Rams vs 49ers Prediction: NFL Week 18 Odds & Pick

My Rams vs 49ers prediction is on the spread; the latest Rams vs 49ers odds (via bet365) have San Francisco listed as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 40 total points.

The Rams and 49ers face off in what may amount to a glorified preseason game. Each team is sitting several stars since both teams have already clinched a playoff berth, but they're doing so in different manners.

I’m joining the sharp money in backing San Francisco to cover as my preferred NFL Week 18 pick for this NFC West matchup.

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49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan announced early in the week that Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey won’t suit up in the regular-season finale. However, in the same breath, he said most of the team’s regulars will play for an undetermined period of time despite already locking up the NFC’s top seed.

The same can’t be said about the Rams, even though they can very well slip from the sixth seed to the seventh with a loss. Head coach Sean McVay announced that Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and other starters won’t suit up against the 49ers.

Some key contributors will see some action, but they appear to be special cases. For example, Puka Nacua is expected to play so he can break the NFL’s all-time rookie receiving yards record that’s stood for 63 years. He needs only 29 yards to pass it, and the expectation is he’ll get a quick hook after doing so.

As a result, even if we don't know for exactly how long, we’ll see a good amount of the 49ers’ second-ranked offense and seventh-ranked defense against Los Angeles’ B-team.

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Meanwhile, we already got a peek at what the Rams’ offense looks like without Matthew Stafford earlier this year, and it sure was an ugly sight.

Los Angeles mustered a mere three points and 187 yards of offense when the veteran quarterback missed the team’s Week 9 game against the Packers with a thumb injury. Brett Rypien completed 13-of-28 passes for 130 yards, no touchdowns and a pick and was cut shortly thereafter in favor of Carson Wentz.

Los Angeles signed Wentz three days after the disaster in Green Bay, and Sunday marks his first game since Week 17 last year with the Commanders. It was a miserable outing indicative of his disastrous stint in Washington as he completed 16-of-28 passes for 143 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions.

As for San Francisco, while Sam Darnold’s a far cry from Purdy, he’s in a much better position than Wentz. Darnold will have one of the NFL’s best set of pass-catchers at his disposal while also being protected by an offensive line allowing the sixth-fewest sacks per game (1.9). The Rams defense — that ranked 22nd in DVOA — will be a shell of itself without Donald and other starters.

Week 18 can be a crapshoot at times, but there’s enough out there leading up to kickoff that makes San Francisco an appealing play.

The public disagrees as 63% of tickets and 57% of the money’s on the Rams to cover. However, our PRO Report tracks significant sharp action on the 49ers laying four points. There’s always worry that San Francisco pulls its starters earlier than anticipated. Even if that’s the case, the 49ers’ reserves have performed admirably when pressed into action while the Rams’ second-stringers haven’t been up to snuff.

Keep an eye out for any information in the hours before kickoff in case either team changes course. If not, I’d play this at no higher than 49ers -4.5.