We're continuing to dig through awards bets for the 2026 NFL season, and today we'll consider Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY).
Everyone loves an exciting rookie story, rising from the college ranks and making an immediate impact in the pros. This year’s NFL Draft saw QB Fernando Mendoza go at the top, with RB Jeremiyah Love just two picks later.
Quarterbacks typically dominate NFL Rookie of the Year, but this year it looks like there’s no Opening Day rookie starting QB. The lack of QB options could make for an entertaining and potentially wide-open OROY race.
Let's build a historical OROY winner profile and then dive into all the names to consider and make a few picks.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Price |
|---|---|
| Jeremiyah Love | +470 |
| Carnell Tate | +550 |
| Fernando Mendoza | +600 |
| Jadarian Price | +650 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | +1000 |
| Makai Lemon | +1500 |
| KC Concepcion | +2000 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | +2200 |
| Denzel Boston | +2500 |
| Carson Beck | +2500 |
NFL OROY odds via FanDuel as of 2 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 3.
Who Wins Offensive Rookie of the Year?
1. Big favorites don't tend to win.
We’ve only seen three OROY winners in the last decade start the season with odds shorter than +800. Oddly enough, history says this typically isn’t an award big favorites tend to win.
Even the most recent exception to that rule, Jayden Daniels, wasn’t actually the favorite at +700, with Caleb Williams priced around +125 to start the season, much closer to the odds Kyler Murray and Saquon Barkley had when they won as clear favorites.
There’s no clear favorite entering the 2026 season, which means a quartet of co-favorites at the top of the market: Fernando Mendoza, Jeremiyah Love, Carnell Tate, and Jadarian Price.
This should be an immediate warning sign, thinking back to last season when Cam Ward and Ashton Jeanty entered the year as co-favorites, around +300 at most books.
Ward won three games all season and looked terrible for most of the campaign, and Jeanty was a first-round pick in most fantasy drafts but struggled as a rookie and didn’t even rush for 1,000 yards, finishing outside the top-10 fantasy RBs.
Favorites can win, but they usually don't.
2. Almost any position can win, but QBs tend to be the best bet.
Five of the last 10 OROYs were quarterbacks. Go back further and it's 8-of-16 and 11-of-21.
The math is pretty consistent — about a 50/50 chance the OROY will be a quarterback any given season.
That could make things interesting in a year where only two QBs went in the first two rounds, and one of them, Ty Simpson, to a team with the reigning MVP playing at QB.
This used to be a running back award. Historically, 61% of OROYs played the position. Running backs won five of the first eight OROYs at the start of the century, but have only taken 4-of-18 since.
We've had seven wide receiver winners in the last three decades — about one every four or five years — but some noticeable misses, too.
Justin Jefferson had 1,400 yards as a rookie and he didn't win, and three years ago, Puka Nacua came from out of nowhere to post a historic rookie season (105 catches for 1,486 yards). He got two of the 50 first-place votes for OROY as C.J. Stroud cruised to victory.
The next year, Brock Bowers broke rookie tight end records, but Jayden Daniels won the award easily.
No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won Offensive Rookie of the Year.
3. Draft slot is incredibly predictive — and we almost certainly need a first-round pick.
Over the last two decades, a remarkable 17 OROY winners (85%) were drafted in the first round.
It gets better!
Sixteen of the 20 were top-12 picks, and 11 were taken in the top seven, with nearly half in just the top three picks alone.
That's an 80% shot at finding the OROY in the first 12 picks and almost 50/50 in just the top three.
Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud were both drafted second overall. Garrett Wilson and Ja'Marr Chase were top 10. Justin Herbert, Murray and Barkley went sixth, first, and second, respectively. Turns out teams are pretty good at drafting star talent!
Our last eight OROY winners were all drafted in the top 10.
Of course, it helps that these guys were joining bad teams with a clear path to playing time.
It's worth noting that running back is the one position that sometimes strays from the first-round trend.
Alvin Kamara (No. 67) and Eddie Lacy (61) won from outside the first round in the last 12 years, and Clinton Portis (51), Anthony Thomas (38) and Mike Anderson (189) won earlier this century.
The only non-RBs to win from outside the first round in the last three decades were Dak Prescott and Anquan Boldin.
4. Voters care more about big stats than winning.
Winning doesn't seem to be a huge focus for OROY.
Over the last 15 years, only five OROYs have been on teams that won at least 10 games. In fact, eight of them — over half — played for a team that finished below .500.
