Bengals vs. Dolphins Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds: How to Play This Battle of Bad Teams
Brad Penner-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ryan Fitzpatrick.
- Our experts preview the Week 16 NFL matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins.
- The Bengals could still secure the No. 1 overall draft pick with a victory while the Dolphins have more to lose by winning.
- With the stakes in mind, our experts make their pick. You'll also find betting odds and Sean Koerner's power ratings below.
Bengals at Dolphins Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds
- Odds: Pick ’em
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
They’re two of the worst teams in the league, which makes Sunday’s game between the Bengals and Dolphins a game (possibly) beloved by gamblers.
Our experts a battle between the Miami receivers and the Cincinnati secondary in a game that currently has no favorite. Find their picks below.
Bengals-Dolphins Injury Report
A.J. Green (ankle) still isn’t practicing, and he confirmed that he’s unlikely to play this week or in Week 17. Joe Mixon was added to their report on Thursday with a calf injury, but his limited practice suggests he may be on track to play on Sunday.
Three receivers on Miami popped up on the injury report with DeVante Parker (hip), Albert Wilson (hip) and Allen Hurns (ankle/knee) all getting in limited work on Wednesday. They’re probably on track to suit up. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Dolphins WR DeVante Parker vs. Bengals CB Willie Jackson
As I mention in my Week 16 WR/CB breakdown, the Bengals played sides with their cornerbacks early in the year. After losing No. 1 corner Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7, however, they have tended to use Jackson in perimeter shadow coverage.
I understand the tactic, and Jackson’s not a bad defender, but he’s prone to allow big games, and I don’t like the matchup for him.
Just a few games ago in Week 13, Jackson shadowed Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson, who is comparable to Parker physically and in playing style, and Jackson allowed a 10-107-0 receiving stat line on 11 targets.
Jackson is exploitable, and Parker has the skills to beat him.
With a career-high 954 yards and eight touchdowns, Parker has finally broken out in his fifth season. Since quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick returned to the starting lineup in Week 7, Parker has averaged 80.6 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game on 8.2 targets and 5.1 receptions.
And Parker’s numbers have been even more impressive since he emerged as the team’s clear top receiver in the absence of teammate Preston Williams (knee, IR), who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9.
In Parker’s five full games without Williams, he has averaged 105.2 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 9.6 targets and 5.8 receptions per game. In his current form, Parker is a full-blown No. 1 receiver.
The Bengals are No. 27 in pass defense, and they are specifically No. 30 against No. 1 receivers (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).
Against the Bengals secondary and Jackson in particular, Parker could go off with a 150-yard, multi-touchdown effort. — Matthew Freedman
Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Pick ‘Em
- Projected Total: 46
I’m close to the market here, so this is a pass for me. — Sean Koerner
Freedman: Dolphins (up to -2.5)
Even with quarterback Andy Dalton back in the starting lineup, I have no respect for the 1-13 Bengals, who are No. 32 with 15.1 points per game.
In Dalton’s 11 starts, they have a point differential of -9, having allowed 25.2 points and scored just 16.2.
The Dolphins aren’t much better — they’re No. 32 with 31.1 points per game allowed — but the Dolphins are at least giving full effort and playing as if they actually care about winning.
And they have been significantly better since their Week 5 bye.
- Weeks 1-4 (four games): -34.3 point differential, 6.5 points scored, 40.8 points allowed
- Weeks 5-15 (10 games): -5.7 point differential, 21.5 points scored, 27.2 points allowed
After going 0-4 against the spread in September, the Dolphins are 7-3 ATS (35% ROI) since the bye week.
Freedman is 522-393-22 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.