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Eagles vs Giants Odds, Pick, Prediction: NFL Week 18

Eagles vs Giants Odds, Pick, Prediction: NFL Week 18 article feature image
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Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured: Brian Daboll.

  • The Giants are 16.5-point underdogs in Week 18 against the Eagles.
  • Jalen Hurts is set to return for Philadelphia, while Davis Webb will start for New York.
  • Anthony Dabbundo lays out his Eagles vs. Giants pick below.

The status of Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts remains unknown as of Saturday, but he is expected to play based on reports coming from Philadelphia media. The Eagles need him back to help win this game and secure the top seed in the NFC playoffs when the Giants visit south Philadelphia.

Philadelphia failed in each of the past two weeks to get the win to secure the top seed, losing to both Dallas and New Orleans. With the Cowboys winning each of the past two weeks, they could steal first place in the division with a win and a Giants upset.

New York beat Indianapolis last week to clinch a playoff spot in the first year under head coach Brian Daboll. In the moment, Daboll said the Giants would be playing everyone this week. He clarified that answer during the week, and it looks like some key players for the Giants will be out and resting as the Giants prepare for a playoff road trip.

These two teams played at the Meadowlands in early December and Philadelphia closed a 6.5-point favorite. If you swing home field and factor in some resting, this is still too big of an adjustment.

Eagles vs. Giants Odds

Sunday, Jan. 8
4:25 p.m. ET
CBS
Eagles Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-16.5
-108
42.5
-110o / -110u
-1400
Giants Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+16.5
-112
42.5
-110o / -110u
+830
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Eagles vs. Giants Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Eagles and Giants match up statistically:

Eagles vs. Giants DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 12 5
Pass DVOA 10 1
Rush DVOA 8 20
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 3 29
Pass DVOA 6 23
Rush DVOA 1 32

The signs from Eagles practice this week are that even if Hurts plays, he’s not going to be 100%. I’d imagine the Eagles’ goal in this game is to get the win without using Hurts’ legs and risking further injury to his shoulder.

The biggest difference for the Eagles offense against the Saints was that New Orleans’ defensive ends didn’t have to worry about Hurts in the run game because Gardner Minshew isn’t much of a designed runner. The offensive line also isn’t nearly as dominant in the run game without Lane Johnson.


Bet Philadelphia vs. New York at FanDuel


The Eagles’ worst offensive moments in the run game came in the second half against Arizona after offensive line injuries, the second half against Dallas in the first matchup when Johnson went out and last week against New Orleans.

To feel comfortable laying 14+ points in an NFL divisional game, you have to trust that the favorite has a desire or reason to get margin in this game. I’d expect the Eagles to go extremely conservative and vanilla in the second half with a lead and to lean on the running game.

The Giants are reportedly turning to Davis Webb at quarterback, who is entirely an unknown at the NFL level. That likely means an extremely conservative approach from the Giants on offense — plenty of running and underneath throws.

Normally you’d see a team open it up and pass more when trailing, which opens up an increased risk for turnovers against this ball hawking Philadelphia secondary. But because the Giants are just looking to get in and out, they will lean on the run game against the biggest weakness of the Eagles defense.

Philadelphia runs a passive pass defense and a run-funnel scheme, and the result is that the defense is 20th in DVOA against the run and bottom five in early down success rate allowed.

Betting Picks

When a team is in a must-win situation, they often get inflated in the market. Even though it’s not the classic “eliminated team vs. team fighting for their playoff life” spot, the principle remains true. Everyone wants to bet the Eagles with Hurts returning and the Giants seeming to not care about the game.

Even if the Giants rest Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, it’s still a divisional game and the Eagles offense shouldn’t be expected to snap back to its normal elite self in Hurts’ first game back. The loss of Johnson — who grades out as one of the best linemen in football — is significant in Philadelphia’s attempts to dominate the line of scrimmage.

This is also a prime second-half under spot if the Eagles are playing with the lead. The favorite has no desire to get margin and will want to protect its quarterback, while the underdog has no real incentive to speed up the pace of the game or throw downfield. Those are the perfect ingredients for a narrow, but never-in-doubt Eagles win and a low scoring second half.

I’d bet the Giants at +14 or better and look to play the second-half under if Philadelphia has any lead at half.

Pick: Giants +16.5 | Bet to 14 | 2H Under if Philly Leads

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