49ers vs Eagles Odds: Expert Player Prop Picks for DeVonta Smith, Miles Sanders, More
Pictured: Jauan Jennings (left) and DeVonta Smith.
- Sean Koerner ran the numbers and found edges for 49ers vs. Eagles player props.
- Koerner lays out his favorite picks for the NFC Championship game: DeVonta Smith, Miles Sanders and Jauan Jennings.
- Check out Koerner's 49ers vs. Eagles analysis and picks below, plus updated odds.
|49ers Odds||+2.5 (-105)|
|Eagles Odds||-2.5 (-115)|
|Moneyline||+126 / -148|
|Over/Under||46.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||Sunday, 3 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel.|
Eagles vs 49ers Picks: Player Props
49ers vs. Eagles Matchup Analysis: DVOA Breakdown
What They're Going Up Against
- Eagles pace: 1st
- Opposition plays allowed: 23rd
- Blitz percentage: 16th
- Pressure rate: 2nd
- Zone vs. Man: 12th zone, 18th man
QB Brock Purdy
From day one, I have said Purdy could rush for 20 or more yards per game if he wanted to. He has the speed and elusiveness to do so, but he has only leveraged his rushing ability to escape pressure to throw instead of scramble so far as a starter.
The Eagles have generated the second-highest pressure rate on the season, so there's a chance they force Purdy out of the pocket enough that he does scramble once or twice and rush for 15 or more yards.
Purdy's scramble rate has been so low, I can’t project him for more than 8.5 yards, but I would not be surprised if he clears 10 yards with his legs in this game.
RBs Christian McCaffrey & Elijah Mitchell
McCaffrey (calf) and Mitchell (groin) missed practice Tuesday, so we will have to monitor their injuries throughout the week. Neither back is expected to miss the game, but it does make it tricky to project them right now.
Mitchell doesn’t have a rushing yard prop up yet, but I will be looking to back his over if it’s below 40.5. I like the 49ersmoneyline in this spot, and Mitchell's rushing over would also be the perfect prop to include in a SGP.
WR Brandon Aiyuk
Aiyuk has a tough matchup this week as he will likely line up across from either Darius Slay or James Bradberry most of the time. He’s talented enough to overcome the difficult matchup and has cleared this number in 5 of 8 games with Brock Purdy under center. This isn’t a market I’ll be looking to invest in this week.
WR Deebo Samuel
With CMC/Mitchell both banged up, we could see Deebo used more in the backfield this week. Kyle Shanahan will also likely use him out of the slot more in order to avoid Slay/Bradberry coverage and create mismatches. Deebo clearly offers a ton of upside in both his rushing and receiving markets, but as of now, I’m in line with the market.
WR Jauan Jennings
Jennings has lined up in the slot at the highest rate (53%) of all the 49ers pass catchers. There is a chance Kyle Shanahan uses Samuel or Aiyuk in the slot more this week to keep them away from Eagles cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the outside. That would likely kick Jauan on the outside to face either Slay/Bradberry, which would severely lower his expected target rate.
I've projected Jennings to draw about three targets this week, and most of those will likely come when he is lined up in the slot, which comes with a lower Average Depth of Target (at a lower aDot).
With that, I think the market we need to target is his longest reception to stay under 14.5 yards (-125 at BetMGM). Jennings only cleared this number in seven of 17 games, but he has topped it in both of the 49ers' playoffs games. That means they're inflating his number.
I’m projecting Jennings to stay under this about 60% of the time and would bet this down to -130.
Pick: Jauan Jennings Longest Reception Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
TE George Kittle
I’m showing some slight value on Kittle to go under 47.5 yards (projected median of 42.5) since this is a tough matchup. The Eagles rank sixth in DVOA against TEs and have only allowed five TEs to clear this number.
I don’t think there’s enough value to warrant a bet on Kittle’s under, and we are already sort of investing in that with our DeVonta Smith bet, which you'll read about below.
What They're Going Up Against
- 49ers pace: 26th
- Opposition plays allowed: 28th
- Blitz percentage: 21st
- Pressure rate: 11th
- Zone vs. Man: 5th zone, 27th man
QB Jalen Hurts
This is a matchup of strength vs. strength as the Eagles (No. 1 Rush DVOA) face a 49ers defense that ranks second in Rush DVOA. It’s a game where the Eagles may not be as efficient running the ball, which could force Hurts into more pass situations on third down or due to a trailing game script.
