Giants vs Dolphins Player Props: Pick for Tua Tagovailoa

The high-octane Miami Dolphins aim to rebound from last week's loss as they host the New York Giants at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday. Of all games on the Week 5 slate, this game has the highest likelihood of a blowout, with Vegas pinning the Dolphins as double-digit favorites.

Regarding Tagovailoa's performance this season, he has posted an average of 34.0 pass attempts per game, going under his prop number in seven out of his last ten games.

Notably, in the two games where he exceeded this figure, he faced two of the top-eight teams that restrict their opponent's rushing play percentage — the Bills (seventh) and Chargers (sixth). In these instances, the Dolphins were forced to rely more heavily on their passing attack to keep pace with higher-caliber teams.

As for this matchup, the Giants allow 29.8 pass attempts per game (fourth lowest), with 75% of the quarterbacks going under this prop. The Giants are incredibly run friendly, which is a big reason why that number is so low. Teams are running the ball at the highest rate against the Giants (49.59%), leading to New York allowing 115.8 rushing yards per game, the fourth most in the league.

The Giants have struggled early in games this year. They've been outscored 77-6 in the first half during the first four weeks of the season. This week, their challenge will be even greater as they will be without two starting offensive linemen — left tackle Andrew Thomas and center John Michael Schmitz.

Based on the Dolphins' previous games, where they had favorable game scenarios, and considering the Giants' weakness in containing the run, Miami probably won't need to rely on Tagovailoa's arm in all four quarters in this spot.

As a result, I see value in taking the under on his pass attempts, which is still playable at 33.5.