The Dallas Cowboys (3-3-1) and Denver Broncos (5-2) face off today in Week 8 NFL action. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo. Cowboys vs broncos will broadcast live on CBS.
The Broncos are 3.5-point favorites over the Cowboys on the spread (Broncos -3.5), with the over/under set at 51. Denver is a -170 moneyline favorite and Dallas is +145 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Cowboys vs Broncos prediction for Sunday, Oct. 26.
Cowboys vs Broncos Prediction
- Cowboys vs Broncos pick: Cowboys +3.5 (-115)
My Broncos vs Cowboys best bet is on Dallas to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Cowboys vs Broncos Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 51 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 51 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Cowboys vs Broncos NFL Week 8 Preview
The Broncos play man coverage at the highest rate in the league; Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott averages 7.9 yards per dropback versus man and 5.6 versus zone.
The Broncos also play the third-most single-high safety (61%), and the fewest two-high shell coverage (around 32%).
Prescott is killing single-high coverage with 7.4 yards per drop back, but he's at 1.4 less against a two-high shell.
For Dallas, it's the opposite.
Zone coverage has been the Cowboys' calling card this year, playing it at the second-highest rate while utilizing man coverage at the second-lowest rate.
Broncos QB Bo Nix is averaging 4.9 yards per dropback against zone compared to 6.2 versus man. Denver's offense is quite erratic against zone defense.
The Cowboys offense has been really good this year; they haven't turned the ball over in four straight games, which is the first time they’ve done that in franchise history.
According to Evan Abrams, in the last 20 years, teams to go four straight games without a turnover are 32-15 straight up (SU) and 31-15-1 against the spread (ATS) the following game, with just 16 of those 47 teams staying turnover-less.
Also, for the first time since 2018, Prescott and the Cowboys have covered the spread in three straight games when listed as an underdog.
The Cowboys are deep enough at receiver to dodge Broncos star cornerback Pat Surtain in a variety of ways. There are just a lot of different angles that I like for Dallas in this matchup.
I don't see the same consistency in the Broncos offense.
Granted, they have pretty much only played in one-score games, and their two losses were very close. They technically could be 7-0, but they've also won their last three games by a combined seven points.
Cowboys vs Broncos Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Cowboys are capable of putting up a big number here. I think they are live underdogs, and getting a hook as well.
The more I looked into this game, the more I liked the way this game shapes up for Dallas when it comes to matchups and schemes.
If you are betting on Denver in this game, you're asking Bo Nix to win by margin despite the offense looking broken for the last 2 1/2 weeks.
On the contrary, the Cowboys can trust George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb out wide, and Javonte Williams is running the ball really well.
The Cowboys offense is complicated to prepare for, and there is only so much Surtain can do.
Pick: Cowboys +3.5 (-115)
Spread
My Broncos vs Cowboys betting prediction is on Dallas to cover the spread at +3.5.
Moneyline
I will be targeting the spread instead of the moneyline in this spot.
Over/Under
I'm steering clear of the total in this contest.
