NFL Week 1 continues on Friday, Sept. 5, when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Los Angeles Chargers at Arena Corinthians in São Paulo, Brazil. Chiefs vs Chargers will kick off at 8 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on YouTube.
The Chiefs are 3-point favorites against the Chargers (Chiefs -3) with the over/under set at 46.5. The Chiefs are -175 moneyline favorites; the Chargers are +145 underdogs.
Let's get to our NFL Brazil Chiefs vs Chargers predictions, player props and predictions, which include the spread, over/under and Travis Kelce receiving yards prop.
Chiefs vs Chargers Predictions
- Chiefs vs Chargers against the spread: Chiefs -3 (-110)
- Chiefs vs Chargers over/under: Under 46.5 (-110)
- Chiefs vs Chargers player props: Travis Kelce Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Chiefs vs Chargers Odds
NFL odds via BetMGM
- Spread: Chiefs -3 (-118), Chargers +3 (-102)
- Total: Over/Under 46.5 (-110/-110)
- Moneyline: Chiefs -175, Chargers +145
Chiefs vs Chargers Spread Prediction
By Billy Ward
The Chargers' loss of star left tackle Rashawn Slater might have been the most impactful injury of the preseason. While linemen injuries don’t catch as many headlines as injuries to skill position players do, it’s creating a cascading effect to the Chargers' offensive line, and by extension the offense.
While the Chargers had one of the better tackle duos in the league, they’re now shifting Joe Alt from right tackle to the left. That’s not as easy of a transition as it may seem, as it requires linemen to flip their footwork when defending rushers off the edge. While Alt will likely figure it out at some point this season – expect a bit of a learning curve.
That means both tackle positions are facing significant downgrades early, which could spell trouble for their offense.
The Chiefs defense carried the team last season, allowing just over 20 points per game.
If the Chargers can’t get anything going offensively, this one could get ugly in a hurry. The Chiefs used their first-round pick on a left tackle to shore up their offensive line, which is a big deal considering Patrick Mahomes was sacked thrice in both games against the Chargers last season.
The Chiefs won both of those games (though only one by more than three points), and that was before the Chargers let star pass rusher Joey Bosa walk in the offseason. Those two factors combined should make things much easier on the Chiefs this time around.
I expect Kansas City to come out firing this season after the offense was a let down for much of 2024 – to say nothing of the blowout loss in the Super Bowl – and easily cover the spread against the Chargers in Brazil.
Pick: Chiefs -3 (-110)
Chiefs vs Chargers Over/Under Pick
It's weird to think of the Chiefs and Chargers as grind-it-out, defense-first squads, but that's exactly what they've been recently.
The Chargers allowed the fewest points per game in 2024. The Chiefs weren't far behind, ranking fourth. In their first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers were top 10 in run rate. They had been 27th or lower in each of the previous three seasons. The Chargers also ranked last in seconds per play.
The Chiefs played at a league-average pace, but they remained conservative on offense.
Patrick Mahomes' yards per attempt fell to a career-low 6.8. While he posted a career-best completion rate, he failed to top 4,000 passing yards for the first time since his rookie season (when he only made one start). This is no longer a high-flying offense, particularly in the regular season.
Absences will also play a big role here.
Chiefs stud receiver Rashee Rice is suspended to begin the season. Marquise Brown injured his ankle in the first preseason game.
Mahomes could be down to just Xavier Worthy and 35-year-old Travis Kelce in the season opener. The Chargers were dealt a brutal blow losing All-Pro left tackle Rashawn Slater to a season-ending knee injury. They've historically struggled on offense when Slater has missed time.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs Chargers Player Props: Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce has had an amazing run in life. He's won three Super Bowls and is now engaged to Taylor Swift.
I generally prefer to bet overs rather than unders because I find them more fun to sweat, but I'm taking the under on the near 36-year-old veteran in his Week 1 matchup against the Chargers.
Kelce's target share has diminished over the last couple of seasons, both of these teams want to run the ball (which means fewer plays for each offense), and this has historically been a difficult matchup for him.
Kelce's been held to 45 or fewer receiving yards in three of his last four games against the Chargers when Derwin James has been active.
Pick: Travis Kelce Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
