Steelers vs Ravens Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 14

Steelers vs Ravens Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 14 article feature image

Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Huntley.

  • The Lamar Jackson-less Ravens are road underdogs against the Steelers.
  • Tyler Huntley will start for Baltimore, which is fighting for the AFC North title.
  • Phillip Kall previews the game and makes his betting pick below.

Steelers vs Ravens Odds

Sunday, Dec. 11
1 p.m. ET
Steelers Odds
Ravens Odds
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

NFL Week 14 brings a storied rivalry, as we look for a Steelers vs Ravens pick in an AFC North showdown. This matchup has been one you don’t want to miss recently as seven of its last nine games have been decided by one score. 

The Ravens have been on the wrong side recently as they have lost the last four. This year could be the time to break that streak though. Baltimore has been on a roll of late, winning five of its last six and currently sit atop the AFC North. However, the Bengals are a mere half-game back so there is no room for error.

The Steelers, on the other hand, sit at 5-7 and their hopes of a trip to the postseason are all but gone. But despite their record, the return of T.J. Watt seems to have revitalized them. They have won three of their last four and their offense and defense have taken their games to another level.

With both teams rolling, another close, gritty game should be in store. 

Steelers vs Ravens Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Steelers and Ravens match up statistically:

Steelers vs Ravens DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA613
Pass DVOA815
Rush DVOA212
Overall DVOA219
Pass DVOA2211
Rush DVOA156

Since their bye in Week 9, the Steelers offense has had four of their best six outings in terms of yardage. Even more impressive is they have also managed to cut down on their turnovers, going from nearly two per game to zero. 

So what has been the difference? Their rushing attack has gone from putrid to pretty good. Prior to the bye, Najee Harris averaged 3.76 yards per carry and 62 yards per game. In the past four games, he's averaged 4.63 yards per carry and 78 yards per game. Those recent numbers even include an outing in which Harris left early with an injury.

Having a reliable run game has taken the stress off rookie quarterback, Kenny Pickett. In this four-game stretch, Pickett has a quarterback rating of 85.9 compared to 66.8 prior. The key difference is the absence of interceptions and fewer negative plays.

With the offense functioning and not costing Pittsburgh games, the defense has been able to live up to its hype. Since Week 10, Pittsburgh has averaged 1.75 turnovers forced and has held opponents to 210 passing yards per game.

It's no accident this team is 4-1 with Watt. He changes what plays can be called by the opposing offense and opens opportunities for teammates. As long as the offense doesn’t throw the game away and Watt is on the field, Pittsburgh will be tough to beat.

Bet Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh at FanDuel

Turning to the Ravens, their offense suffered a major blow last week when Lamar Jackson suffered a sprained PCL. The reports jumped from him being day to day to being week to week — who knows when he will return.Until then, the offense will be led by Tyler Huntley. 

Huntley filled in for Jackson last season and played well despite going 1-4. In all those defeats, the Ravens never lost by more than a field goal. 

Fast-forward to Week 13 and another close loss loomed. However, Huntley broke the curse and led the Ravens to a 91-yard game-winning touchdown. That drive also came against the Broncos’ stout defense. 

Defensively, the addition of Roquan Smith has saved Baltimore's run defense. Since his arrival, the Ravens have not had a PFF run defense grade under 70. Prior to his arrival, they had one such game.

On the backend, they have struggled recently, but reinforcements are coming. Safety Marcus Williams could return this week. He has three interceptions and serves as a safety blanket for their coverage unit. The addition of Smith and the return of Williams should vault this defense from good to great.

Betting Picks

A classic Ravens-Steelers match is in store. Two tough defenses and two offenses tasked with not throwing the game away. So the question is which defense will be more dominant? 

The staple for the Steelers offense recently has been a balanced attack. If the balance isn’t there, they will not be able to maintain the game flow that has allowed Pickett to thrive. Against the Ravens, they will be trying to find rushing room against the third-best defense in yards per rush allowed. 

We have seen this story before: When Pickett is forced to throw, the turnovers come. Now he will be facing a defense that is fourth in turnovers forced. That defense is also returning one of its best pass defenders. This seems like a recipe for disaster.

On the other side, Pittsburgh's defense does greatly outmatch the beat-up Ravens offense. We saw this matchup last week already though. When the Ravens went up against a top-three defense they simply asked Huntley to wreck the Mercedes. He did just that and made the one drive needed to win the game. 

A tough low-scoring game is in store. This game should come down to which team can make the big play to swing it in their favor. We just saw Huntley make those plays for the Ravens last week, so I am going to trust him to do it once more.

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