Cowboys vs Panthers Prediction, Odds: Pick This Week 11 ‘Dog

Cowboys vs. Panthers odds have Dallas as a 10.5-point road favorite with a game total of 42.5 for NFL Week 11, but there are factors in the matchup that have me leaning into the unlikely side of the spread for my Cowboys vs. Panthers prediction.

The Cowboys are coming off a blowout win over QB Tommy DeVito and the Giants and move onto another struggling rookie quarterback. It has been a tough start for Bryce Young and the Panthers, but the defense is starting to come together. The Cowboys are the far superior team, but they'll have to stay focused to avoid a trap game.

Let's make a Cowboys vs. Panthers prediction and break down this NFL Week 11 matchup.

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The Cowboys have been the best team in the NFL when on their home turf this year. They are 4-0 when playing at AT&T Stadium with a ridiculous average point margin of +27.5. That is the best in the league, ahead of the Dolphins, despite Miami winning a game by 50 at home.

However, away from Dallas, this has been a different team. The Cowboys are 2-3 on the road, including that awful loss to the Cardinals. If you exclude the 40-0 blowout of the Giants in Week 1, their offense averages only 17.25 points per game in those four other road games.

That said, this offense will still be a handful for the Panthers. Carolina ranks 26th in defensive DVOA — and that is an improvement from when it was 30th/31st at various points earlier in the season.

Where the Panthers have improved the most is against the pass. Their pass defense is up to around league average at 16th in pass defense DVOA. Meanwhile, the rush numbers are still bad as they rank 31st in rush defense DVOA.

The Texans, whom NFL fans are crowning as the new darling of the league after dominant offensive performances over the last two weeks, went to Carolina the week before their breakout against the Bucs and struggled. C.J. Stroud has combined for 826 passing yards and six passing touchdowns in the last two weeks, but against Carolina, he had just 140 passing yards and no touchdowns in a losing effort.

All of that is to say: don’t lose sight of what can happen in any given week. The Cowboys dominated the first two weeks of the season against bad opponents and then went on the road to lose to the Cardinals.

The Panthers have had a tough run, but they also beat the hottest team in the league just three weeks ago. It’s important to look at every game as its own matchup and not buy into the narratives. If anything, use those narratives to your advantage to fade the public.

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The Panthers defense matches up well with the Cowboys offense.

The Cowboys offense is built similarly to the Texans offense that was shut down so effectively by Carolina. As stated earlier, Carolina has been solid against the pass, which is what Dallas wants to do. Offensively, Dallas is 11th in pass offense DVOA and 21st in rush offense DVOA. Tony Pollard has had a tough year after high expectations and Rico Dowdle looks like the more explosive back.

The Panthers’ solid secondary should be able to focus on taking away Ceedee Lamb and eliminating the passing attack. Even if the Cowboys decide to run more, it would mean much slower methodical drives — good for a double-digit underdog like the Panthers because it limits possessions.

This Panthers offense has been dreadful, better than only the Giants this season. However, they are on extra rest after playing on Thursday Night Football.

There are rumors Frank Reich’s job is on the line. After 10 days to prepare, this could be Reich’s last chance to throw everything at the wall and try to put together a good performance.

Overall, the Cowboys have been a much different team on the road vs. at home. The Panthers defense should be able to take away what the Cowboys do well offensively, at the very least slowing them down.

Also, it could be tough for the Cowboys to be motivated for this spot in Carolina after sleepwalking through the second half against the Giants last week. Dallas also draws the Commanders on a short week for Thanksgiving.

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