The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers face off in NFL Week 1 on Friday, Sept. 5. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at Arena Corinthians in São Paulo, Brazil. The NFL Brazil game will be broadcast on YouTube.
The Chiefs are 3-point favorites over the Chargers on the spread (Chiefs -3), with the game total set 46.5. Kansas City is a -170 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Los Angeles is +145 to pull off the upset.
The Chiefs begin their redemption tour on Friday in Brazil against a divisional rival in the Chargers. These two AFC West foes have consistently played each other competitively, with seven of their previous eight meetings being decided by seven points or fewer. I project a high-scoring game that makes the modest total of value.
Let's get into my Chiefs vs Chargers predictions and my NFL picks for Friday night.
Chiefs vs Chargers Prediction
- Chiefs vs Chargers pick: Over 46.5
My Chiefs vs Chargers best bet is over 46.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Chiefs vs Chargers Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 46.5 -110 / -110 | -170 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 46.5 -110 / -110 | +145 |
Chiefs vs Chargers NFL Week 1 Preview
The injury to tackle Rashawn Slater is undoubtedly a significant loss, but the Chargers offense should take another step forward in 2025.
In 2024, offensive coordinator Greg Roman approached the beginning of the season very conservatively. In Weeks 1-4, Los Angeles had a 52% run rate, but that number changed drastically as the year progressed. In Weeks 5-18, the Chargers opted to call runs on only 39% of their offensive plays.
Even with the addition of explosive rookie Omarion Hampton, it is fair to expect similar output on a per run basis that saw the Chargers finish 27th in rushing success rate in 2024.
Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman realize Justin Herbert is their best player, and putting the ball in his hands to make plays in the passing game gives the team their best chance at success.
The signing of familiar face Keenan Allen only solidifies their commitment to making their star quarterback comfortable in a system that should see Herbert attempt around the 33 pass attempts per game he averaged in the Chargers' final six games.
When it comes to the defensive scheme, teams attacked both the Chiefs and Chargers in the intermediate and deep part of the field in the passing game despite both defenses ranking top five league-wide in the use of two high safeties.
In Weeks 11-18, the Chiefs and Chargers ranked 30th and 29th, respectively, in air yards allowed. This is important because it displays how teams looked to exploit the weaknesses of each defense, and all signs point to both quarterbacks having a good chance to follow through with an aggressive game plan from the opening kick.
No quarterback in football faced quick pressure at a higher rate on standard dropbacks than Patrick Mahomes did last season. Kansas City used a first-round selection on left tackle Josh Simmons, who has received rave reviews in training camp.
Stability at left tackle is something the Chiefs dynasty has lacked, and it could be the key to unlocking the downfield passing attack everyone at the organization has vowed to resurrect from years past.
The Chargers' defensive line comes into 2025 less experienced, with questions remaining outside of 34-year-old Khalil Mack.
This is a defense that ranked 26th in sack rate over the second half of last season at just 4.9%. Their secondary may also be one of the weaker units in football.
Derwin James is the big name on the back-end, but both starting corners struggled in coverage a season ago. Out of 116 qualifying cornerbacks, Pro Football Focus graded Cam Hart as the 84th ranked corner in coverage grade, while Donte Jackson came in at 113th.
Due to the disadvantage the Chargers defense often has with their personnel, they are forced to play a zone-heavy scheme.
Even in a statistically poor season for Mahomes, he remained the sixth-most efficient passer against zone coverage in 2024. He accomplished such efficiency with a 21-year-old rookie as his top receiving threat.
With better protection and better weapons, including a fully healthy Hollywood Brown, I am projecting very good statistical output from Mahomes this year.
Chiefs vs Chargers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Kansas City ranked 15th in points per game in both 2023 and 2024, but its pace of play remained near a league high.
The Chiefs were top five in neutral pace in both of those seasons, and their pass rate over expectation has yet to fall out of the top two league-wide.
The Chargers will respond by having Herbert attempt 35+ passes in what should escalate into mini-shootout.
Confidently play the over on Friday night.
Pick: Over 46.5 (-110)
Spread
I'm not betting either side of the spread in tonight's matchup.
Moneyline
Similarly, I will also be staying away from the moneyline market in this spot.
Total
My Chargers vs. Chiefs best bet is the game total to go over 46.5.
