When making NFL season-long touchdown bets, I'm hunting long shots.
Touchdowns can be so random, even over a full season. Rushing attempts and targets are higher volume and thus more predictable, which leads to more predictable results for receptions and yardage. But touchdowns are a far smaller sample, and that means variance.
If I'm betting touchdown leader bets, then there's only one way to go: long shots.
And while anyone can rack up a surprising number of touchdowns, often the best way to do so is the easiest — by scoring from a yard or two out the old-school way: simply running it in.
Below are four long-shot TD bets I'm looking at, built around running backs that could rack up short-yardage and goal-line carries.
NFL Touchdown Leaders Predictions
Chris Rodgriguez Jr. (+1100)
No one seems quite certain how Liam Coen will utilize Jacksonville's three-headed RB monster this season, with Rodriguez, Bhayshul Tuten, and LeQuint Allen all expected to be in the mix.
Tuten is currently expected to be the lead back, at least between the 20s, and Allen is a good pass catcher and could have a late-down role. But Rodriguez seems to be clearly positioned as the short-yardage and goal-line back based on everything coming out of camp, after Coen made a point of reuniting with his former Kentucky player in free agency.
Tuten is a small back and may not be built to handle a huge workload, so it makes sense to use the bigger Rodriguez at the goal line and save Tuten some hits.
Jacksonville's touchdown leader last season was the departed Travis Etienne with 13 TDs effectively up for grabs. In fact, Trevor Lawrence was second with nine rushing scores, so the receivers were not in this mix.
The Jaguars had 11 rushing scores last season from inside the 5-yard-line. If Rodriguez gets a bunch of those after a career-high six scores last year, he should be in the mix for the Jacksonville lead.
Tyler Allgeier (+2800)
Jeremiyah Love doesn't have any problem scoring touchdowns. He had 19 and 21 in his last two seasons at Notre Dame, and he'll likely find the end zone early and often in his NFL career.
Love is my Offensive Rookie of the Year bet at +550, but he also enters the year with a high ankle sprain. That means Love is always a risk for re-injury, and it could also mean the coaching staff tries to protect Love by giving some of his short-yardage looks to a deep RB room.
Well, a potentially deep RB room.
James Conner and Trey Benson are on IR to start the season, so free-agent signing Tyler Allgeier is the only real alternative to start the season.
Allgeier scored 20 TDs the last four seasons with the Falcons despite never really being "the guy," and you don't have to tell fantasy owners, who were constantly annoyed that Allgeier was stealing Bijan Robinson's scores.
Allgeier actually had more rushing TDs than Robinson last season, though Bijan finished as the team TD leader thanks to his pass-catching prowess.
Arizona is in for a long season and may not score a ton of touchdowns, so this may not even take double digits. Take a nibble.
Braelon Allen (+5000)
Speaking of not many touchdowns, the Jets' leader in TDs last season was Breece Hall — with just five.
Four of those came on the ground, and Hall's career high is just five rushing TDs. Hall is a good all-around back that does a lot of things well, but short-yardage situations are not one of his strengths.
I bet Allen in this spot a year ago, but he got only 18 carries and ended the season on IR after playing in just four games. I'm running back the same angle at even longer odds.
Allen is a big, powerful back at 250 pounds, and Jets coaches have talked up his potential as a short-yardage guy. Allen needs to cut the fumbles so he doesn't lose his opportunity, but now that he's healthy, he should have a great opportunity. There may be a few extra looks with Justin Fields' legs out of the picture too.
At the end of the day, it's totally plausible something like five TDs takes this one again with the Jets. This number is just too long for the guy that may get New York's easiest looks.
Rhamondre Stevenson NFL Rushing TDs Leader (+6000)
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 5.5 Rushing TDs (-125)
When I think about betting the NFL rushing TDs leader market, I almost always look first at Josh McDaniels' offense.
McDaniels' numbers speak for themselves. The Patriots ranked 4th in the league in rushing TDs last year with McDaniels in charge, and that's not exactly new.
McDaniels has been offensive coordinator for 14 New England seasons. New England's rushing TDs rank in those seasons: 4, 2, 6, 10, 4, 6, 5, 11, 12, 2, 1, 4, 5, and 4.
That is remarkable consistency: top 12 in 100% of those seasons, and top six in 10 of the 13 (77%).
When McDaniels is in charge, he likes his teams to take the safe route and run the ball into the end zone.
Ready for a blast from the past?
Stevan Ridley ran for 12 scores under McDaniels. Damien Harris ran for 15 five seasons ago. LeGarrette Blount led the league with 18 in 2016. These are not superstar RBs, not even close. They're just big backs finding the end zone early and often.
There's little question which Patriots back is better suited for short-yardage work.
TreVeyon Henderson has the juice to break a long score at any time — if he can even get healthy and on the field, which looks like a big question entering the year — but Stevenson is the bigger, more powerful back built for short yardage.
Stevenson ran for seven scores last season. Henderson actually outpaced him with nine thanks to a few long ones, and Drake Maye had four himself. New England's offense should be even better this season, so there should be plenty of TDs to go around, probably north of 20 on the ground.
I like Stevenson to get at least six of those and go over his 5.5 rushing TDs line, like he's done each of the past two seasons, and I think he's in play to lead the league, especially if Henderson struggles to find playing time.
I'm betting Rhamondre Stevenson at 60-to-1 as a long shot to lead the league in rushing scores.
