The Baltimore Ravens (1-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) will face off in NFL Week 4. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Ravens are 2.5-point favorites over the Chiefs on the spread (Ravens -2.5), with the over/under set at 48.5 total points. Baltimore is a -150 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Kansas City is +125 to pull off the upset.
It may not be time to panic yet when it comes to the Chiefs and Ravens, given their recent history of success, but dropping to 1-3 for either team would certainly be cause for concern. Let's get into my Ravens vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September, 28.
Ravens vs Chiefs Prediction
- Ravens vs Chiefs pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
My Chiefs vs. Ravens best bet is on the under, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Ravens vs Chiefs Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Ravens vs Chiefs NFL Week 4 Preview
Lamar Jackson is 1-5 against Kansas City in his career, yet Baltimore is favored in Arrowhead on Sunday. This also marks the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career that he is lined as an underdog in back-to-back home games.
Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has opted to defend Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in an interesting manner in previous meetings.
Historically, the Chiefs have prioritized limiting Jackson in the passing game, seemingly content with him moving the chains with his legs, as long as they limit any big play opportunities for the Baltimore offense.
Jackson has rushed for a minimum of 46 yards in the previous six games versus the Chiefs, averaging 79.8 rushing yards per contest.
These teams met in Week 1 last season in Kansas City, and Jackson had a season-high in both carries and rushing yards.
However, through the air, Lamar averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt, which was his third-lowest of any game the entire season. That number is right in line with his career average against Spaguolo’s defenses (6.5 YPA).
The game plan for Kansas City is to make Baltimore methodically move the football down the field, where they will face several third downs along the way.
The Chiefs defense should also hold up well when defending running back Derrick Henry. Kansas City limited Henry to 3.5 yards per rush in their meeting in 2024, and they have consistently been reliable in limiting opposing running backs on the ground.
The Chiefs have allowed just 3.9 yards per carry this season and have surrendered an explosive run on just 1.2% of rushes, the third-best mark in the league.
The Kansas City offense has been stuck in the mud this season after losing Xavier Worthy on the opening drive of the regular season. Worthy is going to make his return this week, but there are still plenty of other questions surrounding this offense.
Running backs Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco have combined to average 16 carries per game, yet they have failed to produce a single explosive run of 15+ yards. Andy Reid has publicly stated he should give more chances to their ground attack, and I believe him.
Kansas City has the highest neutral pass rate in the NFL through three weeks. After seeing what the Ravens allowed on the ground to the Lions on Monday night football last week, Reid is certainly going to test whether they can execute a similar game plan.
Make no mistake, this will only hinder the Chiefs offense further and keep the clock churning more throughout the game.
The passing attack of the Chiefs often serves as an extension of their running game. When Reid and Matt Nagy decide to run the ball more often, in addition to calling short passes that mimic the run, it creates a highly conservative environment resembling the days when Alex Smith was under center for Kansas City.
Ravens vs Chiefs Prediction, Betting Analysis
I understand why any game the Ravens play in must be totaled in the 48.5 to 54.5 range: all three of their games this season have gone over the total and by double digits in each instance.
However, given what I just laid out regarding the Chiefs on both sides of the ball, they simply do not participate in many high-scoring affairs.
Since Rashee Rice left the lineup in Week 4 of 2024 due to injury, the Chiefs have played 16 regular-season games with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback. Just two of those 16 games saw more than 48 points scored during regulation.
This game will play out in the typical methodical fashion. Almost every Chiefs' game in recent memory has fallen short of the 48.5-point total.
Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
Spread
I'm not interested in the spread for this game.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm taking the under at 48.5 total points in this matchup.
