Goff vs Mayfield: Who has the Edge in Battle of the Unwanteds?
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Baker Mayfield (left) and Jared Goff (right).
The Rams didn’t think twice about dealing Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford.
The Browns couldn’t wait to ditch Baker Mayfield for Deshaun Watson.
Now, a pair of former No. 1 overall picks whose teams gave up on them are set to square off with a spot in the NFC Championship Game on the line.
What really pops out, though, is how profitable each quarterback has been in situations each will face Sunday. Detroit was the league’s top team against the spread this season (12-5) while Tampa Bay was second (11-6). Meanwhile, Goff’s Lions have perennially been among the NFL’s best teams ATS at home while Mayfield’s Buccaneers are the top road team this season.
Let’s take a closer look at each quarterback’s profitability.
Goff’s success against the spread since arriving in Detroit is well documented. The Lions are the league’s most profitable team ATS since he arrived in 2021 (35-17). A bettor putting down $100 on them in that span would be up $1,482.
The Lions' record ATS is the best three-year mark since the Patriots from 2016-18. Detroit has also won 10 games ATS in each of Goff’s three seasons after having only one 10-win ATS season since 1995. Furthermore, while the Lions covered at a 67.3% clip over their last three years, they’re hitting at a 75% clip over their last 28 games (21-7).
Goff’s profitability in Detroit continues a trend that dates back to his days with the Rams. He’s 51-29-1 ATS, which is the best mark in the league over the past five seasons. Meanwhile, Goff has always been a far more profitable quarterback indoors than battling the conditions. He’s 35-17 ATS all-time indoors, including a 25-9 record in Detroit. Meanwhile, he has a losing record when playing outside (34-35-2).
Finally, Goff has thrived against winning teams with the Lions, going 11-7-1 SU and 14-5 ATS against teams above .500. That includes a 7-3 SU and ATS mark at home.
Meanwhile, bettors have made a pretty penny backing Mayfield this season as he’s resurrected his career with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has been especially profitable in situations like Sunday — Mayfield has made a living thriving as an underdog. He’s 27-21 as a ‘dog, which is in stark contrast to going 14-26-1 as a favorite. He’s also 7-1 ATS in his past eight games as a ‘dog, covering in four straight. Overall, the Buccaneers are a league-best 9-3 ATS as a ‘dog this season, which is much improved from their 0-4 mark a year ago under Tom Brady.
Meanwhile, Mayfield’s success on the road stands out ahead of Sunday’s game in the Motor City, especially considering Goff’s success at Ford Field. Tampa Bay has the best record against the spread on the road this season, going 7-1. That wasn’t always the case for Mayfield, though, as he was 18-21 ATS as a visiting quarterback before joining the Buccaneers.
Finally, Mayfield has been money in the bank in the playoffs. He’s a perfect 3-0 over his career after last week’s blowout over the Eagles. He’s one of only two quarterbacks to go at least 3-0 in the postseason since 1980, joining Jeff Hostetler (5-0).
Add it all up and it’s a fascinating showdown between quarterbacks whose teams couldn’t wait to get rid of them, and who have now transformed into indispensable leaders of their respective clubs.
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