Giants vs Jaguars NFL Week 7 Picks, Prediction

Giants vs Jaguars NFL Week 7 Picks, Prediction article feature image

Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Lawrence.

  • The Giants are road underdogs in Week 7 against the Jaguars.
  • Jacksonville has lost three straight games, while New York is 5-1.
  • Kody Malstrom previews the game below and makes his betting pick below.

Giants vs. Jaguars Odds

Sunday, Oct. 23
1 p.m. ET
Giants Odds+3
Jaguars Odds-3
Moneyline+142 / -168
Odds via FanDuel.

In what was one of the more surprising witching hours of last week, both of these teams played major roles in the shocking box scores.

The Giants lucked into another win, relying on another Ravens fourth quarter collapse with two turnovers in the fourth quarter that resulted in a late Giants win.

The Jags on the other hand were on the other end of luck, thoroughly winning throughout the game until the Colts mounted a comeback to steal the win and the cover.

Did the Jags get a reality check and fell back to earth? Will the Giants one score luck ever run out? Let's find out.

Giants vs. Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Giants and Jaguars match up statistically:

Giants vs. Jaguars DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA1310
Pass DVOA1213
Rush DVOA119
Overall DVOA1130
Pass DVOA820
Rush DVOA1728

While a win is a win, the future isn't bright for the Giants should their luck run out. Sitting at 5-1 in one-score games, the Giants added another notch to their belt after a Ravens fourth quarter meltdown in a game they were absolutely dominated in.

Getting crushed in total yards and yards per play, the Giants lucked into two Ravens turnovers late that gifted the Giants glorious field position.

Daniel Jones still plays conservatively, rarely airing it out to minimal gains. With little to no threat through the air, the Giants are forced to go run heavy behind the resurgent Barkley.

Barkley found it tough to find pay dirt last weekend, running for 83 yards on 22 attempts totaling 3.8 yards per carry. Suffice to say it was the Ravens game to lose should they have avoided their meltdown.

I see no reason why the Giants will be able to find success on offense against the Jags defense, a unit that is more than poised to limit the Giants run game behind near elite Def DVOA's across the board.

Any successful sports bettor needs a short-term memory and that is exactly what I'm doing with last weekend's Jags performance. Giving up 35 to the Colts offense is as bad as it gets and is one game that I want to forget about.

The Colts rank near dead last in EPA per play, fielding one of the least efficient offenses in the league. They also have one of the worst offensive lines, a unit that has been decimated with injuries and relying on backups to protect fumble prone Matt Ryan.

How the Jags defense got scorched through I will not be able to understand but it was definitely eye opening the say the least. They go against another anemic offense in the Giants, a near one dimensional unit that relies way too much on being conservative.

Lawrence was near perfect and has vastly improved this season under Doug Pederson. He finished last weekend's outing with 165 yards and one touchdown on 20-for-22 passing attempts.

They will lean on Lawrence's production through the air once again until the Jags can run a successful ground game. While Etienne provides a value as a pass catcher, they would be better served if he could upstart the ground game as well.

Betting Picks

With the Giants being one of the luckier units in the league, they still sit at 5-1 with one of the best records in football. Sometimes you just need to tip your cap to the victors, and other times you need to fade them as the regression monster is looming.

Luck can only take you so far until efficiency kicks in and you are thoroughly outmatched. While the wins are nice, they are hardly deserved as the Giants have serious issues on both ends.

Lawrence and company are poised for a much-needed bounce back as the Giants field a poor defense, ranked well below average in both Def Pass and Rush DVOA. This serves as a get right game for the Jags ground game, one that Robinson and Etienne should exploit for success.

The Jags defense will also be pissed off from last week's meltdown, going against a much simpler offensive scheme that revolves around Barkley's production in the backfield.

Take the Jags at no higher than -3 in what will be a redemption spot for Lawrence and company with the Giants' luck due to run out.

Pick: Jags -2.5 | Bet to -3

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