The Carolina Panthers (5-5) and Atlanta Falcons (3-6) face off in NFL Week 11 on Sunday, Nov. 16. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. The game will broadcast on FOX.
The Falcons are favored by -3.5 on the spread over the Panthers (Falcons -3.5), with an over/under of 42 points. The Falcons are -190 moneyline favorites and the Panthers are +160 underdogs.
Let's get into my Panthers vs Falcons prediction for today's NFC South clash.
Panthers vs Falcons Prediction
- Panthers vs Falcons pick: Falcons 1st Half Spread -2; bet to -2.5
My Panthers vs Falcons best bet is on the Falcons to cover the first-half spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Panthers vs Falcons Odds
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 42 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 42 -110o / -110u | -190 |
Panthers vs Falcons Week 11 Preview
Carolina Panthers Betting Preview: Lack of Consistency the Key
The NFC South as a whole is an enigma, and the team that has been the hardest to predict is the Panthers.
The Panthers enter this matchup at .500 on the season, following their last two games, which included a win over Green Bay and a loss to New Orleans.
To the Panthers' credit, they have done some things well that have propelled them to their current record, such as revitalizing their running game with Rico Dowdle and forcing stops in their own territory, as they rank sixth in opponent red-zone scoring rate.
Those two things alone have helped shorten games and keep them competitive, but their consistency is a question mark, especially when they are outmatched in other crucial areas, like they will be today.
On paper, the Panthers should be able to run the ball effectively against an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in yards per rush and 19th in EPA per rush. However, we've seen the Falcons have success at home against run-heavy offenses, as they demonstrated against Buffalo.
It would not be surprising to see the Falcons force Bryce Young to beat them through the air.
Atlanta's pass rush has been excellent, ranking eighth in opponent completion percentage. Young having success throwing against heavy boxes is no guarantee either.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview: Healthy Falcons Motivated
As for the Falcons, they are a great team to buy low on.
They come into this matchup having dropped four straight, but they are getting healthier on the offensive side of the ball and should come out motivated at home.
For Atlanta, it all starts on the ground with Bijan Robinson, who should see plenty of work against a Carolina defense that ranks 20th in yards per rush. Robinson's early down success will open things up for Michael Penix Jr. and company through the air.
Penix has had his inconsistencies, but he has consistently shown he will push the ball down the field, averaging 8.6 yards per completion at home this season. The Panthers do not generate much of a pass rush and, as a result, have allowed more than their fair share of chunk plays.
Panthers vs Falcons Prediction, Betting Analysis
The spreads for this matchup are peculiar: the first-half line and the full-game line are very close.
While we have seen market support for the Panthers, the first-half line holding below a key number is indicative of the game script we can expect to see.
The Falcons are expected to come out strong at home, as they are overdue for a win and should succeed in multiple areas early on when the team is fresher. Take them to cover the first half spread.
Pick: Falcons 1st-Half Spread -2; bet to -2.5 (-110)
Spread
I'm taking Atlanta's first-half spread over the full-game spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I find no value in the total.
