Bills vs. Saints Props: Bettors Hoping the Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs Connection Pays Off This NFL Thanksgiving

Bills vs. Saints Props: Bettors Hoping the Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs Connection Pays Off This NFL Thanksgiving article feature image
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Joshua Bessex

  • Bettors are banking on the Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs paying off when the Bills face the Saints on NFL Thanksgiving.
  • Find out which of their NFL player props are among the most popular for Thursday's holiday slate.

Bills vs. Saints Odds

Bills Odds -5.5
Saints Odds +5.5
Bills Moneyline -250
Saints Moneyline +200
Over/Under 45.5
Date Thursday, Nov. 25
Time 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel CBS

Odds are according to PointsBet as of Thursday.

The Buffalo Bills will look to get back on track when they travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints on Thanksgiving Day.

The advanced analytics seem to be failing us regarding the Bills. Buffalo was ranked No. 1 in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA for weeks — and even after they lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars 9-6.

Up until last week, with the seventh-best win percentage in football, the Bills were still ranked No. 1. After an embarrassing loss to the Colts, though, the Bills finally dropped down to No. 5 overall.

Their defense is still solid — and still ranked No. 1 in defensive DVOA — but Josh Allen has looked like a complete fraud as of late. He’s averaging just over two turnovers per game over his last three weeks and has consistently made horrible reads.

The Bills are now second in the AFC East behind the New England Patriots and barely clinging onto the No. 7 seed in the AFC. They’re just a half-game up on the Colts entering play this week.

Meanwhile, the Saints are mired in a playoff battle themselves. Like the Bills, they currently occupy the No. 7 seed in the NFC, but an injury to starting quarterback Jameis Winston has left them inconsistent offensively.

Since the injury, the Saints have lost three straight: a home game against a terrible Atlanta Falcons team, another on the road against a good Tennessee Titans team and away at a streaking Philadelphia Eagles team.

Still, this is the best run defense in the NFL. If somehow they figure out how to get consistent quarterback play out of Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian, this squad could very well find itself in the playoffs.

With Buffalo favored by 5.5, the public is absolutely annihilating the Bills spread. About 92% of the total money is on the Bills to cover by that margin.

The public is also hammering these three player props associated with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs.

Bills vs. Saints Props

  1. Josh Allen to throw for more than 280.5 passing yards (-110)
  2. Stefon Diggs to score a touchdown at any time (+125)
  3. Stefon Diggs to record more than 80.5 receiving yards (-115)

Allen has topped 280 yards passing in just four of his 10 games this season.

That implies odds of about +150.

With how good the Saints’ run defense is, I’d also expect the Bills to go to the air far more often than they normally would. Still, do you trust Josh Allen after the stinkers he’s put up this month?

That’s your own judgment call to make. For what it’s worth, the Saints are No. 14 in the NFL at pass defense, according to DVOA.

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The other two props involve Stefon Diggs. He’s scored a touchdown in four of his last five contests.

Touchdown props are difficult to empirically analyze on the aggregate. They’re generally pretty random and — especially for receivers — so situationally dependent. But for this one, I see solid value given how often he’s scored of late and how often the Bills are going to the air. At +125, you’re getting plus money, too.

I see less value on Diggs’ receiving yard prop. He’s reached 81 yards in just four of his 10 games. Especially with the -115 vig, I’d take my chances with his touchdown prop then call it a day.

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