Bills vs. Saints Odds, Predictions, Picks: Our NFL Expert’s Thanksgiving Night Football Betting Preview
Getty Images. Pictured: Bills WR Stefon Diggs and QB Josh Allen (left), Saints QBs Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill (right)
Bills vs. Saints Odds
|Time||8:20 p.m. ET|
The Bills opened up as 4.5-point road favorites against the Saints. However, due to 69% of the action coming in on Buffalo (check real-time public betting data here) and the Saints ruling out a handful of key players, the line has risen as high as 6.5 at some sportsbooks.
Bills vs. Saints Matchup
|Bills Offense||DVOA Rank||Saints Defense|
|Bills Defense||DVOA Rank||Saints Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Bills Record Doesn’t Reflect Talent
My updated line for this game is Buffalo -7.5, so I feel the play here is to back the favorite. The Bills are 6-4 despite being one of the most balanced, well-coached teams in the league. Their record is misleading in that it doesn’t reflect just how dominant they have been this year.
They rank first in the NFL in average game time leading (38:25) and trailing (10:17). Based on the amount of time the Bills have spent leading/trailing/tied, my Expected Wins metric would assume they would be 9-1. The market certainly isn’t treating the Bills like a 9-1 team, especially coming off of a 41-15 blowout loss to the Colts last week. Therefore, I see this as a sneaky buy-low opportunity for what I consider a top-four team.
Saints Struggling With Injuries
The Saints are dealing with a cluster of injuries to key players on both sides of the ball. Typically, the market overreacts when a single player is ruled out, but tends to overlook how a handful of players can significantly impact a team.
The Saints will be without RB Alvin Kamara, TE Adam Trautman, RT Ryan Ramczyk, DE Marcus Davenport and DE Tanoh Kpassagnon, while RB Mark Ingram II and LT Terron Armstead remain questionable. Ingram being ruled out would mean the Saints will be without their top-two RBs, and Armstead being ruled out would mean they would be without their top-two offensive linemen.
NFL Pick: Bills vs. Saints
This is a rare time where I’m going with a public favorite. Given my projected line, the Bills are playing much better than their 6-4 record would indicate, and with the Saints’ injury report I am easily laying the points with the Bills.
I would project the Bills closer to -8.5 if both Ingram and Armstead are ruled out. Therefore I think it’s key to lock in this number in at 6.5 before it potentially moves to 7 with more injury news.
Pick: Bills -6.5 | Bet to: -6.5
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