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NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expert’s Guide To Betting Cardinals-Cowboys, Lions-Seahawks, Every Sunday Game

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expert’s Guide To Betting Cardinals-Cowboys, Lions-Seahawks, Every Sunday Game article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs QB Tom Brady, Bengals RB Joe Mixon

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Click on a matchup to skip to that preview
Broncos-Chargers
4:05 p.m. ET
Texans-49ers
4:05 p.m. ET
Cardinals-Cowboys
4:25 p.m. ET
Panthers-Saints
4:25 p.m. ET
Lions-Seahawks
4:25 p.m. ET


Note that all defensive pressure stats are courtesy of Pro Football Reference, all DVOA starts are via Football Outsiders, and all other stats are courtesy of PFF unless otherwise noted.


Broncos at Chargers

Broncos Odds +7
Chargers Odds -7
Over/Under 45.5
Time 4:05 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

The Broncos are unlikely to get anything going on offense with Drew Lock and a decimated receiving corps, but the Chargers are tough to trust after losing 28-13 at home to the Broncos earlier this year and dropping a game to the Texans last week.

Pick: Pass


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Keenan Allen posted a 7/85/0 line against Denver in the first meeting and is in GPP consideration. He is projected to draw a single-digit rostership on DraftKings and has a positive leverage Plus/Minus (i.e., his projected rostership rank is lower than his projected ceiling rank). Allen was held under single-digit PPR points for the first time last week against Houston, which may have had something to do with playing after being on the COVID list. Allen should dominate targets against a Broncos defense that plays man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Allen’s 2.54 yards per route run when singled up is far superior to Stephen Anderson (2.07), Josh Palmer (0.92), Mike Williams (1.66), Austin Ekeler (0.92) and Jalen Guyton (0.74).

Anderson is worthy of a dart throw, as he should get starter’s snaps at TE with Jared Cook on the COVID list and Donald Parham (concussion) on IR. Williams, Palmer and Guyton could split snaps and cancel each other out with both Williams and Guyton fresh off the COVID list. Denver’s defense has allowed just three 300-yard games and no three-TD games passing. Bradley Chubb’s addition to the COVID list may be overstated, as he was in the midst of a subpar season with nine pressures and no sacks in six games.

Austin Ekeler is tempting given that his projected rostership is in the 4-7% range, but his snap rate has gone from 70% to 46% to 34% over the past three games. With that downturn in usage, he has turned from a ceiling play to a floor play, not failing to produce at least 16.4 DraftKings points and 14.9 FanDuel points over that span, but not cracking 20 either. Ekeler doesn’t have a particularly strong matchup in the receiving game, as the Broncos rank 12th in DVOA on passes to RBs while Ekeler hasn’t been as productive against man coverage as he has versus zone.

ekeler-tyreek-props-kelce-most-popular-chiefs-chargers-thursday-night-football
Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

Justin Jackson could see 30-50% of the snaps as well, but I don’t think he’s worth playing on this large slate, as Ekeler won’t be rostered highly enough to gain leverage via Jackson.

After being held to a combined eight yards, Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams should be in for a bounce-back spot against a Chargers run defense that ranks dead last in DVOA and gave up 189 yards to a previously inept Texans running game last week. Meanwhile, Drew Lock predictably did nothing as a passer against the Raiders, throwing for just 153 yards. Courtland Sutton (illness) missed practice Friday and will likely be added to the COVID list, leaving the Broncos to start some combination of Kendall Hinton, Diontae Spencer and likely Seth Williams. Hinton was highest on the depth chart, but he’s averaging 11.7 yards per reception and a 7.4 depth of target; I doubt he would be able to produce while getting No. 1 WR attention.

Noah Fant is the only healthy option here and has a great matchup, as the Chargers rank 25th in DVOA versus TEs. Sutton would be an option if he ends up suiting up.

The Chargers DST is a better play than anyone else in the Denver pass game.

