The Indianapolis Colts (5-1) and Los Angeles Chargers (4-2) meet in Week 7 on Sunday, Oct. 19. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will broadcast on CBS.
The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites over the Colts on the spread (Chargers -1.5); the game total is 48.5 points. Los Angeles is a -130 favorite to win outright on the moneyline; Indianapolis is +110 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Week 7 NFL preview and Colts vs Chargers prediction for Sunday.
Colts vs Chargers Prediction
- Colts vs Chargers pick: Chargers -1.5 (-110)
My Chargers vs. Colts best bet is on Los Angeles to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Colts vs Chargers Odds
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Colts vs Chargers NFL Week 7 Preview
Regression is likely coming to both of these teams: one positive and one negative.
The Colts have been really lucky so far this season, especially when it comes to fourth downs, fumbles, turnover margin and field goals.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are on the opposite end of the spectrum. They have a 35% red-zone touchdown percentage, which is anemic. There's only been one team in the past five years that finished with a red-zone touchdown percentage under 40%. That number should see an uptick moving forward.
The way I see it, this is the time to fade the Colts; I think they have reached the peak of their market.
The Colts have posted victories over Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa this season. These are arguably five of the worst quarterbacks in the league right now.
Most importantly, the Colts are likely going to be missing a few starting corners on Sunday.
I doubt Charvarius Ward plays. He had a concussion, and it isn't his first. He’s questionable. Plus, they might be missing Kenny Moore, their nickel back; he remains questionable and hasn't practiced in weeks due to an Achilles injury.
With the Colts boasting a 5-1 record at this point of the season, I think he will also sit this one out.
Those are two key absences. Ward has been the best man-coverage corner in the league this year, and they both rank top 10 in PFF grades.
The Colts' linebackers also aren't great in coverage, and the defensive front isn't elite when it comes to generating pressure against opposing QBs.
On the other side, the Chargers' offensive line is a mess, but they could be healthier this week. There's also a chance they get wide receiver Quentin Johnston back as well. I will trust Justin Herbert here.
Last week, the Colts suffered without Ward and Moore against a Cardinals team that had wide receiver injuries across the board. It wasn't an electric passing attack, but they still moved the ball up and down the field.
The Chargers have lost three consecutive games against the spread entering this week. In his pro career, Jim Harbaugh has never lost four straight games ATS, according to Evan Abrams. The Chargers also haven’t lost four straight ATS since 2020.
Colts vs Chargers Prediction, Betting Analysis
There are two other small edges in this game.
One is the kickers. The Chargers have the most accurate kicker in NFL history in Cameron Dicker, while the Colts have a failed ex-Charger in Michael Badgley because Spencer Shrader is hurt.
The other edge has to do with Colts QB Daniel Jones.
Jones looks a lot better this season, and everything around him does too: wide receivers, running backs, the playcalling. However, Jones' turnover-worthy play percentage is about 2.5% higher than Herbert's.
In the last two weeks, Jones has thrown to his first read 43 times, and only once to his second read. That’s something teams are going to look into, and now he's going against one of the better defensive coordinators in Jesse Minter.
Pick: Chargers -1.5 (-110)
Spread
My Chargers vs Colts betting prediction is on Los Angeles to cover the spread at -1.5.
Moneyline
I'm laying the points with the Chargers instead of targeting the moneyline market.
Over/Under
I will also be staying away from the total in this spot.
