Jaguars vs Texas Picks, Predictions & Parlay Options

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London hosts the Jaguars’ second straight home game, and this time Jacksonville welcomes a division rival that’s finally found its footing. Houston arrives at 1-4 after snapping a four-game skid against Tennessee, while the Jaguars sit at 4-1 off a narrow win over the Eagles in Tottenham last week. Here’s how I’m leaning on the spread, moneyline and total before Sunday’s 9:30 AM ET kickoff. Before we continue, don't forget to check our Polymarket review, grab the Polymarket promo code, and download the Action Network app for more NFL picks and analysis.

Now let's get into my Texans vs. Jaguars prediction and my NFL predictions for Week 6.

SPREAD

Jacksonville opened favored by a field goal, and that number has held through the week. Trading on the spread sits close to even, which fits a Texans team that looked like a different club last Sunday, C.J. Stroud still hasn’t thrown an interception all season, and that kind of ball security keeps Houston in games it has no business winning on paper.

MONEYLINE

Straight up, the gap widens in Jacksonville’s favor. The Jaguars have the better record and the better recent form, and Trevor Lawrence’s squad gets this one at a neutral site that’s felt like a home game for Jacksonville all season. Houston’s turnaround is real, but it’s still one win against one of the league’s weaker offenses.

TOTAL

At a modest number for an international window, the total points to a grind-it-out affair between two defenses that have each had their moments. Activity leans slightly toward the Under, a fair read given how much both offenses have struggled to find consistency through the first five weeks.

My Pick: Texans +3, Spread.

• Texans-Jaguars Point Spread: Texans 51¢ · Jaguars 53¢
• Texans-Jaguars Total: Over/Under 42.5
• Texans-Jaguars Moneyline: Texans 44¢ · Jaguars 43¢

NFL 2026 Week 6 Picks

Two teams moving in opposite directions share the field this week, even if the win-loss columns don’t fully capture it. A fresh set of pass-catchers gives C.J. Stroud more to work with after Houston’s deadline move, right as the offense starts clicking behind a quarterback who’s yet to turn the ball over this season.

On the other side, Liam Coen keeps finding ways to win close games, with Travis Hunter doing damage on both sides of the ball for a Jaguars defense that ranks among the AFC’s steadiest.

Houston’s turnaround last week came on the road against a Titans team with little to play for, which is a different kind of test than trading one road environment for another nearly 4,700 miles away at Wembley.

Jacksonville, by contrast, has already proven it can win on short rest in London, and its defense gets to feast on a Texans offense that’s still finding its rhythm around a new set of weapons. Trading on this matchup has stayed fairly one-sided all week, with Jacksonville holding the larger share of the moneyline activity throughout.

I’d lean toward the Jaguars winning outright rather than chasing the shorter spread number, since Houston’s turnover-free streak makes a backdoor cover more plausible than an outright upset.

Pick: Jaguars, moneyline.

• Jacksonville holds a clear edge in moneyline activity, with the market firmly behind the Jaguars to win outright.
• The spread is drawing a tighter, closer-to-even split, reflecting respect for a Texans team coming off its best performance of the season.
• Total trading leans toward the Under, with neither offense having shown much consistency through the first 5 weeks.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars is scheduled for 9:30 AM ET, live from Wembley Stadium in London, England. The game is live on NFL Network.