  • Cash Plays: None
  • GPP Plays: RB Melvin Gordon, RB Javonte Williams, WR Keenan Allen, WR Courtland Sutton (if active), TE Noah Fant, TE Stephen Anderson, DST Los Angeles Chargers

Texans at 49ers

Texans Odds +11.5
49ers Odds -11.5
Over/Under 44
Time 4:05 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

The 49ers are the superior team here, but are just 12-21-1 (36%) ATS as a favorite under Kyle Shanahan when not coming off a bye.

Pick: Pass


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Trey Lance received all the first-team reps at practice this week in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb). Lance wasn’t impressive in his only start, completing 15-of-29 passes for 192 yards and an interception while adding 89 yards on the ground, but his near-minimum salary still makes him the top cash game value on the board at QB.

With Lance starting, Deebo Samuel is expected to draw rostership below 5%, making him an excellent pivot option off Cooper Kupp in GPPs. The same is true for George Kittle, who is an excellent pivot off Mark Andrews. The Texans rank sixth in DVOA versus WR1s but 31st against TEs, so Kittle has the better matchup on paper. With that being said, Samuel is not only a WR, as he’s rushed 38 times for 279 yards and six TDs over the past six games. The 49ers pass catcher likely to be hurt most by Lance is Brandon Aiuk, as he will likely be the third read on most plays, at which point Lance is liable to scramble rather than stay in the pocket.

Elijah Mitchell (questionable-knee) practiced all week and is an excellent leverage play off Lance against a Texans defense that is ranked 26th in DVOA against the run. Mitchell is averaging 20.2 carries for 98.3 scrimmage yards and 0.6 TDs in nine active games. If Mitchell doesn’t suit up, Jeff Wilson Jr. becomes cash-viable. Wilson is averaging 17.8 touches over his past three starts.

Brandin Cooks has topped 100 yards in back-to-back games and faces a 49ers secondary that’s ranked 28th in DVOA versus opposing WR1s and dead-last against deep passes. Cooks is a top GPP play that would be viable as a pivot off Antonio Brown in cash games if Brown ends up sitting out against the Jets.

nfl-odds-picks-predictions-betting-texans-jets-cover-underdogs-rams-bengals-1
Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Texans WR Brandin Cooks

Davis Mills is playing well and has posted three fantasy games of 20+ points. He’s worth a dart throw stacked with Cooks against a 49ers defense that ranks 20th in DVOA against the pass.

Brevin Jordan rebounded for a 4/56/0 line last week but has a tough matchup, as the 49ers rank second in DVOA versus TEs. I’d rather roster Nico Collins if going away from Cooks, as San Francisco ranks 19th in DVOA versus WR2s and Collins figures to continue getting more opportunities as the Texans are well into full evaluation mode.

Rex Burkhead goes from facing a defense that ranked dead-last in DVOA against the run last week to one that ranks second-best this week. He is an easy fade.

  • Cash Plays: QB Trey Lance, RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (if Mitchell sits), WR Brandin Cooks
  • GPP Plays: QB Davis Mills, RB Elijah Mitchell (if active), WR Deebo Samuel, WR Nico Collins, TE George Kittle

Cardinals at Cowboys

Cardinals Odds +6
Cowboys Odds -6
Over/Under 52
Time 4:25 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

Under Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals are 17-7-2 (71%) ATS as underdogs – including 5-0 this season – but they struggle mightily against man-coverage defense like the Cowboys’ and will really miss DeAndre Hopkins here.

Pick: Pass


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Kyler Murray is worth playing in DFS simply due to his projected rostership projection, which is expected to clock in at sub-5% levels. This is a brutal matchup for Murray, as the Cowboys are ranked first in DVOA against the pass. On top of that, Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn dials up man coverage at a top-10 rate while Cardinals receivers have averaged 2.7 yards per target fewer versus man (6.5) than zone (9.2) this season.

