NFL Live Betting Week 10: How We Live Bet Commanders-Eagles On Monday Night Football
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts.
For the second week in a row, the Eagles are playing in a primetime game. They opened Week 9 with a Thursday Night Football matchup with the Texans and are closing Week 10 against the Commanders.
Philadelphia is one of the easiest teams to live bet — in theory. Last week’s surprisingly competitive contest fooled us into a bad live bet, a mistake we won’t make again.
Here’s how we’re live betting Eagles-Commanders on Monday Night Football.
The Live Betting Scenario to Watch For on Monday Night Football
Second Half Under
Last week, we presented this bet based on the (likely) scenario that the heavily favored Eagles controlled the game. That didn’t end up being the case, with Houston keeping it close — and the under still hit.
This game profiles similarly, with the Commanders as 11-point road underdogs. Just like the Texans, the Commanders are (mildly) more efficient when running the ball. And just like last week, this game is set to play considerably slower in the second half.
With the Eagles having the league’s best pass defense by DVOA — but 27th-ranked run defense — they do an incredible job of protecting leads. If and when Washington is forced to play catch up, they’ll have a hard time moving the ball.
That makes this angle more valuable if the Eagles get off to their expected lead. However, we’ve learned our lesson about going the other way if not. Philadelphia is averaging 20 points in the first halves of games, but just eight in second halves.
Therefore, if Washington had a lead, or the first half was incredibly low scoring, this will be a pass rather than an over. That was a fairly unlikely scenario, though, with the Eagles’ explosive offense and poor run defense likely to lead to a higher scoring first half.
But here we are. The Eagles enter uncharted territory here, as they’ll be trailing in the second half of a game for the first time in 2022. As mentioned before, we’ll be holding off on any live bets if the situation doesn’t work for us. Stay tuned though, Philadelphia gets the first drive of the second half, and if they’re able to take the lead it would be a perfect spot for an under at a higher line.
It took a while, but the Eagles’ fourth-quarter touchdown pushed the total up to 54.5 (-106) at FanDuel. Given the Commanders’ ability and desire to run out the clock, that’s a solid value. Live bet made.
And remember, we’re not alone in live betting the NFL’s biggest primetime island games. At halftime of Thursday and Monday Night Football each week, my predictive analytics colleague Nick Giffen is live on “Bet What Happens Live With Dr. Nick!”
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.