The Green Bay Packers host the winless Atlanta Falcons in the Week 3 edition of Thursday Night Football. Kickoff from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will stream on Prime Video.
The Packers are 4.5-point favorites over the Falcons on the spread (Packers -4.5), with an over/under of 43.5. Green Bay is a -245 favorite on the moneyline and Atlanta is a +200 underdog.
Continue below for our Falcons vs Packers picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, and three player props.
Falcons vs Packers Picks, Props
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Falcons vs Packers Odds
- Falcons vs Packers Moneyline: Falcons +200, Packers -245
- Falcons vs Packers Total: 43.5 (-104o / -118u)
- Falcons vs Packers Spread: Falcons +4.5 (-104), Packers -4.5 (-118)
Odds via FanDuel — for the latest from sportsbooks nationwide, check out VegasInsider's NFL Week 3 Odds & Action Report.
Falcons vs Packers Spread Prediction
The trends involving 0-2 teams facing 1-1 teams as underdogs in Week 3 are simply too strong to ignore.
Since 2010, winless teams — such as the Falcons — that are in desperation mode are covering at a 70.2% rate when they are an underdog in Week 3 and taking on an opponent with a 1-1 record.
In addition to this trend heavily favoring the Falcons to make this a highly competitive game, the Packers are entering this game on a short week after playing in an overtime game in New York on Sunday. This is, historically, a very poor spot for a team's chances in covering the number. Detroit was in this exact spot a week ago and failed to cover in Buffalo.
The Falcons welcome back quarterback Michael Penix Jr. tonight, which should be a huge morale boost for the entire team. However, he is not the reason I expect Atlanta to push Green Bay here.
The Falcons defense ranks fifth in the NFL with 34 pressures through two games. This presents a decided matchup advantage against a Packers offensive line struggling badly to keep defenders away from Jordan Love.
Green Bay ranks last in the NFL in pass block win (18%). The pass protection is such a crucial element of the Packers' success because they have the second highest pass rate this season and are certain to face a number of third-and-long situations. The Packers cannot run the football, ranking 31st in rushing success rate and 32nd in EPA/play on running plays.
The matchup and historical trends alike point to backing the underdog in this spot. Take Atlanta down to +4.5 at -110 or better.
Pick: Falcons +5 (-110); bet to +4.5
Falcons vs Packers Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
The Falcons managed just three points in Week 2 against one of the league’s worst defenses (Panthers), and now has a tougher matchup on paper with the Packers.
However, it’s a Packers defense without Micah Parsons, who is reportedly targeting a Week 6 return date.
Green Bay’s defense is a bottom-third unit (generously) without Parsons, whom they gave up two first-round picks and strong defensive tackle Kenny Clark to get. Expending all that capital left Green Bay’s defense fairly thin on talent and reliant on consistent pressure from Parsons to cover up holes elsewhere.
The elephant in the room is the QB situation in Atlanta, with Michael Penix Jr. making his season debut after two poor performances from Cooper Rush.
Atlanta is talented at every other offensive position, so even simply getting competent QB play should allow the offense to flourish. Given Penix’s solid sophomore season, I’m inclined to believe the Falcons will get that tonight.
Plus, the Falcons defense is terrible, so there’s almost certainly going to be points from the Packers. At least enough to cover the 42.5 total being offered up by DraftKings at -118 – it’s a bit better than most of the market, enough for me to take a shot even with slightly higher juice.
Pick: Over 42.5 (-118)
Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Over/Under
By Brit Devine
The Packers are going to have their hands full trying to block the Falcons' pass rush, and while I expect Packers TE Tucker Kraft to have a good game, I also expect him to be used to block slightly more than usual.
With Jayden Reed out, I'm expecting a reasonable amount of 2-TE sets, and while Smith might not play a ton, I would expect him to be running routes when he is out there and not blocking much.
He has run a route on 20 of his 28 passing snaps this season and can hit the over on just a single catch.
Pick: Jonnu Smith Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Drake London Receptions Prop
The reporting heading into Week 2 strongly points to a Michael Penix Jr. return in Week 3. The Atlanta passing attack could desperately use him. Cooper Rush has been miserable through 2 games.
London had an elite role in 9 games with Penix last season. He averaged 6.7 catches on 10 targets per game. London posted a 32% target per route run rate and a 30.2% target rate.
Green Bay's secondary has given up solid performances to Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, and Adonai Mitchell so far. Green Bay is favored by a touchdown at home, so Atlanta should be throwing frequently.
Pick: Drake London Over 4.5 Receptions (-120)
Note: This line has moved to 5.5 at most sportsbooks with Michael Penix Jr. confirmed as the Falcons' starting QB.
Drake London Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Drake London hasn't been a huge part of the Falcons' offense so far this season, but that's like to change tonight with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback.
London was used heavily with Penix at the helm last season, with the USC product scoring six touchdowns in nine games. Penix targeted London heavily as the wideout had 10+ targets in five of nine games and eight-plus targets in eight of nine games.
With the Packers favored, there is a decent chance of a trailing/passing game script for the Falcons in the second half.
Pick: Drake London Anytime Touchdown Scorer (32% YES at Polymarket)
