Commanders vs Bears Best Bets: 3 Picks for Thursday Night Football
Getty Images. Pictured: Carson Wentz (left) and Justin Fields.
- The Bears host the Commanders tonight to kick off Week 6.
- Two of our experts are betting the total, while one has an Anytime Touchdown Scorer pick.
- Check out our staff's favorite picks for the game below.
Commanders vs. Bears Odds
|Moneyline||-115 / -105|
|Odds via FanDuel.|
Commanders -1 | Bears +1
Commanders vs. Bears Picks
Simon Hunter: “Oh look, Simon is telling me to bet another Thursday Night under.” You know you love it, don’t act like you’re not excited to.
We’re in the midst of dark times in Washington, where the head coach blamed his team’s early struggles on its quarterback earlier this week. Though the Commanders can move the ball, they have struggled to finish drives.
The same can be said for the Bears. Anytime they get in a third-and-long situation, you either need Justin Fields to scramble for a miracle first down or for him to get lucky with a long pass off his back foot.
Here are some notes from Evan Abrams’ Week 6 primer that have me liking the under even more:
The under is now 16-5 (76%) in the last 21 Thursday Night Football games.
Unders at night this season (primetime games) are 11-5. Going back even further, unders are 105-74-3 in night games since 2019.
This is a good night to skip picking a side and just bet a low total. Trust the numbers and the trends here. Thursday unders are good to us!
Get $200 in free bets with our BetMGM bonus code!
Brandon Anderson: These are two of the league's worst four offenses by DVOA. The only thing the Bears are really decent at is running the ball, and the one thing Washington's good at is stopping the run. Neither team can protect the passer, and both teams bring a lot of pressure. This smells like a classic Thursday night under.
Thursday night unders are 20-7-2 (74%) with a total of 40 or below, and that improves to 18-4-1 when the total runs from 37 to 40, hitting the under an amazing 82% of the time by 9.7 points per game. Primetime unders this season are 11-5, and Thursday night unders are 15-6 since the start of last season. Justin Fields unders are 10-5, including 5-2 at home.
Take the under and make alternate plans for Thursday night.
Sam Farley: We were treated to some incredible moments last Sunday, but there wasn't a better one than Brian Robinson Jr. making his NFL debut just six weeks after being shot in the leg.
Robinson's performance wasn't exceptional — just 22 rushing yards on nine carries, but it's worth noting that he did get three times as many carries as Antonio Gibson, who had just three. He also averaging 2.4 yards per carry compared to Gibson's 2.0. It's clear that the team sees Robinson Jr as the leader of that backfield, which makes the +225 on him to score anytime on TNF a great price.
Robinson and the Commanders didn't manage a rushing TD on Sunday but the Titans have only allowed one rushing TD to a running back all season long. Thursday's opponents, the Bears, aren't quite as good as stopping the run and have allowed four rushing TDs to running backs so far, and another one in the receiving game too.
Now it's clear that Robinson is the lead back and he's facing an inferior rushing defense to last week, you have to back him to find the endzone at +240.