The Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1) and New York Jets (0-4) will face off in NFL Week 5. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Cowboys are 2.5-point favorites over the Jets on the spread (Cowboys -2.5), with the over/under set at 47.5 total points. Dallas is a -140 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while New York is +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Cowboys vs Jets prediction and NFL picks for Sunday, October 5.
Cowboys vs Jets Prediction
- Cowboys vs Jets pick: Jets +2.5 (-110)
My Jets vs. Cowboys best bet is on New York to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Cowboys vs Jets Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
Cowboys vs Jets Week 5 Preview
The line currently sits at Jets +2.5, and while you can wait to see if the market shifts to +3 at some point or bet an alternate line with some juice, I still like New York at the current number in this spot.
These teams have faced similar strength of schedules thus far, but the Jets have actually been better than Dallas in yards per play.
Despite sitting at 0-4 on the season, the Jets should arguably be 2-2 right now.
Do you remember their fluky loss to the Steelers in Week 1? The Jets had a net success rate of 15% in their season opener, but committed 13 penalties for 101 yards and lost the turnover battle 3-0, which wound up leading to a wild 34-32 loss.
The Jets also outgained the Dolphins 404-300 in their latest matchup on Monday Night Football; New York probably should've won that game too.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are coming off a huge, emotional moral victory after escaping with a tie against the Packers in Micah Parsons’ return to Dallas.
That was an overtime game where the Cowboys' defense logged 80-85 snaps. You usually see the impact of that the following week, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
It's a small sample size, but road favorites after an overtime game have fared terribly against the spread as of late, going 1-4 ATS in the last five instances, while missing the cover margin by an average of 17 points.
Cowboys vs Jets Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup sets up well for the Jets.
The Cowboys defense has been a joke this season. They play the lowest rate of man coverage in the league (6%), and they sit near the bottom in most statistical categories regarding pass defense.
That's going to be a problem in a matchup against Justin Fields, who has been far better against zone (6 yards per dropback) than man coverage (4 yards per dropback) this season.
The Jets should be able to establish the run and give Fields opportunities both through the air and on the ground.
The Cowboys offense also comes into this game short-handed. CeeDee Lamb is out and KaVontae Turpin's status is in doubt as well. Dak Prescott has been playing well, but the offensive line isn't healthy either.
Meanwhile, the Jets’ misfortune has masked a team that has actually looked sharper than their record suggests. Over the last 10 years, teams starting 0-4 or worse against opponents with a .500 record or below have covered the spread 67% of the time.
I project this matchup as basically a pick’em.
Pick: Jets +2.5 (-110)
Spread
My Cowboys vs Jets betting prediction is on New York to cover the spread at +2.5.
Moneyline
I prefer the Jets +2.5 instead of taking them to win outright on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total in this spot.
