The Arizona Cardinals (2-3) and Indianapolis Colts (4-1) will face off in NFL Week 6. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Colts are favored by -7 on the spread with the over/under set at 47 total points. Indianapolis is a -370 moneyline favorite to win outright while Arizona is +275 to pull off the upset.
The status of Kyler Murray is up in the air for Week 6, but that doesn't impact how I think Cardinals-Colts will play out. Find my Week 6 preview and Cardinals vs Colts predictions for Sunday, October 12, below.
Cardinals vs Colts Prediction
- Cardinals vs Colts pick: Colts -7 (-110); bet to -8
My Cardinals vs Colts best bet is on the Colts to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Cardinals vs Colts Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -370 |
Cardinals vs Colts Week 6 Preview
Arizona Cardinals Betting Preview: No Explosion With or Without Kyler
Kyler Murray’s status for this game is in question. Dealing with a foot injury, he didn't practice on Wednesday and Thursday — but it does not really affect my handicap for this matchup.
Murray ranks 29th in the league in yards per pass attempt and has mainly been attacking the short area of the field. His average depth of target is ahead of only Aaron Rodgers. The Cardinals quarterback has played one of the more conservative styles of any QB in the NFL — just over a quarter of all his throws have been 10 yards or further down the field.
This is just one of the reasons why the Cardinals offense has struggled through five weeks. Arizona is averaging a league-worst 3.8 yards per play on first down and has very little explosive ability, ranking 29th in chunk gains of 20+ yards. Arizona has yet to generate a single touchdown from outside the red zone.
If Murray can't play, Jacoby Brissett would step in and I would expect him to play a similar style.
If the Cardinals are going to sustain drives, they need to be able to exploit a Colts rush defense that ranks last in the NFL in success rate.
However, that specific metric almost seems like an outlier, with Indianapolis' rush defense ranking 15th and 16th, respectively, in expected points added per rush (EPA/play) and DVOA.
Most importantly: teams have not had the luxury of playing in neutral game scripts against the Colts because no defense has been able to limit their offensive attack.
Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview: Best Offense in the NFL
Daniel Jones has revived his career under head coach Shane Steichen, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, good for the third-best mark in the league this season.
Jones has passed for 62 first downs while only taking four sacks, a 2.5% sack percentage rate — the lowest out of all quarterbacks with significant playing time. He deserves a majority of the credit for this, especially when the Colts' offensive line ranks 21st in pass block win rate. This is a unit that still excels at run blocking while being just league average in pass protection.
Jones should be quite comfortable in the pocket on Sunday; Arizona cannot get pressure without blitzing, generating it at a mere 29% rate, with its base pass rush ranking 25th.
Will Johnson is the only bright spot in the Cardinals' secondary — outside of the standout rookie, Arizona does not have the personnel on the back end to give head coach Jonathan Gannon and defensive coordinator Brian Ward the luxury of sending extra pass rushers.
The Cardinals have a blitz rate of 16.9%, which is one of the lowest marks in the league.
It is cliché to say the running game is highly important to a team’s success, but it’s true when assessing the Colts. Their ground attack ranks top five in all of the following categories: run block win rate, stuffed run percentage, missed tackles forces, first downs and yards after contact. They also lead the league with 11 rushing touchdowns.
Cardinals vs Colts Prediction, Betting Analysis
Offensively, the Colts are the definition of complementary football, which is why they average 3.3 points per drive, making them the best offense in the NFL.
Arizona will have to play a flawless game without the benefit of creating explosive plays to quickly put points on the scoreboard.
The discrepancy between the league’s best offense on first down versus the worst offense on first down has Daniel Jones playing on easy mode, while Kyler Murray (or Jacoby Brissett) will have to overcome third-and-long situations consistently.
I’ll be backing the home team to win with margin for the fourth time this season and would lay up to 8 points.
Pick: Colts -7; bet to -8
