The Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins will face off in Week 3 of the NFL preseason tonight. Kickoff is set for in 7:00 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The game will broadcast live on NFL+.
The Falcons are 4.5-point favorites over the Dolphins on the spread (Falcons -4.5), with the over/under set at 36.5 total points. Atlanta is priced as a -210 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Miami is a +176 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Falcons vs. Dolphins predictions and NFL picks for Friday, August 28.
My Falcons vs Dolphins Prediction
- Falcons vs Dolphins pick: Dolphins Moneyline (+176)
My Falcons vs. Dolphins best bet is Miami moneyline (+176), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Falcons vs Dolphins Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | +176 |
Falcons vs Dolphins NFL Preseason Preview
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview: Inflated Line
The Atlanta Falcons caught the eyes of many bettors after an impressive 34-6 victory over the Colts in their second preseason contest last week.
That dominant result caused the point spread for this game to jump from an opening line of Falcons -2.5 up to -4.5, with public tracking showing 76% of total wagers and 99% of the handle backing Atlanta.
However, bettors should proceed with caution before overreacting to a single preseason game. Just one week prior, Atlanta looked completely out of sync in a 27-7 loss to the Broncos, demonstrating how wildly performance can swing from week to week in NFL preseason games.
Atlanta's quarterback rotation produced dramatically different results across those first two outings.
In the opener against Denver, Cooper Rush struggled to a 7-for-19 line for 62 yards and two interceptions, while rookie Jack Strand managed just 50 yards on 12 attempts.
Both signal-callers bounced back sharply against Indianapolis, as Rush completed 10-of-11 passes for 86 yards and Strand shredded secondary reserves for 212 passing yards, 22 rushing yards, and two total touchdowns.
Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski has indicated that starters will see brief action in this matchup, likely giving Tua Tagovailoa another short appearance under center.
While a brief starter stint paired with last week's strong offensive display makes Atlanta an attractive public favorite, it has created an artificially inflated line that ignores the inherent volatility of preseason play.
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview: Buy-Low Opportunity on Unpopular Underdog
The Miami Dolphins enter Friday night as a deeply unpopular side after dropping their first two exhibition games in ugly fashion, losing 20-7 to Washington and 26-3 to the Giants.
That lack of offensive production has driven public sentiment away from Miami, but it also creates a classic buy-low environment.
Malik Willis is slated to start and play the opening series or two. Willis looked sharp in his brief preseason action earlier this month, completing 4-of-5 passes for 43 yards, and his mobility gives Miami an immediate threat against Atlanta's starting defensive front.
Beyond Willis, Miami's reserve quarterbacks have posted ugly box scores — but there is room for realistic progression.
Backup Quinn Ewers had a day to forget in his first preseason appearance, completing 1-of-8 passes for 27 yards and an interception. Yet, his overall profile includes three regular-season NFL starts from his rookie campaign where he compiled 622 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Ewers is a far more capable distributor than his lone exhibition stat line of this preseason suggests.
Meanwhile, Cam Miller showed noticeable growth from Week 1 to Week 2, cutting out costly turnovers while improving his operational efficiency. He was 3-for-11 for 39 passing yards and 2 INTs in the first week of the preseason, and then he went 6-for-11 for 60 passing yards and 0 INTs in the second week.
If Willis sets an early baseline and the backup rotation continues its steady improvement, Miami possesses far more competitive depth than the public perception implies.
Falcons vs Dolphins Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup serves as a ideal candidate for our Bet Labs system titled "Preseason: Small Unpopular ‘Dogs ATS, Bet ML." This strategy isolates small preseason underdogs catching between 0 and 5.5 points that hold under 41% of public ticket support.
In exhibition play, public perception routinely overvalues recent blowout wins while discarding teams coming off poor statistical outings.
Because preseason games frequently turn on late-game roster battles and developmental rotations rather than frontline star power, taking underdog moneylines in low-spread environments yields long-term positive returns.
The market has overadjusted to Atlanta's lopsided Week 2 win while writing off Miami due to back-to-back low-scoring performances.
With Atlanta taking a huge percentage of the overall money, the public has pushed this spread past a key threshold, creating a nice window to fade the narrative and back the underdog.
Miami's quarterback rotation for this game features a solid starter in Willis, a young backup with real NFL experience in Ewers, and a developing reserve in Miller who is trending in the right direction.
Fading the public overreaction and backing the unpopular underdog to win outright likely offers the best value in this spot.
Pick: Dolphins Moneyline (+176)
