The Detroit Lions (3-1) and Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) will face off in NFL Week 5. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Lions are 10.5-point favorites over the Bengals on the spread (Lions -10.5), with the over/under set at 49.5 total points. Detroit is a -550 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Cincinnati is +400 to pull off the upset.
The Bengals have scored 13 points over their last two games and have been outscored by 63 combined points in those contests. That, however, doesn't make them an automatic fade against a hot Lions team in Week 5.
Let's get into my Lions vs Bengals predictions for Sunday afternoon.
Lions vs Bengals Prediction
- Lions vs Bengals pick: Bengals +10.5 (-110)
My Bengals vs. Lions best bet is on Cincinnati to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Lions vs Bengals Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
Lions vs Bengals Week 5 Preview
For me, this Lions-Bengals game is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot.
Detroit is listed as a big favorite, but let’s look at the strength of the teams it has beaten so far. The Lions faced the Bears defense at home in a great spot — Chicago was struggling with injuries and playing plenty of backups.
Then, the Lions played against the Ravens, another defense that has been wrecked by injuries this season. Plus, the Lions lucked out with a late fumble by Derrick Henry on the way to a 38-30 victory in that game.
The Lions offense isn't exactly on fire, but they have benefited from some very fortunate situations over the past few weeks. They might not be as good as they may appear.
As for the Bengals, this feels like rock bottom.
The Bengals were embarrassed by the Vikings and Broncos in their last two games, losing the first by a score of 48-10, and the second by a score of 28-3. However, those losses came in matchups against two of the toughest defenses in the NFL.
Jake Browning hasn't looked very good; I acknowledge that. But things should only get easier for him this week facing a Lions defense that ranks 28th in pass rush win rate. Over the course of his career, Browning has posted really solid numbers against the blitz.
That doesn't bode particularly well for a Lions defense that is blitzing at the highest rate in the entire league, and will be without two of their outside corners in this matchup.
Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase may be in for a big day.
Lions vs Bengals Prediction, Betting Analysis
Personally, I think the Lions are laying way too many points in this spot.
I know, I know.
The Lions basically cover the spread every single week. They are somewhere around 50-21 against the spread (ATS) dating back to 2021, and I don't know how the Bengals are going to get stops, but I still believe they can keep up and cover the +10.5.
The trends back it up:
- Underdogs of 7+ with a three-game average scoring margin worse than -17 are 58% against the spread over a sample size of about 150 games.
- Home underdogs of +10 are 74-56-1 ATS (57%). When they're coming off a loss of 14+, they cover 60% of the time.
- Home underdogs after scoring three or fewer points in their previous game are 61-36-2 ATS over the past 20 years (63%).
- Just this decade alone, home underdogs of 7+ are 71-46-3 ATS.
The only thing that scares me is the possibility of the Bengals quitting like they did in last week's game against the Broncos. But this is the NFL — teams aren't going to quit in front of their home fans.
This line has gone way too far. The Lions were 10-point home favorites against Cleveland, and now they are 10-point road favorites over Cincinnati, a team with far more weapons on the offensive side of the ball.
Pick: Bengals +10.5 (-110)
Spread
My Bengals vs Lions betting prediction in on Cincinnati to cover the spread at +10.5.
Moneyline
While I will be betting on the Bengals to cover the steep spread, I'm not interested in the moneyline market.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from the total in this matchup.
