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We made it to Week 3, and if you are a regular Action Network reader, you know exactly what that means: It’s Kitchen Sink Week!
We're coming off a big Week 2 where we finished up 6.44 units (44% ROI) thanks to a Dalton Schultz escalator that started at over-3.5 and ended all the way up to 12 receptions.
Kitchen Sink Week is all about backing those dying-on-the-vine 0-2 teams taking one last gasp of air to save their season.
We've got spreads, totals, escalators, and lookaheads. Let's get into my NFL Week 3 Mega Preview, as well as a pair of lookahead bets for next week.
NFL Week 3 Props & Parlays
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Bengals vs Steelers
From the folks that brought you the Dalton Schultz escalator against the Bengals, we are running it back with Pat Freiermuth.
My numbers prefer the Steelers here, but even I keep downgrading Aaron Rodgers and this Pittsburgh offense, so I'm bypassing the side and attacking the Cincinnati linebackers once again.
This has been Freiermuth’s favorite opponent by a wide margin. The three highest-reception games of his career (8, 8, and 9) all came against Cincinnati, as well as six of his nine highest-yardage games.
His numbers were down last year because the Steelers rotated four tight ends, but Jonnu Smith and Connor Heyward are no longer on the team. Freiermuth is playing 70% of the snaps over Darnell Washington and has seen five targets in both games this year.
With the Bengals' defensive line likely putting pressure on Rodgers, expect plenty of quick check-downs to the tight end.
The bet: Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 Receptions (-138 at DraftKings)
Escalator bets: Freiermuth 70+ Receiving Yards (+600 at bet365) / Freiermuth 8+ Receptions (+1160 at DraftKings)
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Seahawks vs Commanders
How exactly is Washington going to score in this one without Jayden Daniels?
The Commanders have lost eight of their last nine games where Marcus Mariota played over 25% of the snaps, by an average of 13 points per game.
Seattle feels like a free teaser leg, but we do not often tease road favorites, and we especially don't do it against a Kitchen Sink team.
Instead, I'm looking at the running backs.
Seattle allowed the second-fewest fantasy points and fewest touchdowns to running backs last year, but also allowed the most running back receptions.
The Seahawks allowed 4+ running back catches in all but three games last year, and they've allowed five in both games this season. Mike Macdonald's defense is perfectly happy to let QBs check down to the back.
Rachaad White is an excellent pass catcher — he outsnapped Jacory Croskey-Merritt by 11 last week, running 23 routes to Croskey-Merritt's four.
If Seattle takes an early lead, White should be on the field a lot while the Commanders are in a trailing game script.
When White has played 50% of the snaps in his career, he's had 3+ catches in two-thirds of those games, with 4+ in almost half and 5+ in over a third. He's even hit 6+ nine times in his career, so let's hope he makes that 10 this weekend.
The bet: Rachaad White Over 2.5 Receptions (+130 at bet365)
Escalator bets: White 4+ Receptions (+350 at bet365) / 5+ Receptions (+750 at bet365) / 6+ Receptions (+1300 at bet365)
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Chargers vs Bills
This is a Kitchen Sink spot for the 0-2 Chargers, but I don't love the spot.
The Bills are coming off extra rest and feature the best offense in the league right now.
That said, Buffalo has allowed 30+ points in both games so far. If the Chargers manage to score, we know who it is going to be: Omarion Hampton.
Hampton has scored two of Los Angeles's four touchdowns this year — once each game — and he has found the end zone in seven of his last nine games (78%).
The Bills allowed a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns to running backs last year. In Mike McDaniel's offense, the running backs get the bulk of the touchdowns.
I'm buying the discount dip on Hampton's odds due to the overall (deserved) Chargers hate.
The bet: Omarion Hampton Anytime TD (-115 at DraftKings)
Escalator bet: Hampton 2+ TDs (+500 at DraftKings)
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Texans vs Colts
I still believe in the Texans as the best 0-2 team, but there's plenty to like about the Colts as well.
Both teams are likely missing top receivers. Nico Collins is a massive loss, as he typically crushes the Colts, with 556 yards in their last four matchups. Alec Pierce is a real loss for Indy since it leaves the Colts without anyone to stretch the field or beat Houston's man coverage.
Houston's defensive front has proven it can contain the Colts' rushing attack, limiting Jonathan Taylor to sub-3.2 yards per carry in two games last year.
The Texans have won five straight against the Colts, but notably, the last 11 Texans wins in this rivalry have all been by exactly one score (averaging a 3.8-point margin of victory).
I make this game close to a coin flip, so betting plus-money on Houston winning a close game is the play.
The bet: Texans ML & Colts +7.5 SGP (+260 at BetMGM)
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Vikings vs Buccaneers
This is my favorite Kitchen Sink Week spot on the board.
Since 2010, 0-2 teams facing a team with at least one win are 64-38-2 ATS (63%). These winless teams throw everything but the kitchen sink to save their seasons.
Favorites in this spot have won less than their pre-game win expectancy 11 straight years, and we've seen at least one favorite of 5+ points lose outright in nine consecutive seasons. Already in Week 3, we saw the 0-2 Falcons cover and win convincingly against Green Bay.
Historically, Kitchen Sink trends are better for teams favored last week (71% ATS), for teams facing an opponent that was an underdog the previous game (68%), for teams that scored 17+ both games (78%), and in games with totals below 44 (71%).
The Bucs check every box.
I had these two teams projected back-to-back in my preseason rankings on both offense and defense, and they finished back-to-back in DVOA last season, too.
The Vikings are 2-0, but they stole those wins. Kyler Murray is back for Minnesota but that could mean a real adjustment for the offense. We have no proof of concept for him in this offense yet, and he's just 42% ATS as a favorite for his career.
