The Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers play the first game of NFL Week 3 on Thursday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field.
For this article, I'm targeting the First Touchdown and Anytime Touchdown market in Falcons vs Packers. You'll learn why I'm inclined to make a play Packers rookie tight end Mark Redman.
Continue below for my Falcons vs Packers first touchdown/anytime touchdown scorer props.
Falcons vs Packers First Touchdown Props
- Mark Redman First Touchdown (+8000; FanDuel); .05U
- Mark Redman Anytime Touchdown (+2500, FanDuel); .1U
Odds subject to change
Falcons vs Packers Touchdown Scorer Picks
Mark Redman First Touchdown (+8000) / Anytime Touchdown (+2500)
— Written by @VicksPicksHQ for PropBomb
If anyone knows who Mark Redman is, congrats.
A little background on the player: Redman is primarily a blocking specialist who the Packers acquired from the Rams via trade late in camp, and I think he's going to have a much bigger role tonight than these prices suggest.
Redman played 33% of the snaps last week despite the Packers playing from behind, and we know tight ends are generally going to see more opportunity when an offense is playing from ahead and using heavier personnel.
Green Bay is currently a 5.5-point favorite, so the projected game script is much more favorable for Redman to stay on the field than it was in the week prior.
The Jayden Reed injury is another important piece here. Reed suffered a neck injury early against the Jets and is expected to miss time, which leaves the Packers fairly depleted at WR outside of Christian Watson and Matthew Golden and gives them another reason to lean into heavier personnel packages.
The offensive line situation makes this even more interesting. Green Bay lost multiple offensive linemen against the Jets, including starting tackle Zach Bako-Bewele and guard Aaron Banks. With the line already a concern heading into the season, I expect the Packers to have an even greater need for players who can provide legitimate blocking help.
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And this is where the touchdown angle comes in.
The Packers have used 12 personnel on 27% of their red-zone plays this year and 35% dating back to 2025. If Redman is on the field because of his blocking ability in an offense that already likes using multiple tight ends around the goal line, there is a much more realistic path to touchdown opportunities than +2500 suggests.
The first-TD price is obviously more of a lottery-ticket play, but I actually think the game environment makes it more interesting.
Green Bay is favored against an Atlanta team that gets quarterback Michael Penix Jr. back, but has generally struggled to score points so far this season. I think it’s a reasonably fair assumption to say that the Packers should be the team that scores first in this game. If they are able to sustain an early drive and get into their heavier packages near the goal line, Redman should be on the field for those snaps.
+2500/+8000 for the ball to go his way? Sign me up.
I'm not expecting Redman to suddenly become a featured pass catcher. That's not the bet.
This line is pricing him to have 0 catches. The bet is that his blocking role gets him onto the field more than the market expects, and the Packers' tendency to use multiple tight ends in scoring situations and weaknesses at OL and WR creates opportunities that aren't reflected in these touchdown prices.
Ultimately, I don't think this line is correctly accounting for the number of red-zone snaps Redman is capable of seeing.
