Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) isn't the sexiest NFL award, but it's perennially one of my favorite awards to bet on.
As I continue to dive into the 2026 NFL awards, it can be pretty easy to tune out boring defense awards, but DPOY is typically one of the most predictable awards on the slate — which can mean great value for bettors.
Just like many team sports, defense doesn't garner as much attention. That often leads voters to the actual best player from a shorter list of name-brand options, without the sort of surprises and narratives that tend to make other awards more goofy and unpredictable.
Myles Garrett is the NFL's reigning DPOY after a record-breaking season with 23 sacks, though he was a bit of an outlier for this award in some ways despite the gaudy stats.
Let's start by building a historical profile of recent DPOY winners and talk about how Garrett's win fits in, then get to one of my favorite bets of the entire awards market heading into the new 2026 NFL season.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Predictions
| Group | Category |
|---|---|
| 1 | Fading the Favorite |
| 2 | Skipping Veterans & One-Dimensional Rushers |
| 3 | Fun Sleepers I'm Not Betting (Yet) |
| 4 | Anderson's DPOY Picks |
Who Usually Wins Defensive Player of the Year?
Let's try to spot some patterns from the 10 most recent DPOY winners:
- 2025 Myles Garrett, Browns
- 2024 Patrick Surtain, Broncos
- 2023 Myles Garrett, Browns
- 2022 Nick Bosa, 49ers
- 2021 T.J. Watt, Steelers
- 2020 Aaron Donald, Rams
- 2019 Stephon Gilmore, Patriots
- 2018 Aaron Donald, Rams
- 2017 Aaron Donald, Rams
- 2016 Khalil Mack, Raiders
1. The same DPOY candidates get votes year after year.
Defense is about respect.
Once the league's elite defenders earn the respect of the voting base, they tend to keep getting votes year after year. There are only 50 voters, but Aaron Donald received at least one first-place vote in seven straight seasons.
Makes sense for the best defender in the league – who’s back playing again, by the way! Donald and J.J. Watt won almost half of the last 14 DPOYs.
Only nine players have multiple DPOY awards in NFL history, and it's a Hall of Fame list – Garrett, Donald (x3), Watt (x3), Ray Lewis, Reggie White, Bruce Smith, Lawrence Taylor (x3), Mike Singletary and Joe Greene.
While the same guys keep getting votes, you better be really good to win that second DPOY.
The bigger takeaway: eight of the last 12 winners finished in the top six in DPOY voting previously — and three of the other four had made First Team All-Pro before.
There are approximately 800 defenders rostered in the NFL, and only 6-to-8 of them are really in the mix most years.
2. Modern winners get after the quarterback and rack up sacks.
Eight of the last 10 DPOY winners were pass rushers.
In 2023, the top four vote getters recorded 14, 19, 14 and 14.5 sacks. All four finished top-8 in the NFL in sacks.
Turns out it really was that simple.
The two exceptions were Patrick Surtain and Stephon Gilmore, both winning in a year without a great pass-rushing option as shutdown corners and the best player on one of the league’s true elite defenses.
The other eight winners got after the quarterback to the tune of 16.9 sacks on average their winning seasons. All eight had at least 11 sacks; half of them had over 17 — more than one per game!
The measure is clear, and the bar is very high.
3. We're looking for a defender in his prime, ideally age 25-27.
Five of the last 10 winners were between 25-to-27 years old, with an average age just under 27 over the past decade. Every single one of them was between 24 and 30 years old.
Actually, Myles Garrett is the first DPOY with a “3” at the start of his age since Charles Woodson all the way back in 2009 – and Garrett actually didn’t turn 30 until the last couple weeks of the season.
Six of the last 10 winners were 27 or younger for most of their winning season.
Tenure can also be predictive. Five of the last 10 DPOYs won in either their fourth or fifth NFL season, with the average winner in year 5.6. Garrett in Year 9 was also a slight outlier last fall.
4. This isn't a team award — DPOY is about individual brilliance.
You might assume voters just choose the best defender from the best defense (like often in the NBA), but that's not always the case.
Only four of the last 10 DPOYs played on a defense that finished in the top-10 in points allowed per game. Just six of the 10 played for teams that finished in the top-12 in Defensive DVOA.
In fact, the average DPOY played for a team ranked 11th in points allowed per game allowed and 9th in Defensive DVOA. That's not bad! But it's not exactly great, not even in the top quarter of the league.
Only three winners in the last decade finished top four in both categories — and two of them were our big outliers: Surtain and Gilmore. In fact, more DPOYs finished on teams 20th or worse in PPG allowed.
You do typically need to win games, though. Every DPOY in the last decade had won 9+ games until Garrett broke that rule too, with an average of 10.7 wins.
If there's one super elite defense, voters may opt for best-player-best-team. Otherwise, they tend to just pick the best, most impactful defender — which is usually just the guy with all the sacks.
So what are we looking for in a Defensive Player of the Year?
We want the league's best defender, usually a pass rusher. It's probably someone entering the season age 24-27 with 15+ sacks playing for a team with 9+ wins, and we should start with the previous top-six vote getters.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
| Player | Price |
|---|---|
| Myles Garrett | 19% |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 17% |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 14% |
| Nik Bonitto | 6% |
| Abdul Carter | 5% |
| Maxx Crosby | 5% |
| Trey Hendrickson | 5% |
| Nick Bosa | 4% |
| TJ Watt | 4% |
| Danielle Hunter | 3% |
This is the top-10 via Kalshi as of 4:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 2.
