Bengals vs Chiefs Picks, Odds: Joe Mixon, Kadarius Toney Player Props

Bengals vs Chiefs Picks, Odds: Joe Mixon, Kadarius Toney Player Props article feature image

Pictured: Joe Mixon (left) and Kadarius Toney.

  • Sean Koerner ran the numbers and found edges for Bengals vs. Chiefs player props.
  • The Oddsmaker analyzes betting picks for Joe Mixon, Kadarius Toney and more.
  • Check out Koerner's AFC Championship Game prop analysis and picks below, plus updated odds.

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Bengals Odds+1 (-108)
Chiefs Odds-1 (-112)
Moneyline+102 / -120
Over/Under47.5 (-115 / -105)
Day/TimeSunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel.

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Chiefs vs Bengals Picks: Player Props

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Joe Burrow
Bengals Running Backs
Bengals Pass Catchers
Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs Running Backs
Chiefs Wide Receivers
Travis Kelce
Noah Gray

Bengals vs Chiefs Matchup Analysis: DVOA Breakdown

Overall DVOA417
Pass DVOA720
Rush DVOA415
Overall DVOA111
Pass DVOA112
Rush DVOA914


What They're Going Up Against

  • Chiefs pace: 3rd
  • Opposition plays allowed: 12th
  • Blitz percentage: 13th
  • Pressure rate: 5th
  • Zone vs. Man: 29th zone, 8th man

QB Joe Burrow

Burrow is playing at an elite level right now. While this would typically be a spot to invest in the Bengals' passing attack, though, Patrick Mahomes' injury could actually hinder it.

The Chiefs are likely going to play at a slower pace and rely on a more run-heavy, short-passing attack than usual. We saw this last week agains the Jaguars, when Kansas City was able to engineer multiple drives of more than 6 minutes and limit Jacksonville's time of possession.

That could be the case again this week, so we have to be careful when considering Bengals overs.

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RBs Joe Mixon & Samaje Perine

The only prop I'm seeing value on for the Bengals' is Mixon's receptions under. He's been held under 3.5 catches for two straight games, and Perine has been much more active in the passing game. Perine has a 49% routes run rate over the Bengals' last two games, while Mixon is at 31%.

You have to wonder whether Cincinnati will continue to use Perine heavily given its issues on the offensive line. He's the better pass blocker (72 Pro Football Focus grade) and hasn't allowed a sack, while Mixon (30) has been credited with allowing three.

Also, Perine has been getting all of the snaps in the Bengals' 2-minute offense, which is where running backs really rack up the catches.

I'm projecting Mixon for closer to three receptions here, staying under 3.5 at 62% of the time. I'd bet this down to about -135.

Pick: Joe Mixon Under 3.5 Receptions (-118)

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Bengals Pass Catchers: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd & Hayden Hurst

I'm in line with all of the props for Bengals wide receivers and tight ends.

Chase gets the biggest boost from the matchup since the Chiefs use man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. His yards per route run go from 1.61 against zone to 3.52 against man.

Sportsbooks will have to inflate Chase's market since more than 90% of the action will be on his over no matter what, so I'm in line with his receiving yardstotal at 82.5.

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What They're Going Up Against

  • Bengals pace: 11th
  • Opposition plays allowed: 22nd
  • Blitz percentage: 23rd
  • Pressure rate: 13th
  • Zone vs. Man: 22nd zone, 11th man

QB Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes will attempt to play through a high ankle sprain, and his effectiveness will have a massive impact on nearly every prop market in this game.

This won’t be the first time Mahomes will play through a high ankle sprain. Back in Week 1 of the 2019 season, he suffered a high ankle sprain but threw for 443 yards and 4 touchdowns the following week against the Raiders

Mahomes faces a much tougher test this time out against a Bengals defense, led by defensive coordinator Lou Anamuro, who will likely have a game plan that takes advantage of his lack of mobility and will makes in-game adjustments as necessary.

I’m in line with the market on Mahomes’ props and have no desire to bet directly on him (as of Wednesday afternoon).

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RBs Isiah Pacheco & Jerick McKinnon

The Chiefs will likely lean on their run game a bit more with Mahomes playing at less than 100%.

The Bengals rank 14th in DVOA against the run, but that rank is a bit misleading considering they were without run stuffer DJ Reader for six games this season. Cincinnati has allowed a 3.6 yards/rush with him on the field this year compared to a 4.6 yards/rush with him off the field.

I showed value on Pacheco's receptions under at 1.5 (-165, BetMGM), but that number ballooned to -190 on Wednesday. Pacheco has only caught 2+ passes in four games this season, and it’s hard to see how he clears this based on his underlying data. He’s only averaging a 29% routes run rate over the last six games.

This is a spot where the Chiefs will likely use Jerrick McKinnon even more to help pass block for the injured Mahomes. There is also a chance that Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be able to return to action this week, which will only lower my routes run projection for Pacheco.

I’m projecting Pacheco closer to 1.0 receptions and a 70% chance to stay under this number. I would bet this down to -185, so be sure to monitor the market to see if we get back down to that number at any point during the week.

The best number as of 4 p.m. ET on Thursday is -200 at BetMGM.

Lean: Isiah Pacheco Under 1.5 Receptions (Play at -185 or better)

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WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdez-Scantling & Kadarius Toney

JuJu Smith-Schuster has only been targeted on 8% of his routes run over the last three games. I’m expecting his usage to increase significantly with Mahomes likely needing to get the ball out quicker this week.

Smith-Schuster, McKinnon and Travis Kelce will likely be the focal points of the passing attack with Mahomes mobility compromised this week. Valdez-Scantling might see the biggest downgrade this week because Mahomes may be less willing to hang in the pocket and target him downfield. A quick, short area passing attack would not be favorable to Valdez-Scantling (Average Depth of Target of 16.1) and Justin Watson (20.0).

The only WR prop I’m showing value on is Kadarius Toney under 35.5 receiving yards.

This may seem counterintuitive since I do think the Chiefs are more likely to utilize Toney in their quick, short-passing attack this week. However, his usage is likely already maxed out as he will likely only run a route on about 30% of Mahomes drop backs. I expect them to use a lot more two- or three-tight end sets to ensure Mahomes is getting max protection.

Toney has also seen a target on 33% of his routes run over the past five games. That sort of target rate is unsustainable, and I think the Bengals will assume he’s getting the ball when he is on the field.

Toney also only averaging an Average Depth of Target of 1.4 over the last five games, and he will likely need a ton of volume to clear this number (he needed five catches to get to 36 yards last week).

The Chiefs have been using Toney more in the running game over the past two games, and I can see that trend continuing. There is also a chance that Mecole Hardman returns to action this week, which could lead to a couple less snaps for Toney this week.

I’m projecting Toney's median closer to 28.5 and would bet this down to 32.5.

Pick: Kadarius Toney Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

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TE Travis Kelce

The Jaguars rank 32nd in DVOA against TEs, and it showed last week. They didn't have an answer for Kelce, who he posted a massive 14/98/2 receiving line.

The Bengals are a much tougher test, ranking fifth during the regular season in DVOA against TEs, but Kelce is matchup proof and I’m in line with his prop markets for this game.

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TE Noah Gray

I’m expecting the Chiefs to use two and three tight ends at a higher rate in order to protect Mahomes in the pocket, so Gray should run a route on 45-50% of Mahomes’ dropbacks.

Therefore, I’m showing some slight value on Gray over 1.5 receptions +135 at DraftKings. However, he has only been targeted on 6% of his routes run the last four games, so I’m not comfortable locking in this bet.

Lean: Noah Gray Over 1.5 Receptions +125 (DraftKings)

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