The Indianapolis Colts (8-8) and Houston Texans (11-5) meet today in NFL Week 18. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Texans are 10-point favorites on the spread (Texans -10; -115); the game total is 37.5 (-112o / -108u). The Texans are -575 favorites on the moneyline; the Colts are +425 underdogs.
Let's get into my Colts vs Texans predictions for today's AFC South rivalry game..
Colts vs Texans Predictions, Picks
- Colts vs Texans pick: Texans -10 (-110)
My Colts vs Texans best bet is on the Texans to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Colts vs Texans Odds
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -105 | 37.5 -112o / -108u | +425 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -115 | 37.5 -112o / -108u | -575 |
Colts vs Texans Preview
The AFC South title belongs to Houston if the Texans can hold serve at home against the Colts and the Titans can spring the upset in Jacksonville. While that may seem unlikely, the Texans have a lot to play for as securing the five seed will net them the easiest path in the playoffs by getting to play the AFC North champion on Wild Card weekend.
C.J. Stroud is coming off his best performance of the season, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt against a quality Chargers defense in Houston’s win in Los Angeles. Don’t take my word for it, though, Stroud himself was quoted as saying it was his best performance of the season in terms of process and pre-snap checks.
Stroud’s statistical numbers since his return from injury reflect the rhythm he has regained, as well. Since Week 13, his first game back from injury, Stroud has the 9th-most passing yards and has only taken six sacks.
The Texans' passing attack is becoming more efficient and more explosive with the development of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel as their rookie seasons progress.
Specifically against the Colts, Houston will have the matchup advantage. The Indianapolis defense deployed a high rate of single-high safety coverage in their Week 13 game with the Texans, opting to use cover-3 and cover-1 on the back-end of their defense. Stroud averages 8.1 yards per pass attempt against these coverages in total this season. Stroud posted his second-highest passing yardage output of the year in that game in Indianapolis.
While I expect Houston’s offense to sustain drives and be efficient today, the same cannot be said for the Riley Leonard-led Colts.
In Leonard’s only significant game action, he averaged just 5.0 yards per pass attempt against the Jaguars in Week 14. Leonard is a good athlete, and I expect the coaching staff to use his legs on designed runs to attack the Houston front seven, but success will not be easy to come by against the Texans when the defense knows the threat of the pass is limited.
Jacksonville’s defensive focus in that game, with Leonard under center, was to stop Jonathan Taylor on the ground, and it did exactly that (3.5 yards per carry). The Houston defense ranks 5th in adjusted line yards per rush against and boasts the 2nd-best rush defense DVOA.
The predictability of the Colts offense in this game will lead to a number of 3rd-down situations that Leonard will have to convert. Teams have converted fewer than 35% of their 3rd-down attempts against the Texans defense, as Houston has the 4th-best defense in this critical area of defensive play.
Colts vs Texans Prediction, Spread Betting Analysis
The Indy offense averaged just 4.5 yards per play the last time we saw extended action for Riley Leonard, and I’d be surprised if they reach this number against the league’s best defense.
The Texans are getting hot at the right time, having covered the number in five of the last six games, and they will win with a margin here in their last game before entering the playoffs as an extremely dangerous wild-card team.
Pick: Texans -10
Spread
Back the Texans to cover the spread.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
No play on the total.
Colts vs Texans Betting Trends
Colts vs Texans Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | NRG Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Jan. 4 |
| Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | CBS |