Fading the Favorite
Myles Garrett, Rams (+450, DraftKings)
We love to bet favorites for this award, so the entire market really comes down to a decision on Myles Garrett.
Do we bet or fade?
Garrett set the all-time sack record last year with 23, but he was also a significant outlier for this award. He was the oldest Defensive Player of the Year winner since 2009, his team only won five games, and he turns 31 by the end of this season.
Besides, you never really know what a player will look like in a new system.
Garrett was optimized during the best years of his career in Jim Schwartz's wide-nine scheme. Now he joins a speed-based Rams defense playing more of a 3-4 outside linebacker role under Chris Shula.
The Rams blitzed at the second-lowest rate in the NFL last season, and they don't face a ton of high-sack-rate quarterbacks this year.
Age brings inevitable decline and injury risk. Garrett has five straight years with 14 or more sacks and four straight top-four DPOY finishes, but Seth Walder's sack predictor model has Garrett projected for just 10.1 sacks, way off his record pace.
Arriving in L.A. alongside Aaron Donald also splits the credit and potentially the votes.
Garrett is a tough fade but a fade nonetheless. I will gladly use this short price to invest elsewhere.
Skipping Veterans & One-Dimensional Rushers
T.J. Watt, Steelers
Watt is still a top-five edge rusher for me.
However, he is entering his age-32 season and we saw a pretty significant metrics dropoff from him last year.
For the first time in years, I have to pass.
Nick Bosa, 49ers
Bosa has one huge outlier sack season on his resume, though consistently great underlying metrics.
But he is 29, past his prime, and carries a long injury history with plenty of associated risk.
I can live with skipping this ticket.
Aaron Donald, Rams
Donald is 35 years old and hasn't played a snap in three years. He didn't even receive DPOY votes in his final two seasons before retiring.
Easy pass.
Maxx Crosby, Raiders
Nik Bonitto, Broncos
Bonitto is strictly a pass rusher with no run-stopping upside. Crosby does it all, but he reliably caps out at around eight to 10 sacks.
We need elite, across-the-board production and massive sack totals to win this award.
Jalen Carter, Eagles
Jared Verse, Browns
Dexter Lawrence, Bengals
Brian Burns, Giants
All great defenders, sure, but we're too far down the list of defenders now.
The raw numbers and production just aren't there yet to compete at the level of Myles Garrett.
Fun Sleepers I'm Not Betting (Yet)
I am not betting any of these guys to win Defensive Player of the Year. I might sprinkle them in sack leader markets, but they aren't the right names to win the actual hardware. They are worth keeping an eye on, though.
Josh Hines-Allen, Jaguars (+5500, bet365)
Hines-Allen climbed to sixth in PFF grading last season and already has a 17.5-sack campaign under his belt.
He can get sacks in bunches and that always makes him a threat.
Gregory Rousseau, Bills (+15000, DraftKings)
Rousseau is a fringe top-10 edge rusher by PFF metrics.
His career high is only eight sacks, but Jim Leonhard taking over as defensive coordinator could unleash him in entirely new ways.
Byron Young, Rams (+15000, FanDuel)
Young quietly racked up 12 sacks last season and graded out top 10 at PFF.
With Garrett and Donald drawing all the attention on the Los Angeles front, Young is going to see a ridiculous amount of one-on-one matchups.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Picks
There is a clear top tier of four edge rushers in the league right now. Garrett is too old and playing in a new scheme. Micah Parsons would be perfect, but he is missing half the year.
That leaves the two guys I am officially betting. Both are absolute bullseyes for our criteria.
Will Anderson, Texans (+750, BetRivers)
This might be the most obvious, no-brainer award pick on the board this season.
Will Anderson was the runner up last year, and plenty in the media thought he would have been the unanimous winner if Garrett hadn't broken the sack record.
Anderson actually posted the No. 1 PFF grade for edge rushers last season, finishing ahead of Garrett. Anderson plays for the top defense in the league, giving him an obvious narrative boost. He is also an elite run defender, which pads his overall grade and makes him a true do-everything superstar.
He has posted 11 and 12 sacks over the last two years. That's a touch light for what we usually want, but plenty when combined with his all-around dominance. He turns 25 soon and is entering the pure prime of his career.
Anderson is an absolute bullseye for this award.
Aidan Hutchinson, Lions (+950, Caesars)
Hutchinson racked up 14.5 sacks last year. The year before that, he was on a 25.5-sack pace in the five games he played. He has the pure statistical upside to put up a record-breaking season.
The Lions should be a .500 or better team. They also have lingering injuries in the secondary, which could force the pass rush to play more snaps for awhile.
Seth Walder has Hutchinson ranked No. 1 overall in his sack predictor model for a second straight year. He finished fourth in PFF grading last season and first the year prior. He has proven he is entirely worthy of this award.
At a combined +370 between Anderson and Hutchinson, I make them basically even odds against the rest of the field. Split your bet and ride two of the best defenders in the sport.
Anderson's Defensive Player of the Year Picks
- Will Anderson, Texans (+750, BetRivers) | 1.5u
- Aidan Hutchinson, Lions (+950, Caesars) | 1u