The 49ers are also fairly vulnerable to downfield pass attempts. They've allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt average on pass attempts of 20 or more yards down the field. Hurts has some sneaky upside as a passer in this spot, but I’m in line with the market in the 245-250 range.
The 49ers haven’t faced many dual-threat QBs, but the ones they have faced have been pretty much in-line with expectations: Dak Prescott (4/22/0), Geno Smith (4/28/0), Jarrett Stidham (7/34/0), Justin Herbert (5/22/0), Russell Wilson (6/17/0), Justin Fields (11/28/0).
I’m in line with the market on Hurts' rushing prop, as his prop makes sense in the 45-50 range.
RB Miles Sanders
To illustrate just how valuable a rush attempt is worth in this range, here is what I’m projecting for Sanders:
- Over 13.5 (53.6%) Under 13.5 (46.4%)
- Over 14.5 (43%) Under 14.5 (57%)
- Over 15.5 (33.1%) Under 15.5 (66.9%)
As you can see, I have Sanders finishing with 15 rush attempts (exactly) around 10% of the time. I would stay away from betting this at 14.5, but keep an eye if it goes back up to 15.5.
I’m currently showing value on Sanders Under 1.5 receptions at -165 at at BetMGM, as of Thursday afternoon. Sanders has been held under this number in six straight games and the underlying data suggests this trend should continue.
Over the last four games, Sanders is only averaging a 26% routes run rate while Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott continue to eat into his receiving usage. Sanders typically isn’t in on third downs or when the Eagles run their 2-minute drill, which are the ideal times for a RB to pick up targets.
Plus, Hurts is more likely to scramble as opposed to check down to his running back, so there are a ton of factors going against Sanders in this market.
I’m projecting him closer to 1.1 receptions and a 70% chance to stay under 1.5. We are getting quite a bit of value here considering his fair price should be closer to -230. I would bet this down to -180.
Pick: Miles Sanders Under 1.5 receptions (-165)
WR A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown is dealing with a hip injury and might not be 100% for this game.
The 49ers play zone at the fifth-highest rate, which isn’t ideal for Brown. He has a 3.27 yards per route run rate vs. man and a 1.93 mark vs. zone this season.
I’m showing some slight value on his under 70.5 receiving yards (projected median closer to 66.5), but he has a wide range of outcomes this week. I think we can exploit that in my DeVonta Smith play below.
WR DeVonta Smith
I simulated the game 10,000 times to pull odds of “most receiving yards in the game” and here is what it spit out:
- A.J. Brown 28.8%
- DeVonta Smith 28.2%
- Deebo Samuel 11.5%
- Dallas Goedert 11.0%
- George Kittle 8.5%
- Brandon Aiyuk 6.5%
- Christian McCaffrey 3.0%
- Quez Watkins 1.5%
- Jauan Jennings 1.0%
Based on these, I’m getting a fair price of +250 for Smith to lead the game in receiving yards, but I think there are several factors that make him even more valuable in this market.
Brown is dealing with a hip injury, so he may not be 100% and could be used as more of a decoy. He also fares much better against man coverage, so he's less likely to thrive against a zone heavy team like the 49ers. Dallas Goedert may see Fred Warner in coverage at times, and Warner is playing at an elite level right now. He even prevented CeeDee Lamb from catching a couple of passes last week.
Smith will likely be Jalen Hurts top target in what should be a more pass-heavy game script we typically see from the Eagles, who are also likely going to face more third-down situations this week. Smith has been Hurts’ top target on third downs this year.
The 49ers have been vulnerable to downfield targets this year. They’ve allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt on pass attempts of 20 or more yards down the field.
The 49ers have a ton of weapons in the passing game, which means Purdy will likely spread the ball around, which lowers the ceiling of each pass catcher. Plus, the Eagles rank first in pass DVOA and 21st against the run. The 49ers will likely lean on their run game in this matchup.
I like the value we are getting on Smith to lead the game in receiving yards at +270 (FanDuel) and would bet it down to +240.
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TE Dallas Goedert
Goedert took advantage of the easy matchup last week against a Giants defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against TEs with a 5/58/1 line. Now, he faces a stingy 49ers defense that could use Warner to cover him at times this week.
I’m in line with Goedert's market this week, but he has a bit of a statistical anomaly this year in that despite averaging 4.6 receptions a game, he has yet to have a game where he finishes with four receptions exactly, despite it being his most likely outcome (18.8%).