If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
Week 4 of the NFL season is officially underway, and our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in a total of four NFL prop bets for Sunday featuring picks for Patriots vs Bills, Cowboys vs Texans, Cardinals vs Giants and Jaguars vs Bengals.
Let's get into his NFL Week 4 player props and best bets for Sunday, October 4.
NFL Player Props Week 4
- Dalton Kincaid Under 4.5 Receptions (-122, FanDuel)
- C.J. Stroud Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-114, DraftKings)
- Isaiah Likely Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
- Parker Washington Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Dalton Kincaid Receptions
This reminds me a bit of the Dalton Schultz under we cashed last week.
I know Kincaid is a beast — he’s currently top five in my fantasy rankings — but he’s much more of a big-play threat this year than a Tyler Warren type who might catch nine balls for 50 yards.
Kincaid could absolutely go 4/90/2 here, which would be great for fantasy and still cash this under.
Despite seeing mostly downfield targets, Kincaid has an 82% catch rate, a career high and about 15% above expected, so there’s some regression coming there. He’s also historically been less efficient against man coverage.
The Patriots may play a little less man coverage with Christian Gonzalez out, but that probably opens things up more for DJ Moore and the other Bills WRs, which isn’t necessarily helping Kincaid’s target volume.
New England hasn’t faced any TEs of Kincaid’s caliber yet, but they’ve generally held the position below expectation.
I have Kincaid closer to 4.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5. Again, he can still do a TON of damage on 3-4 catches.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Under 4.5 Receptions (-122)
Download the Action Network app now for more picks and analysis!
C.J. Stroud Pass Attempts
Doing my deep dive/projection update for this game, the clearest theme is that Houston’s passing volume has been inflated by game script. The Texans been extremely pass heavy through three weeks and C.J. Stroud is averaging 40+ attempts per game, but they’re also 0-3 and have spent a ton of time playing from behind.
As 3-point home favorites, I’m expecting a much more favorable script and have Houston projected to play with the lead at a much higher rate.
There’s obviously a chance Dallas jumps out early and I lose this thing by 0.5 in some tragic fashion (again), but if these expected game scripts are even remotely right, more of these should start falling our way.
I’m also expecting Stroud to be much more efficient against this disaster Cowboys defense, especially with Nico Collins back. Joey Porter Jr. should help Dallas eventually, but if he’s active it’s hard to imagine him playing the full game or immediately knowing every assignment. And honestly, the bigger issue is the DC anyway, so I don’t think Porter suddenly fixes everything in his debut.
Long completions from Stroud to Collins are great for this under because they move the ball without piling up attempts, and playing from ahead should naturally push Houston toward the run.
The overall theme I’m seeing here is more rushing and a more efficient Texans offense, so I’m just going right to the source with Stroud’s attempts.
David Montgomery overs and Kayshon Boutte under receptions are the types of props that also correlate with how I see this game playing out.
Pick: C.J. Stroud Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-114)
Isaiah Likely Receiving Yards
Isaiah Likely has cooled off since the opener and has failed to clear number this in back-to-back games, but I think this is a pretty good buy-low spot because his underlying usage has actually been even better since Week 1.
Weather was an issue last week and could be again here, but it’s not a lock to be nearly as bad.
Jameis Winston should also have a cleaner pocket against Arizona — especially if Josh Sweat is still limited — and the veteran QB has been targeting Likely heavily when kept clean. The Cardinals have been getting torched by TEs as well.
After doing my full deep dive on this game and updating all of my player projections, this was the market that stood out the most. I have Likely closer to 44.5 yards, so not "Prop of the Year" status or anything, but definitely my favorite play from this game.
Pick: Isaiah Likely Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Parker Washington Receiving Yards
I feel like we’re still maybe 1-2 games away from Parker Washington becoming a full-on “he good, me bet over” type player where you’re not really outfoxing the books or the market anymore — everyone will just on the same page that he’s an absolute STUD.
I’m only showing a little value here with a median closer to 75.5 yards, but I’m also the guy behind the curtain building these projections, so I know where some of the inputs are probably still a bit too conservative.
I’m not blindly betting an over just because Washington is good, but I’m also not going to pretend the difference between 73.5 and 75.5 tells the entire story here. After doing the full deep dive and updating everything for this game, all roads sort of led back to Washington.
Jacksonville has breezed to a 2-1 start and played with the lead so much that Trevor Lawrence was literally passing up walk-in TDs to let his RB punch it in on the next play with 8+ minutes left.
As slight road underdogs, I’m projecting them to trail at around a 40% higher rate, which should naturally mean more passing. It could also get the Jaguars out of some of the heavy TE personnel they’ve been using, which would mean more routes for Washington (and Jakobi Meyers).
Cincinnati has also played man coverage at an above-average rate while blitzing at the lowest rate in the league — Washington's usage spikes against both looks.
On his 10 routes against man with no blitz, he has a completely ridiculous 60% target rate and 6.60 YPRR. Obviously, that isn’t remotely sustainable, but I do think it’s pointing us in the right direction.
The prop market for this game is extremely sharp, so I’m not sitting here pretending I’ve uncovered some massive hidden edge. But I think there’s still a small window to buy in on Parker before his overs, alt overs and TDs are just part of everyone’s weekly portfolio and I’m not even able to show two yards of value on him anymore.
My median is 75.5 yards, but I like his upside way more than that number suggests and not the type of market I expect his actual number to be super close.
Pick: Parker Washington Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
