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NFL Week 13 Fantasy RB Breakdown: Lamar Miller Is the Slate’s Upside Pivot Play

Nov 30, 2018 3:31 PM EST
  • Texans RB Lamar Miller has been sneaky good this season, and has a great matchup against the Browns' defense.
  • In this piece, I'll highlight a few key situations to target this week, but check out the full piece on FantasyLabs for more.

Read the full version of this piece on FantasyLabs.

The bye weeks are over, and the 2018 NFL season is still on pace for a record-breaking campaign with an average of 24.2 points per game per team. The action continues with a 13-game main slate that kicks off on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.

In this positional breakdown, I’m looking at four running backs at the top of the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

If you want more information on the rest of this week’s running backs, subscribe to FantasyLabs, where you can access the large suite of analytical DFS tools I use to research every player.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news feed.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.


>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest NFL conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.


Model Running Backs

There are two cheap backs who stand out in the FantasyLabs Models this week.

  • Phillip Lindsay: $5,400 DraftKings; $7,000 FanDuel
  • Lamar Miller: $4,600 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel

UPDATE (12/1) – Spencer Ware: Kansas City Chiefs (-14) at Oakland Raiders, 55.5 Over/Under

UPDATE: Running back Kareem Hunt (personal conduct) has been waived by the Chiefs and placed on the Commissioner Exempt list following the release of a disturbing TMZ video on Friday. As a result, Ware will now lead the Chiefs backfield. Center Mitch Morse (concussion) will play after practicing in full this week. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins (hamstring) is out.

Raiders defensive tackle Maurice Hurst (ankle), defensive end Arden Key (knee) and cornerback Daryl Worley (shoulder) are questionable but tentatively expected to play. Cornerback Leon Hall (back) is out.

Priced at $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel, Ware is now a must-play in cash games and will be the slate’s highest-owned player. Check out the quick podcast on Hunt and Ware that I recorded on Friday afternoon with Raybon, who now has Ware as the No. 1 DraftKings back in his Model.

Phillip Lindsay: Denver Broncos (-5) at Cincinnati Bengals, 44.5 Over/Under

UPDATE (12/1): Bengals linebacker Nick Vigil (knee) will play after practicing on a limited basis this week.

The undrafted rookie is having himself a fantastic campaign. Although he opened the season as the scat back in a three-person committee with Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker, the Colorado product has played more than 50% of the offensive snaps in each of the past five games, cementing his status as the committee’s clear leader.

It might not be a coincidence that the Broncos are 3-2 since making Lindsay the lead back, whereas they were 2-4 to open the season.

Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (30).

Since Week 7, Lindsay has been a great arbitrage play on the elite, high-salaried backs. On a per-game basis, he’s been dominant:

  • 18.8 DraftKings points per game
  • +7.69 Plus/Minus
  • 80% Consistency Rating
  • 14.8 carries
  • 2.4 targets
  • Two receptions
  • 101.6 yards
  • One touchdown

Over the past five games, Lindsay hasn’t had fewer than 14 opportunities.

Lamar Miller: Houston Texans (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns, 48 O/U

UPDATE (12/1): Wide receiver Keke Coutee (hamstring) is questionable but tentatively expected to play after practicing on a limited basis all week.

For a player pacing for his fifth straight 1,200-yard campaign, Miller gets almost no respect.

Even after his 167-yard performance on Monday Night Football this past week, we’re still projecting him for a single-digit ownership rate, which makes him intriguing as an upside pivot play.

The Texans are riding an eight-game winning streak (as improbable as that might seem), and throughout his Houston tenure Miller has been at his best as a home favorite, averaging 16.7 DraftKings points per game.

Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller (26).

The Browns rank 30th with a 64.0 PFF run-defense grade and dead last with a 36.8 PFF tackling grade. They have allowed a top-six mark of 30.1 DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields.

As a significant home favorite facing a vulnerable defense, Miller is in a good spot.

Read the full version of this piece on FantasyLabs.

Positional Breakdowns & News

Be sure to read the other Week 13 positional breakdowns.

Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Credit:

Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller (26).

Follow Matthew Freedman on Twitter
@MattFtheOracle

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