NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why Our Expert Already Bet the Titans-Steelers Spread For Week 15

Oh hey, look! Another spot to back Mike Tomlin as an underdog.

We've been here all season. We've basically set up shop, built a nice foundation and made ourselves feel at home here. The books keep counting the Steelers out as underdogs and Pittsburgh keeps outperforming expectations and overcoming its underdog status — just like it always has with Tomlin and Big Ben.

The numbers speak for themselves. As an underdog, Tomlin's Steelers are 43-22-2 ATS all-time, covering 66% of the time. And even though it feels like Pittsburgh has disappointed all year, the Steelers are 5-3 ATS as dogs, basically right at their usual rate. The Steelers have a winning record outright in those games with a 32% return on investment, including 4-4 straight up this year as dogs with a 38% ROI.

But it gets better. From Week 5 forward, once we've "figured out" who teams are, the trend gets even stronger. The Steelers move to 35-13-1 ATS (72%) as underdogs from Week 5 on under Tomlin. And they're even more lethal at home. Tomlin as a home dog is 13-3-2 ATS all-time, covering 81% of those games and winning each of the last five outright.

I've been backing Pittsburgh in these underdog spots all season, and I've also been looking for spots to fade the Titans. Tennessee still feels like a shell of itself. Yes, it just shut out the Jaguars, but it was one of the least impressive shutouts you'll see, and against a horrible team.

The Titans' defense was good, winning the turnover battle 4-0 and helping Tennessee control the ball for 37 of the 60 minutes. But even given that huge advantage, the Titans managed just 3.8 yards per play against a bad Jaguars defense.

It was an ugly showing, and this offense has not been the same the last month. If it's possible to think less of a team after a shutout win, the Titans did just that in Week 14.

I can't believe the Steelers are home underdogs here to a Titans team that hasn't been as good as their record all season. This is a great spot to back Tomlin and Big Ben at home as an underdog fighting yet again for their season.

Pick: Steelers +2.5 | Bet to: +1.5