The Cowboys are ranked first in DVOA against opposing no. 1 WRs and will likely continue that trend by sticking Trevon Diggs on Christian Kirk, who leads all Cardinals WRs with 2.1 yards per route run versus man coverage (min. 10 targets). In terms of yards per route versus man, Antoine Wesley (0.98), A.J. Green (0.78) and Rondale Moore (0.74) have been abysmal. Zach Ertz (1.17) has been marginally better, but he is the only player I’d stack with Murray, as the Cowboys are ranked 29th in DVOA versus TEs and Ertz has been the Cardinals’ most-targeted receiver (62) since being acquired.

Given the Cowboys propensity for takeaways, the Cardinals’ struggles versus man, and their overall sloppiness over the past few weeks, I would not hesitate to roster the Cowboys DST here.

James Conner (heel) failed to practice Wednesday and Thursday. His absence would make Chase Edmonds a smash play for the second week in a row. The Cowboys are ranked 19th in DVOA against the run – 18 spots worse than against the pass. Edmonds piled up 127 yards and a TD on 24 touches last week and would be cash-viable if Conner is out.

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After Dak Prescott’s 330-yard, four-TD get-right outburst against Washington that led to a fistfight between two of Washington’s best defensive players, he makes sense as a fade this week. You don’t need him in cash games, and he is expected to be the the first- or second-most highly rostered QB on the slate despite facing a Cardinals defense that has allowed just three three-TD games and one 300-yard passing day to QBs all season.

The Cardinals rank second in DVOA on passes to the right but 18th to the left and 14th to the middle, so the best option to target in the Cowboys passing game is CeeDee Lamb, who leads the team with 68 targets to the left/middle. Lamb makes more sense on DraftKings, as his rostership is expected to exceed 20% on FanDuel. Amari Cooper is expected to be one of the most highly rostered WRs on both sites; Michael Gallup does most of his work on the right side of the field; and Dalton Schultz is expected to be rostered at the fourth-highest rate at his position.

Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard are mired in a 60-40 backfield split, which makes them tough to get behind despite low projected rostership against a Cardinals defense that ranks fifth in DVOA against the run.

  • Cash Plays: RB Chase Edmonds (if Conner sits)
  • GPP Plays: QB Kyler Murray, WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Zach Ertz, DST Dallas Cowboys

Panthers at Saints

Panthers Odds +6.5
Saints Odds -6.5
Over/Under 37.5
Time 4:25 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

Taysom Hill versus Scam Darnold and Scam Newton is another one that screams under. I’d like to see the final COVID reports before making a play, but it would be under or nothing here. Follow me in the app to see what I end up doing with this one.

Pick: Pass for now


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Efficiency-wise, the Panthers defense sets up as a run funnel, ranking ninth in DVOA against the pass but 20th versus the run. As Taysom Hill is expected to be one of the most highly rostered QBs on the slate, this is a great spot to pivot to Alvin Kamara as a leverage play. Kamara is expected to garner sub-5% rostership after back-to-back duds, but one of them was against the Bucs’ stout front and the other was in a game in which the Saints were quarterbacked by fourth-stringer Ian Book.

The Panthers’ passing game is off limits as well, as Sam Darnold is expected to start and be spelled by Cam Newton, while top WR D.J. Moore will likely be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore. The running game is not viable here, either, as the Saints are the best run defense in the league by DVOA.

Given the lack of offensive prowess in this game, both DSTs are options in GPPs.

  • Cash Plays: None
  • GPP Plays: RB Alvin Kamara, DST New Orleans Saints, DST Carolina Panthers

Lions at Seahawks

Lions Odds +7.5
Seahawks Odds -7.5
Over/Under 41.5
Time 4:25 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

I wouldn’t put money on Tim Doyle to cover in back-to-back games, but you can’t trust this Seahawks team that is out of playoff contention, either.

