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Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Each week of the season, I’ll give my two favorites to throw a pick.
In 2025, my record was 20-16 for +7.5U. In 2024, I was able to finish at 19-17 for +4.2U, and part of the strategy is finding mispriced INT prices, especially at plus odds.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 4.
NFL Interception Props for Week 4
- Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (+112; FanDuel)
- Sam Darnold to Throw an Interception (+116; FanDuel)
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As soon as I looked at the interception odds for each quarterback, I knew this would be my favorite bet of the week.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is obviously a marvel and can make magic happen on the football field, but he has been prone to costly turnovers over the last few seasons. He’s had double-digit interceptions in each of the last five seasons, and his turnover-worthy-play rate tends to see a jump when seeing pressure and when he isn’t blitzed.
Enter, the Raiders.
The Raiders defense has forced four interceptions through three games (one in each game) while ranking third in the NFL INT-rate-per-dropback (4.2%).
With DE Maxx Crosby, we knew the Raiders could occasionally get pressure, but this year, they’ve climbed all the way to fifth in pressure rate and rank third in total sacks. The impressive part about that is the Raiders haven’t had to use the blitz much to wreak havoc (bottom-three in blitz rate), so I think this sets up perfectly for Las Vegas to force Mahomes to throw a pick.
I had this INT prop priced closer to even odds (basically, a coinflip), so at +135, I’ll take the extra value we’re getting in this divisional matchup.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (+112; FanDuel)
It’s been a terrible opening month for the Chargers, and now they have to go to arguably the toughest place to play in the NFL in Seattle to face the Seahawks.
Despite being a complete mess, I still think the Chargers have a chance to keep this game close — and it starts on the defensive end.
If I think the Chargers can keep this game close, it’s likely because they forced the Seahawks into some turnovers, which is why I’m aiming for QB Sam Darnold to throw another interception in Week 4.
I know it was only six months ago that we saw Darnold and the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, but he still threw 14 interceptions during the regular season and had two last week against the Commanders.
The Chargers defense has been hit-or-miss, but they have forced an interception in each of the last two games, so let’s grab Darnold to throw a pick in Week 4.
Pick: Sam Darnold to Throw an Interception (+116; FanDuel)
