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2022 Super Bowl Bengals vs. Rams Odds: How Do 4-Point or More Favorites Fare Historically?

2022 Super Bowl Bengals vs. Rams Odds: How Do 4-Point or More Favorites Fare Historically? article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Namath in Super Bowl III

The Rams have become a consensus 4.5-point favorite after opening as low as -3, a change that has substantial historical implications.

How do 4-point or more favorites in the Super Bowl historically fare? Since the turn of the millennium: horribly, at least against the spread (ATS).

Since 2000, only two teams have covered as 4-point favorites or more. That’s an ATS record of 2-10-1. Favorites of three or fewer points went 5-3 ATS in that span.

Super Bowl Favorites of 4 or More Points Since 2000

Super Bowl Odds Result
2018: Eagles 41, Patriots 33 Patriots -4.5 LOSS
2016: Broncos 24, Panthers 10 Panthers -4.5 LOSS
2013: Ravens 34, 49ers 31 49ers -4.5 LOSS
2010: Saints 31, Colts 17 Colts -5 LOSS
2009: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23 Steelers -7 LOSS
2008: Giants 17, Patriots 14 Patriots -12 LOSS
2007: Colts 29, Bears 17 Colts -7 WIN
2006: Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 Steelers -4 WIN
2005: Patriots 24, Eagles 21 Patriots -7 LOSS
2004: Patriots 32, Panthers 29 Patriots -7 LOSS
2003: Bucs 48, Raiders 21 Raiders -4 LOSS
2001: Patriots 20, Rams 17 Rams -14 LOSS
2000: Rams 23, Titans 16 Rams -7 PUSH

This wasn’t always the case. The NFL, like every other major American professional sports league, has labored over the last 2 1/2 decades to ensure parity among its ranks.

No league has implemented measures as successful as the NFL, which force a hard salary cap and provide worse teams easier schedules the following season, among other measures.

These implementations from the mid-to-late 1990s onward drastically evened out the competitive playing field.

So it’s no surprise that beforehand, Super Bowl favorites of four or more points were far more common — and won far more often.

From 1966 to 2000, Super Bowl favorites of 4+ points were 15-7-1 ATS. For reference, favorites of three or fewer points went 4-4.

And a favorite of four or more points occurred every year from 1989-2000. There have only been three Super Bowl favorites of four or more points since 2010.

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Super Bowl Favorites of 4 or More Points From 1966-2000

Super Bowl Odds Result
1999: Broncos 34, Atlanta 19 Broncos -7.5 WIN
1998: Broncos 31, Packers 24 Packers -14 LOSS
1997: Packers 35, Patriots 21 Packers -14 PUSH
1996: Cowboys 27, Steelers 17 Cowboys -13.5 LOSS
1995: 49ers 49, Chargers 26 49ers -18.5 WIN
1994: Cowboys 30, Bills 13 Cowboys -10.5 WIN
1993: Cowboys 52, Bills 17 Cowboys -6.5 WIN
1992: Washington 37, Bills 24 Washington -7 WIN
1991: Giants 20, Bills 19 Bills -7 LOSS
1990: 49ers 55, Broncos 10 49ers -12 WIN
1989: 49ers 20, Bengals 16 49ers -7 LOSS
1987: Giants 39, Broncos 20 Giants -9.5 WIN
1986: Bears 46, Patriots 10 Bears -10 WIN
1980: Steelers 31, Rams 19 Steelers -10.5 WIN
1978: Cowboys 27, Broncos 10 Cowboys -6 WIN
1977: Raiders 34, Minnesota 14 Raiders -4 WIN
1976: Steelers 21, Cowboys 17 Steelers -7 LOSS
1974: Dolphins 24, Vikings 7 Dolphins -6.5 WIN
1972: Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3 Cowboys -6 WIN
1970: Chiefs 23, Vikings 7 Vikings -12 LOSS
1969: Jets 16, Colts 7 Colts -18 LOSS
1968: Packers 33, Raiders 14 Packers -13.5 WIN
1967: Packers 35, Chiefs 10 Packers -14 WIN
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