Commanders vs Bears Odds, Predictions: Expert Reveals Betting Strategy

Thursday, Oct. 13

8:15 p.m. ET

Amazon Prime Video

I’m sure when Jeff Bezos bought the rights to Thursday Night Football, Commanders vs. Bears was exactly what he had in mind.

All kidding aside, I will always enjoy having football on Thursday night, no matter how bad the matchup is. Let’s break this one down.

Commanders vs. Bears Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Commanders and Bears match up statistically:

Commanders vs. Bears DVOA Breakdown

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	30	18
Pass DVOA	28	15
Rush DVOA	31	25

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	29	19
Pass DVOA	30	29
Rush DVOA	20	6

When the Commanders Have the Ball

The Commanders will be without WR Jahan Dotson, TE Logan Thomas and OT Samuel Cosmi for the second straight game. All three together being out is a huge blow for this offense.

Washington is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Titans. It had the ball, first and goal at the Tennessee 2-yard line in position for a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, only for Carson Wentz to throw an interception.

Wentz is already on the hot seat, and head coach Ron Rivera appears to be right there with him. A loss to the Bears could trigger some major changes for the 1-4 Commanders.

The only positive to note on the Commanders offense is that rookie Brian Robinson Jr. returned to action, making his NFL debut with nine carries for 22 yards. I’d expect him to be more involved in this game as Washington likely leans on the run game against a Bears defense that ranks 25th in DVOA against the run.

The ultimate NFL betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Our NFL model's biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

TRY FOR FREE

When the Bears Have the Ball

Justin Fields has faced pressure on 45.7% of his drop backs, which ranks first in the NFL among 34 qualified QBs. Much of the blame can actually be placed on him. He’s had 3.06 seconds to throw on average, which is the second longest in the league.

Fields could face more pressure than usual on Thursday night against a Commanders defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate. That means this isn’t a great matchup for the second-year QB.

Here’s where Fields ranks in the NFL entering this game:

• 31st in QB Rating
• 31st in Adjusted Net Yards per Passing Attempt
• 29th in EPA per play (out of 32) when facing pressure

I expect the Bears offense to go through David Montgomery and Fields’ running ability in this game. The Bears have run the ball at the second-highest rate on early downs in neutral situations this season, so you better believe they’ll try to establish the ground game as 1-point favorites.

The Commanders defense has been a pass funnel this season, rankings 29th in DVOA against the pass and sixth against the run. The Bears are not a team built to take advantage of that, though, running the ball at such a high rate.

Betting Picks

All signs point toward this being an offensive struggle. The Commanders are without three key players and will likely lean on the ground game to avoid giving Wentz chances to make costly mistakes, while Chicago loves to keep the ball on the ground.

Considering this should be a close game (it is close to a pick’em across the board, after all), it makes it even more likely we’re going to see a low-scoring, ugly, back-and-forth game like last week’s Colts–Broncos matchup.

For the total, though, 38 is sort of a dead zone. I’d be interested backing the under is it gets up to 39. As of Wednesday night, 65% of the action has come in on the under, so I’m not sure we’ll see the total climb to that point.

I’ll definitely be betting props for this game, though. Be sure to follow me in the Action App to get those picks before kickoff.

Lean: Under 38