Bears vs Vikings Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 18 Betting Preview

Bears vs Vikings Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 18 Betting Preview article feature image

Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Nathan Peterman.

  • The Vikings are laying seven points against the Bears in Week 18.
  • Chicago could still get the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, so Nathan Peterman is starting.
  • Phillip Kall breaks down his Bears vs. Vikings pick below.

After a blowout loss in Green Bay, the Vikings are building a reputation as the most underwhelming 12-4 team in league history. Their -19 point differential is worse than several shocking teams like the Lions, Browns and Raiders. Once the playoffs start, anything can happen, but they have plenty of questions to answer if they are to make a surprise run.

The good news for Minnesota, as we examine the Bears vs. Vikings odds? A matchup against the Bears could be just the tune-up game they need. Chicago has been one of the most fun teams to watch recently despite being on a nine-game losing streak.

The problem is the games were entertaining because Justin Fields was masterful at running the ball. This week, Fields is out and Nathan Peterman will be running the show.

Let’s take a deeper look into the Bears vs. Vikings odds to see if Minnesota can enter the postseason on a high note.

Bears vs. Vikings Odds

Sunday, Jan. 8
1 p.m. ET
Bears Odds
-110o / -110u
Vikings Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Bears vs. Vikings Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bears and Vikings match up statistically:

Bears vs. Vikings DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA2032
Pass DVOA1731
Rush DVOA2830
Overall DVOA2725
Pass DVOA3026
Rush DVOA1316
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The Vikings have done a good job of masking their flaws on offense with volume. At the surface level, this team is eighth in points per game, 13th in yards per game, seventh in passing yards, and fifth in passing touchdowns.

All of that seems great right?

However, when you check their efficiency numbers, they are 13th in points per drive, 22nd in yards per drive, 17th in net yards per pass, and 25th in yards per carry. Much less impressive, especially for a team that has won 12 games.

The problem for the Vikings has been finding consistency in their offense. At its best, we have seen this offense be unstoppable. For example, ripping off 36 second-half points against the Colts.

However, at its worst, this offense has at times been completely incapable of moving the ball. We saw that last week against the Packers. For as many weapons as the Vikings have, they should never disappear like that.

Bet Minnesota vs. Chicago at FanDuel

Defensively, Minnesota has been arguably the worst in the league. They are second worst in points allowed per game and yards allowed per game. These struggles are surprising given the talent they have. Up front, Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter are both top-17 edge rushers.

At corner, Duke Shelley and Patrick Peterson are both top-14. A good pass rush and coverage unit are foundational pieces to a good defense but for some reason, it has just not come together.

Turning to the Bears, this offense ranks 24th in yards per drive and 19th in points per drive. Of course, those numbers come with Fields leading the way. Fields' major contribution came on the ground with 1,143 rushing yards.

Finding a way to replace that production will be the hardest part. David Montgomery has struggled to find consistent production averaging just 4.0 yards per carry. Khalil Herbert has been their burst running back, but his body type limits his touches.

As for the passing attack, even with Fields this passing attack ranked 31st in net yards per attempt. Moving to Peterman will only be a drop-off for this team. For his career, Peterman has averaged 3.6 net yards per pass and he has just three touchdowns to 13 interceptions. Some passing attacks are built for a backup to step in and keep things afloat. This is not one of them.

Defensively, things are worse for the Bears. They rank 30th in yards per drive and 32nd in points per drive allowed. There has been no redeeming aspect to this defense either. Against the pass, they allow 7.2 net yards per attempt, against the run 5.0 yards per carry.

Both of those marks are bottom four in the NFL. They have allowed at least 25 points in each of their last nine games. This team is simply undermanned.

Betting Picks

With the end of the year here, the biggest fear for bettors is if teams will be pulling their starters. The Vikings currently sit third in the NFC but they do have the chance to climb to the two seed. So, they do have motivation to play and win.

The Bears, on the other hand, are in line for the second pick in the draft and could potentially jump to No. 1. A loss would benefit them more than a win. Given their needs, holding a top-two pick could give them a trade piece to fix multiple holes on their roster.

Without Fields, the Bears are outmatched here. Add in the extra motivation the Vikings will have to win and the incentive for the Bears to lose and the edge in this one becomes more clear.

Minnesota’s offense may be overrated and defense one of the worst but they still have elite talent. Peterman is an immobile pocket quarterback who will be under duress from the Vikings' high-level edge rushers. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota’s offense has enough firepower that a lowly defense like the Bears should not stop them.

I’m taking the Vikings to win — and win big — to gain momentum heading into the playoffs.

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