NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions For Packers vs. Bears: Our Expert’s Sunday Night Football Betting Guide

NFL Odds: Bears vs. Packers

The last time these two teams met, Aaron Rodgers scored a 6-yard rushing touchdown with 4:40 remaining to ice a 24-14 win. Will Rodgers and Co. continue to own the Bears?

Bears vs. Packers Matchup

Bears Offense Gets Fields & Robinson Back

The Bears offense got some good news when it was announced that Justin Fields would make his return from a rib injury after missing Weeks 12 and 13. Fields gives the Bears offense another dimension because of his scrambling ability. Fields scrambled on 2.8% of his dropbacks over his first three starts but  only on 15.3% since. He is averaging 7.9 yards per scramble, compared to 6.9 per pass attempt, so this is a major development.

Chicago got more good news when Allen Robinson II was left off the final injury report after missing the last three games. Amid Chicago's quarterback carousel, Robinson has suffered through the worst statistical season of his career, averaging only 37.7 receiving yards per game. Still, he showed signs of life in his last game, amassing 68 yards on four catches. With Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet continuing to emerge, inserting Robinson back into the mix gives defenses another threat to account for.

Chicago's biggest offensive threat, however, is running back David Montgomery, who is averaging 19.3 touches for 90.1 yards per game. Montgomery should be able to run all over a Packers defense that is ranked 27th in DVOA against the run.

The Bears' biggest issue will be finishing drives, as the offense ranked 29th in third-down conversion rate (34.2%) and 25th in red-zone conversion rate (54.8%). This is a matchup where Chicago could have some success, though, as Green Bay's defense — despite holding up better than expected with a 14th-place ranking in DVOA — is ranked just 27th on third down (43.7%) and 31st in the red zone (71.9%).

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Packers Passing Was Stymied By Chicago

You know what you're getting with the Packers: a healthy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon on early downs with as much Davante Adams as you can handle in between. Back in Week 6, the Bears did about as good of a job as a defense can realistically hope to with Adams, limiting him to four catches on five targets and holding him out of the end zone, though he picked up 89 yards.

Still, Adams' total accounted for more than half of Green Bay's net passing yards, as Rodgers threw for 195 yards but was sacked three times for a loss of 26 yards, leaving the Packers with a net of just 169 yards through the air.

The Bears have held up better against the run than the pass this season, but they evidently picked the run as their poison in the first matchup, allowing the Packers to run for 154 yards on 31 carries. Bears defensive tackle Akiem Hicks only played 41% of the snaps in that game and missed all but two games since. He is expected to be available this week for the first time since Week 9. PFF grades Hicks as a 68th-percentile run defender, in addition to being a 69th-percentile pass rusher.

Like the Packers, the Bears rarely blitz. Rodgers will face a defense that sends extra rushers only 21.0% of the time, seventh-lowest in the NFL, according to Pro-Football-Reference Advanced Stats. Defensive coordinator Sean Desai's aim for his defense is to bend but not break, and it's been fairly successful in that regard, limiting opponents to a 55.8% red-zone TD conversion rate, 11th-best. The Packers have uncharacteristically struggled in the red zone, punching it in just 55.3% of the time, which is 24th in the NFL.

NFL Pick: Bears vs. Packers

As per usual, the public is all over the Packers, who are getting 70% of the bets as of writing. And why wouldn't they be? The Packers are an NFL-best 10-2 against the spread (ATS) and have covered in two of three games since Rodgers came off the COVID list.

Sportsbooks know the public loves the Packers, though, which is why they have inflated the line over two points above my projected spread of -10 and our PRO projection of -10.3 (check real-time NFL odds here). It's also why we have tracked five sharp moves on the Bears at the time of this writing, and why despite garnering only 30% of the tickets, the Bears account for over half of the handle on this game (51%).

Teams that cover at this rate tend to see inflated lines, which tend to render them unprofitable as the season wears on. Case in point: Since 2003, teams in the second half of the season (excluding Week 17) that had covered at least two-thirds of their games up to that point are just 257-315-16 (44.9%) ATS, according to our Action Labs data.

The Bears lost by 10 in the first matchup, but it took a late Rodgers touchdown and an egregious blown call that resulted in a Packers interception of Fields in the end zone when the Bears should have had a free play on an offsides penalty that was missed. The Packers have played 12 games this season, and only three times has the final gun sounded with them ahead by 13 or more points. The Bears have also played 12 games, and only three times have they lost by 13 or more.

Covering a huge number like this is especially tough in a game that is expected to be low scoring — which this game is — with the total sitting in the 42-44 range.

Since 2003, road dogs of at least 11 points in games with a total of 46 or below are 131-92-1 (59%) ATS.

In divisional matchups, it improves to 54-31 ATS, a 64% cover rate.

Pick: Bears +12.5 | Bet to: +11