Cowboys vs Giants NFL Odds, Prediction: Our Favorite Thanksgiving Pick
- The Cowboys are 10-point favorites over the Giants on Thanksgiving.
- Dallas has lost three straight games on Turkey Day.
- Cody Goggin breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Cowboys vs Giants Odds
This is the second matchup between the Cowboys and Giants this season, but the first in which Dak Prescott will be under center for Dallas. In their first encounter back in Week 3, it was Cooper Rush who led the Cowboys to a 23-16 victory on Monday Night Football.
Rewatching the first game led to an obvious mispricing on the market supported by data.
Cowboys vs. Giants Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Cowboys and Giants match up statistically:
Cowboys vs. Giants DVOA Breakdown
The first thing that stuck out to me was the amount of duress Daniel Jones was under. The Cowboys were coming at him all night and constantly getting in the backfield. This led to Jones running for his life and picking up plenty of yards on the ground — 79, to be exact.
And this wasn’t the only game Jones was a threat on the ground. He delivered a 107-rushing-yard performance against the Jaguars in Week 7.
Jones has a propensity to scramble from the pocket, even when not under pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, he has 37 of them on the season, which trails only Justin Fields. He is tied for the league lead with 18 scrambles when kept clean. On these runs, he has 275 yards, which is the third highest mark in the NFL.
Giants +10.5 | Cowboys -10.5
Designed quarterback runs have also been a large part of the Giants offense. This season, Jones has 157 yards on designed runs, which ranks seventh amongst quarterbacks. His 36 first downs on the ground are tied with Josh Allen for the fourth most. The threat Jones poses to opposing defenses with his legs is real and I expect the Giants to continue to utilize that aspect of his game.
In the first Dallas-New York game, seven of Jones’ nine rushes were scrambles. These made up 62 of his 79 yards. This volume came largely as a result of Dallas’ ability to generate pressure.
Jones was pressured on 27 of his 49 dropbacks and was sacked five times. Demarcus Lawrence led the way with seven pressures, which led to three sacks while facing off (mostly) against rookie Evan Neal, who is questionable for this game.
Micah Parsons had six pressures of his own, but he didn’t cash any of those in for sacks. Parsons and Lawrence are both listed as questionable, but if they do go, then I would consider looking at their sack props.
A reason I expect this success rushing Jones to carry over is Dallas’ reliance on stunts. Arjun Menon from PFF pointed out on Twitter that Dallas has the highest pressure rate, as well as the highest stunt rate over expected. Meanwhile, the Giants are the second worst at blocking stunts. Expect Dan Quinn to keep throwing these Jones’ way.
This Thursday, we get the #1 defense in terms of pressure rate and stunting over expectation facing off against the second-worst OL in terms of pass blocking vs stunts.
Everyone say a prayer for Daniel Jones right now pic.twitter.com/xjh9LkIBLV
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) November 22, 2022
There are many ways I could go with this. Saquon Barkley receiving yards overs and Cowboys sack props are both in play, but I think the best bet is the over on Jones’ rushing yardstotal, modestly set at 37.5 yards.
There is a chance the Cowboys learned from their mistakes and spy the middle of the field, but I still think Jones could clear this number. Dallas is a 9.5-point favorite, so the most likely outcome is the Giants are playing from behind and passing more, leading to more opportunities for Jones to run.
I would consider taking numbers up to 48.5, which is closer to where I believe this line should be set.
Pick: Daniel Jones Over 37.5 Rushing Yards | Bet to 48.5