Christmas NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: How Experts Are Betting Colts-Cardinals Spread On Saturday For Week 16
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, RB James Conner
After 24 hours without any major U.S. sports to bet on, bettors are gifted with a full slate of action on Christmas Day, including a pair of NFL games.
After poring over the latest NFL odds, our experts reveal their favorite bets for the holiday — and, really, it’s only one bet with consensus on the same side of the Cardinals-Colts spread.
NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Sean Koerner: The Cardinals are coming off a humiliating 30-12 loss to the Lions, while the Colts are coming off an impressive 27-17 win over the Patriots, so it’s no surprise to see 63% of the action on the Colts at time of writing (find the latest public betting data here). But I think that actually creates an excellent buy-low opportunity for the Cardinals.
The Colts are expected to be without three of their five starting offensive linemen: Quinton Nelson (COVID list), Mark Glowinski (COVID list), and Ryan Kelly (personal). It’s a devastating loss for Indianapolis and I don’t feel the market has adjusted to the news appropriately.
The most likely outcome of this game is the Cardinals winning by three points, so I locked them in at -1, but I would bet them up to -2.5.
Raheem Palmer: This is a pure numbers play after this lookahead line had the Cardinals positioned as 4-point favorites. Although their loss to the Lions does warrant an adjustment, I’m not sure it should be this large. Nonetheless, this an ideal spot to back the Cardinals in a matchup against a Colts team that’s 17th in Dropback EPA and 26th in Dropback Success Rate (49.7%) as I’m expecting a bounce-back performance from Kyler Murray and this passing offense.
The Colts are dealing with key absences on the offensive line, which may negate the advantages they have when running the football with Jonathan Taylor against a Cardinals defense that’s struggled to stop the run.
Ultimately, this game will come down to whether Carson Wentz can keep up with this Cardinals offense. Wentz comes off a game in which he completed just 5-of-12 passes for 57 yards with one touchdown and one interception. That won’t cut it here — and based on how Wentz has struggled against pressure, he could be in trouble against this Cardinals defense given the expected absences on the Colts’ offensive line.
I’ll lay the points with the Cardinals as they should bounce back in a spot where they’re undervalued by the market. I would bet this to 2.5 (check real-time NFL odds here).