Raiders vs. Eagles Odds, NFL Picks, Predictions: Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr Will Decide This Week 7 Spread

Raiders vs. Eagles Odds

Las Vegas got its season back on track with an emotional road win in Denver. Can the Raiders follow it up and head into their bye on a win streak? Or will a physical Eagles team silence the Black Hole?

Philadelphia has taken a lot of sharp money yet again this week (check real-time public betting data here), as it has in almost every game this season. The case for the Eagles has been made by plenty of others here at Action Network, so here is the case for the Raiders.

Raiders vs. Eagles Matchup

Can the Eagles Offense Take Flight?

The strength of this Philadelphia offense is in the trenches. And this week, it gets a major boost.

Right tackle Lane Johnson has been confirmed to play in Las Vegas, following a three-week absence for mental health. I'm glad Johnson was able to take time to heal and get better, and it's good that the Philadelphia organization stood with him. I hope for the best for him.

From a football perspective, Johnson's return is massive. It allows the Eagles to move Jordan Mailata back to his LT spot, where he has become one of the best blindside protectors in the league. Johnson's ability to play at a high level in this game is somewhat questionable — his conditioning, as well as rehabbing his previously-injured ankle, gives me some pause. I'm not sure we'll get his best performance, but even a banged-up Johnson is a great player.

The interior of the offensive line is a bit more suspect, and it's certainly where the Raiders should try to attack this Eagles unit. Center Jason Kelce is elite, but the guard tandem is inexperienced as a result of injuries to Isaac Seumalo and Brandon Brooks.

The Eagles grade out as the fifth-best unit in PFF's pass blocking grades and 12th in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate (PBWR). They're also top 10 in both PFF's run blocking grades and Run Block Win Rate.

The offensive line setting the tone is massive for Philadelphia in this game. And it's crucial for the Eagles going up against a ferocious Raiders tandem of Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby. The Raiders are PFF's top-ranked pass-rushing team, and they rank middle of the pack in pressure rate despite the lowest blitz rate in the NFL. Johnathan Hankins should be back this week to bolster the interior as well.

It's going to be a joy to watch the Eagles tackles battle these pass rushers — Mailata and Johnson playing well is crucial for Philly.

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Jalen Hurts Is Struggling

It's great that the Eagles can keep Jalen Hurts clean. But has it mattered this year?

Even with pass protection this great, the Eagles currently average -0.05 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. The negative implies that each time Philadelphia drops back to pass, it loses win probability; Philadelphia is one of six teams with that honor. The Eagles rank among the likes of the Jaguars, Dolphins and Steelers — not good offenses by any stretch.

The Eagles have a dropback success rate of just 43%, below the Dolphins and Giants. It's grim any way you look at it.

Hurts will have a chance to succeed against a Las Vegas secondary that has a pair of significant injuries at corner. That said, the Raiders have faced injuries in the secondary all season, and rank top 10 in both dropback success rate and dropback EPA/play allowed. Las Vegas is third in preventing explosive plays, which will force Philadelphia to be efficient.

I'm willing to bet that Hurts and Philadelphia won't flip the switch on that this weekend.

The Raiders Passing Attack Has An Advantage

The Raiders offense has been extremely dynamic, thanks to the excellent play of Derek Carr, who is sixth in PFF's passing grades and leads the NFL in big-time throws. And he's doing it with help in unexpected places.

This receiving corps was a major question mark in the offseason, but Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow are growing into solid pieces in front of our eyes. Ruggs is an absolute burner, averaging 22.3 yards per catch and giving the rest of this Raiders skill group room to operate underneath. Renfrow is a slot wizard, and Darren Waller is one of the best tight ends in football.

This dynamic group of weapons is attacking an Eagles defense that plays zone at one of the highest rates in the NFL. This is likely to protect a weaker secondary that had a number of question marks entering the season. Philadelphia's pass defense has held its own against the bad passing offenses — Atlanta, Carolina and San Francisco — but when the competition stepped up, Dallas, Kansas City and Tampa Bay had their way.

I'm not going to pretend like Las Vegas' passing attack mirrors any of those three elite units. But this is a very strong aerial attack that the Raiders are bringing to the table. And the degree to which Philadelphia uses zone has to have Waller and Renfrow salivating. Soften up the defense with the short stuff, and then hit Ruggs for a bomb.

But Can Raiders Keep Carr Upright?

This is the absolute key to the game and likely what will dictate the final outcome. Las Vegas has struggled in pass protection, and injuries have exacerbated that. The big name is LT Kolton Miller, who is rock solid on the blindside. After that, it's a bit of a mess.

To make things seemingly worse for the Raiders, the Eagles bring a ferocious four-man front.

Javon Hargrave has been an absolute wrecking ball this season, and edge rushers Derek Barnett and Josh Sweat are explosive. However, as good as the front four is, the Eagles rank bottom-10 in pressure rate, and this is schematic in nature — they have the second-lowest blitz rate in the NFL behind, you guessed it, the Raiders.

If you don't need to blitz to get pressure, that's the ideal state of the world, and Philadelphia will rely on its core four to get that done.

The Raiders aren't stupid, and they've had a bad offensive line all season. Yet they're roughly middle of the pack in pressure rate allowed because they've schemed around their mediocre line, and Carr is very effective on timing throws. Carr ranks in the top 10 in passing grade for throws under 2.5 seconds, and his weapons (namely Renfrow and Waller) are great at finding soft spots in zones.

Ultimately, I expect Philadelphia's defensive line to have a good day, but I trust the Las Vegas offense and coaching staff to help the offensive line. And Carr with these weapons should be able to move the ball on the Eagles secondary.

Raiders vs. Eagles Picks

I understand the argument for the Eagles side, and I have a ton of respect for the betting market as a whole. This is a team that has advantages in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and injuries in the Raiders' secondary give Hurts a chance to succeed in ways he rarely has this season.

At the end of the day, though, Carr is a better quarterback than Hurts — and it's not really close right now. Carr is playing at an elite level while Hurts struggles to keep the offense on the field. Carr can be efficient and can beat you down the field; Hurts can't consistently do either.

In their four games against competent defenses, the Eagles have averaged 19 points per game, with a number of garbage-time scores against the Cowboys and Bucs. This Raiders defense is not elite, but it's competent enough to keep the Eagles in check.

And don't ever forget: The Autumn Wind is a Raider!

Pick: Raiders -2.5 | Bet to: -3 (-110)