS. For reference, favorites of three or fewer points went 4-4.

And a favorite of four or more points occurred every year from 1989-2000. There have only been three Super Bowl favorites of four or more points since 2010.

The must-have app for NFL bettors

The best NFL betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Super Bowl Favorites of 4 or More Points From 1966-2000

Super BowlOddsResult
1999: Broncos 34, Atlanta 19Broncos -7.5WIN
1998: Broncos 31, Packers 24Packers -14LOSS
1997: Packers 35, Patriots 21Packers -14PUSH
1996: Cowboys 27, Steelers 17Cowboys -13.5LOSS
1995: 49ers 49, Chargers 2649ers -18.5WIN
1994: Cowboys 30, Bills 13Cowboys -10.5WIN
1993: Cowboys 52, Bills 17Cowboys -6.5WIN
1992: Washington 37, Bills 24Washington -7WIN
1991: Giants 20, Bills 19Bills -7LOSS
1990: 49ers 55, Broncos 1049ers -12WIN
1989: 49ers 20, Bengals 1649ers -7LOSS
1987: Giants 39, Broncos 20Giants -9.5WIN
1986: Bears 46, Patriots 10Bears -10WIN
1980: Steelers 31, Rams 19Steelers -10.5WIN
1978: Cowboys 27, Broncos 10Cowboys -6WIN
1977: Raiders 34, Minnesota 14Raiders -4WIN
1976: Steelers 21, Cowboys 17Steelers -7LOSS
1974: Dolphins 24, Vikings 7Dolphins -6.5WIN
1972: Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3Cowboys -6WIN
1970: Chiefs 23, Vikings 7Vikings -12LOSS
1969: Jets 16, Colts 7Colts -18LOSS
1968: Packers 33, Raiders 14Packers -13.5WIN
1967: Packers 35, Chiefs 10Packers -14WIN
The ultimate NFL betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Our NFL model's biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.