The NFL is officially back, which means I'm betting on my guilty pleasures: NFL interceptions props.
I’m diving headfirst into the interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022.
Continue below for my NFL interception props for Week 1 and find out why Drake Maye and Jared Goff are prone to throw at least one INT on Sunday.
NFL Props, Interceptions Week 1
- Drake Maye to Throw an Interception (-105, via bet365)
- Jared Goff to Throw an Interception (-105, via BetMGM)
Drake Maye to Throw an Interception (-105)
This might be too much respect for Drake Maye.
I think he could be an awesome quarterback (eventually), but he had 16 turnover-worthy plays in only 10 starts last year while throwing an interception in eight of those 10 games.
The Raiders' defense was abysmal last year, but I expect it to improve in the short term under new head coach Pete Carroll. In his time with Seattle, Carroll’s defense focused more on zone coverages and letting the pass-rushers do their job to get to the quarterback.
This means Maye might have to force it into some tight windows; the Raiders were top-seven in total passes defended last season.
While I think Maye could have some scrambling upside (+340 for Anytime TD), he hasn’t shown enough in his brief time in the NFL to warrant this price, as I had expected it to be closer to -140.
Jared Goff to Throw an Interception (-105)
I’ve been fading Jared Goff in the interception market when I can, and think in Week 1, this is a solid matchup vs the Packers to run it back.
In the last two games we saw Goff on the field, he combined for five interceptions against the Vikings and Commanders.
Goff had almost everything working in his favor last season, but this year, the Lions have some questions on offense that could affect his timing. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has left for Chicago, and several key offensive linemen, including center Frank Ragnow, have departed.
Now, Goff is going outdoors to Green Bay, where his turnover-worthy play rate tends to increase, along with his accuracy taking a dip.
The Packers got even better on defense with the addition of edge-rusher Micah Parsons, and he should help Green Bay force Goff into some tough decisions.
The Pack already ranked third last season in INT Rate Per Dropback (3.1%). This could be a recipe for some interceptions because Goff’s TWP rate nearly doubles when he sees pressure from opposing defenses.