Of course, winning never hurts.
Any quarterback leading a team to the playoffs will always have a case, as evidenced by Daniels and Stroud winning over historical statistical seasons from Bowers and Nacua. But Herbert, Murray, Cam Newton and Sam Bradford won OROY with bad records.
This isn't a winner's award — it's about the numbers, and you need a lot.
Over the last decade, a typical OROY RB needs at least 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs, typically a top-10 fantasy RB. A winning receiver likely needs around 80 catches, 1,100 yards and eight scores to even have a shot.
Quarterbacks are tougher because of varying rushing stats, but a typical QB winner has averaged around 4,000 combined yards and 30+ touchdowns, often adding frequent ground production, and always ending up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
So what are we looking for in an OROY?
We want a first-round draft pick, preferably a top-12 pick.
Any main position will do, but QB is typically best. And stats matter much more than winning, but a winning QB, like usual, tends to trump everything else.
Alright, we've got a slew of names to consider in a deep offensive class. Let's look at them in bunches, starting at the top with the favorites and whittling the field down to my best bets as we build an OROY position.
Why Fernando Mendoza is a No Bet
QB Fernando Mendoza, Raiders +600 (FanDuel)
We have no idea when Mendoza will take the reins from veteran Kirk Cousins — ultimately, the rookie will get the nod when head coach Klint Kubiak decides he's ready.
The Raiders have a tough schedule. It starts out easy at home against the Dolphins before a gauntlet of tough defenses (Chargers, Saints, Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams).
There's really no great spot to ease in Mendoza early — and we need him on the field for this award, considering 13 of the last 15 OROY winners played at least 15 games. Only one QB since 2010 even got votes playing single-digit games.
Even if Mendoza were a Day 1 starter, the Raiders will likely have a run-heavy offense and a guy that won’t add many rushing stats, with the second worst WRs in the league. It's hard to see big stats here, and Mendoza likely won’t get many wins.
This is an easy pass for me at a price that can only go down as Mendoza sits.
Pass on These Pass-Catchers
WR Jordyn Tyson, Saints +8000 (FanDuel)
The eighth pick in the NFL Draft, Jordyn Tyson is as electric as they come — but he's constantly battled injuries and is already on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
Tyson is an easy no bet right now while he's on IR. That said, keep an eye on him if no one in this rookie class emerges. We saw Odell Beckham Jr. win this with 12 games late.
WR Makai Lemon, Eagles +1800 (Caesars)
Being the fourth or fifth target on a run-heavy offense isn't exactly appealing.
Lemon's also dealt with a recurring hamstring issue and isn't integrated into the offense entering the regular season. No thanks.
WR Omar Cooper Jr., Jets +6500 (DraftKings)
TE Kenyon Sadiq, Jets +6600 (BetMGM)
No tight end has ever won this award. As for Cooper, he had a rough training camp.
Buzzy Names Who Have No Chance
WR De'Zhaun Stribling, 49ers +1100 (DraftKings)
Now seems like a good time to remind everyone that only three of the last 20 OROY winners were not drafted in the first round.
Even if Stribling begins the season as the 49ers WR1, he's still just the third target behind Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. No 49ers receiver has hit 1,000 yards in the last two seasons — buying now means paying the price of the fifth favorite.
WR Denzel Boston, Browns +2500
WR KC Concepcion, Browns +2000
These two are fighting for targets with Jerry Jeudy and Harold Fannin Jr. The latter led the Browns in receiving yards last year while Jeudy put a respectable 50/602/2 line.
That's nowhere near enough to entice.
WR Caleb Douglas, Dolphins +8000 (Caesars)
I'm not sure being the WR1 matters when there are five other options in this run-heavy Dolphins offense.
WR Cyrus Allen, Chiefs +6600 (BetMGM)
WR Ja'Kobi Lane, Ravens +2200 (FanDuel)
Lane is the third target at best in the Ravens offense behind Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. Allen profiles more as a man-beater who may score some touchdowns. Travis Kelce will still get looks from Patrick Mahomes, not to mention Rashee Rice.
Everyone in this tier is a sucker bet right now unless you already got them before the training camp buzz.
Quarterback Sleepers
QB Ty Simpson, Rams
Simpson is a no bet right now but he's worth a long-shot ticket if Matthew Stafford some sort of long-term injury.