The Buccaneers have been terrible through two games, but Tristan Wirfs can hold up on the edge against Dallas Turner and the Vikings' blitz.
Since 2015, home underdogs of less than a field goal that win outright win by 7+ points 60% of the time.
In Baker Mayfield's 27 wins with the Bucs, 16 of them (59%) have been by at least a touchdown. If you're betting on a short home underdog to win outright, history says it's profitable to bet them winning by margin.
The bet: Buccaneers +1.5
Alt Line: Buccaneers -6.5 (+255 at FanDuel)
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Raiders vs Saints
I don't really know what is going on with the Saints early in games, but I'm going to keep fading them.
Since the start of last season, New Orleans is an abysmal 2-17 ATS in the first quarter and 0-16-3 straight up. And because the Saints are home favorites this week, they are also first-quarter favorites.
The Raiders have the No. 8 DVOA defense so far, and defensive coordinator Rob Leonard is getting great play out of his defensive line. From what we've seen, it's the Saints defense, not the Raiders', that's the weak link — especially against the run.
Klint Kubiak and Kirk Cousins are built to shine on those early scripted plays. Kubiak lost the first quarter in only four of 20 games with Seattle last year, and he hasn't lost one this year.
The Raiders were up at the half in both games this season. We are attacking the first quarter lines.
The bet: Raiders 1Q +0.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
Escalator bets: Raiders 1Q -0.5 (+190 at bet365) / Raiders 1Q -6.5 (+450 at DraftKings)
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Cardinals vs 49ers
This line was 11.5 before the season and has dropped to 8.5 just because Arizona beat a bad Chargers team.
Let's be real: the Seahawks were -4 at Arizona, which means they would've been at least -8 at home with Drew Lock. Are we really pricing a healthy 49ers team the same as the Drew Lock Seahawks?
Kyle Shanahan's 49ers have dominated the Cardinals. The 49ers' last six wins against them came by margins of 1, 16, 19, 19, 25, and 28 points.
San Francisco's offense is absolutely rolling, scoring five touchdowns on its first five drives against Miami last week at over 10 yards per play, and it beat up on a much better Rams defense in Week 1.
Arizona is missing three of its top four corners, and San Francisco is a passing team now.
I don't need to play the standard -8.5 line at -110. If the Niners win, they likely win big.
Alt Lines: 49ers -12.5 (+160 at bet365) / 49ers -18.5 (+300 at Hard Rock) / 49ers -23.5 (+600 at Hard Rock)
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Ravens vs Cowboys
I wanted to bet Ravens -3, but the line moved to -3.5.
We lost the key number, and we have injury concerns with Zay Flowers and Ronnie Stanley, not to mention the questionable footing provided by the turf in Brazil.
Instead, I'm pivoting to my favorite proxy play for a Ravens win: a Derrick Henry explosion.
When the Ravens win, Derrick Henry usually has a big game. In 21 wins with Baltimore, Henry has hit 100+ yards 14 times (67%) and scored a touchdown 14 times. He recorded both 100+ yards and a touchdown in 12 of those 21 wins (57%).
The Cowboys defense is the obvious weak link, especially against the run. They got completely gashed by the Giants' rushing attack in Week 1.
Henry already has 212 yards and four touchdowns this season, and Baltimore playing under center more has made him better than ever.
It's time to take the escalator — Tractorcito Escada Rolante en Brasil!
The bet: Derrick Henry 100+ Rushing Yards, Anytime TD, & Ravens ML (+245 at BetRivers)
Escalator bet: Henry 2+ TDs, 100+ Rushing Yards, & Ravens ML (+540 at BetRivers)
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Eagles vs Bears
Case Keenum against the Eagles … what could possibly go wrong?
But this isn't about Keenum; this is a bet on Bears head coach Ben Johnson and a bet against the Eagles.
With Caleb Williams and Tyson Bagent out, this line moved from Bears -1.5 all the way to Eagles -5. Williams is not worth a full touchdown to the spread. I actually still make Chicago a slight favorite.
The Eagles are coming off a long, exhausting game in the Tennessee heat, and their defense has been surprisingly mid, with weak safeties and a struggling front.
The Bears arguably have the better offensive line right now, while Philly's line is banged up and they're missing Dallas Goedert.
Johnson is 67% ATS as an underdog. We saw Chicago run all over Philly on Black Friday last year, and I'll gladly take the points.
The bet: Bears +5 (Fanatics)
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Week 4 Lookahead: Steelers vs Browns
Gross Thursday Night Football is back.
The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 35.9 points.
You know there's only one way you want to bet when it's Steelers and Browns on a Thursday night.
Thursday night totals of 40 or below hit the under at a 70% rate since 2010. When the total is between 37-40 on a Thursday night, the under is an absurd 23-5-1 (82%).
The total for this game is currently 38.5 at DraftKings and 37.5 everywhere else. It's only going down. Get ready for the mineshaft once alternate totals open. I'll look to play under 33.5 and 30.5.
Week 4 Lookahead Pick: Under 38.5 (DraftKings)
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Week 4 Lookahead: Cowboys vs Texans
Dallas is coming back from Brazil with no extra rest for this game, and its defense could get roasted there by Baltimore.
The Texans will either have bettors' faith restored against Indy this weekend or be playing for their season at 0-3. Give me Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter against the Cowboys' bad pass-protecting tackles.
And you already know to not trust Dak Prescott in a big game against an elite defense.
I make this spread wider than -3, even without Nico Collins, and I expect him to play.
Grab this line while it's still below the key number.
Week 4 Lookahead Pick: Texans -2.5 (FanDuel)
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