Just being the pivot man running point on a loaded Rams team with Super Bowl aspirations could be enough in a weak field.
QB Carson Beck, Cardinals +2800 (DraftKings)
QB Drew Allar, Steelers +10000 (BetMGM)
QB Jack Strand, Falcons +12500 (FanDuel)
Quarterbacks win this award about half the time and there aren’t many QB options this year.
If any of these guys get an early runway, they’re live by default.
Running Back Sleepers
RB Emmett Johnson, Chiefs +10000 (BetMGM)
Kenneth Walker III isn't exactly the picture of durability and Emari Demercado was cut, so Johnson enters the season No. 2 on the Chiefs depth chart and a vote of confidence from the coaching staff.
Johnson impressed in his final season at Nebraska (1,451 rushing yards, 370 receiving yards, 15 total TDs) and he's going to be involved in the passing game.
Johnson is one Walker injury away from being the starter in a Patrick Mahomes offense.
That makes him a great long-shot ticket to have at this price, and we'll make him our first bet.
RB Mike Washington Jr., Raiders +5000 (BetRivers)
This number I genuinely can’t believe.
Washington was electric in every preseason game, and Kubiak’s run-heavy system is already paying dividends at over 7.0 YPC in preseason.
We already had an Ashton Jeanty injury scare in the preseason — if that happens again, Washington is the lead back with clear OROY upside.
Mike Washington is a must-have long-shot ticket at this long price.
The Favorites
RB Jadarian Price, Seahawks +600
With Walker on the Chiefs and Zach Charbonnet on the shelf, Price will immediately get a big workload in a run-first offense.
Sounds good — but are we sure that's actually good?
Price only averaged around 700 rushing yards on 115 carries his last two seasons at Notre Dame — can he even handle a big load? This could end up working against him.
Price is also a non-factor in the passing game with only 15 receptions in three years at Notre Dame.
Look at Walker last season. He finished with 221/1,027/5 playing every game as the lead guy for a Klint Kubiak Super Bowl offense — and even those numbers probably wouldn't contend here. RBs taken late in the first round have also struggled over the past decade or two.
At +600, the Price is all wrong.
Price's value only goes down once Zach Charbonnet comes back, so this is a stock play at best — and make sure you sell later.
WR Carnell Tate, Titans +600
Carnell Tate fits my profile by draft pedigree and upside, but are we the upside is even there?
He has a clear path to being WR1, but the Titans' leading receiver last year was TE Chig Okonkwo with 56/560/2 so that’s pretty bleak.
The upside case here is probably Malik Nabers, who put up 109/1,204/7 as a rookie under new Titans OC Brian Daboll. Daboll spams what’s working and young QBs like Cam Ward sometimes do that too.
Still, investing in Daboll and Nabers as effectively a co-favorite is a tough ask.
RB Jeremiyah Love, Cardinals +550 (DraftKings)
On draft night, Jeremiyah Love emerged as the heavy OROY favorite for obvious reason, and I immediately expected I'd have to fade him in the betting markets.
But there is no need to fade the Love hype if the price no longer matches the hype.
Now that Love’s preseason ankle injury dropped him to +550 — creating basically a four-way co-favorite at the top — he is an absolute bargain at this price.
Do I even need to make the case for why he’s the most likely OROY?
Running backs drafted this high tend to get huge workload immediately. The Cardinals will likely have a run-heavy system under head coach Mike LaFleur and the left side of their offensive line is pretty good.
One of my initial concerns was how much Love would have to split carries in a talented RB room, but James Conner and Trey Benson start the year on IR, so it's just Love and Tyler Allgeier now.
The other concern with Love was the price but that’s gone up since the ankle injury. We don’t know just how bad the high ankle sprain is, but he already passed his first test and is looking possible for Week 1 — and it’s a long season, so we can live with losing a game or two.
By comparison, Ashton Jeanty was +300 on opening day last year with a similar draft pedigree and a much worse offensive line and setup – we’re getting almost double those odds with Love!
Think of it another way. Love is being priced the same as part-time Price, backup Mendoza, and the Titans' WR1 in Tate. That's insane!
A stud RB1 who was a top-3 pick is almost insulting at the same price as that competition, and that makes Jeremiyah Love a slam-dunk pick.
The Verdict
- Jeremiyah Love +550 (1 unit)
- Mike Washington Jr. +5000 (0.25 units)
- Emmett Johnson +10000 (0.1 units)