Pick: Pass


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught at least eight passes in four straight games. Even if Tim Boyle starts at QB, St. Brown is cash-viable against a Seahawks defense that’s ranked 20th in DVOA against the pass. With Kalif Raymond (Reserve/COVID-19) out, Josh Reynolds will continue to be the team’s only other WR worthy of mention, but Reynolds doesn’t have the same chemistry with Boyle as he had with his former teammate Goff, catching only 2-of-10 passes from the former.

The Seahawks are ninth in DVOA against the run but dead last on passes to RBs, so D’Andre Swift is worth rostering on DraftKings, where his salary is $6,000 — $1,700 cheaper than on FanDuel.

Rashaad Penny has topped 130 rushing yards in two of the past three games and has a good shot at doing so again against a Lions defense that is ranked 28th in DVOA against the run. Penny is expected to be rostered in just 5-7% of entries.

Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are each expected to draw single-digit rostership and are in play in GPPs against a Lions defense that is ranked 28th in DVOA against the pass. Gerald Everett is also worth a dart throw, as the Lions are 29th in DVOA versus TEs. Everett has cracked 60 yards in two straight games.

  • Cash Plays: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • GPP Plays: QB Russell Wilson, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny, WR D.K. Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett, TE Gerald Everett

Editor’s note: The following previews were for games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.


NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Click on a matchup to skip to that preview
Raiders-Colts
1 p.m. ET
Giants-Bears
1 p.m. ET
Bucs-Jets
1 p.m. ET
Falcons-Bills
1 p.m. ET
Eagles-WFT
1 p.m. ET
Chiefs-Bengals
1 p.m. ET
Jaguars-Patriots
1 p.m. ET
Dolphins-Titans
1 p.m. ET
Rams-Ravens
1 p.m. ET

Raiders at Colts Odds

Raiders Odds +7
Colts Odds -7
Over/Under 44.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

Editor’s note: The following was written before Carson Wentz was activated off the COVID list.

The Colts are 10-5 against the spread (ATS) while the Raiders are 6-9, but there’s no telling how the unvaccinated Carson Wentz will look after a stint on the COVID list. If Sam Ehlinger suits up, this could be an under spot, as the Raiders are likely to do their part for the under, having failed to top 17 points in seven of their past eight games.

Follow me in the Action App to be notified if I end up making a play on this game.

Pick: Pass for now


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

The Raiders rank 25th defensive passing DVOA and play zone at the highest rate in the NFL, which sets up well for Michael Pittman Jr., who leads the Colts in targets (57), catches (43) and yards (561) versus zone coverages. Pittman already projects for single-digit ownership, which could dip even lower if Sam Ehlinger starts in place of Carson Wentz.

Ehlinger would be a GPP option if he plays, as he averaged 9.3 yards per attempt in the preseason and brings scrambling ability to the table.

Zach Pascal was activated off the COVID list, which kills whatever small value T.Y. Hilton may have had.

The Raiders are 27th in DVOA versus TEs, but the three-way committee of Jack Doyle, Mo-Alie Cox and Kylen Granson renders all of them useless.

After somewhat of a disappointing Week 16 from a fantasy perspective in which he gained “only” 108 yards with no catches or scores, Jonathan Taylor is projected to be just the sixth- or seventh-most highly rostered RB on this slate. The Raiders rank 10th in DVOA against the run, but Taylor’s modest rostership creates more upside than his tough-on-paper matchup creates downside.

nfl-odds-picks-predictions-bet-colts-cover-spread-bills-spreads-week-11-2021
Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images. Pictured: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor

The Raiders have topped 17 points just once in eight games since their bye and are implied to score 18.75 points in this game, so it’s a spot to stack the Colts DST with Taylor and fade Derek Carr, who has at least three interceptions plus sacks in six of his past seven starts.

Zay Jones has caught five or more passes in four of his past five games and is viable in cash games given his salary. Hunter Renfrow is still a season-long fantasy WR2, but he’s projected to be among the most highly-rostered WRs on the slate, so there’s no point in using on a slate with 14 games. Foster Moreau is a cheaper alternative who has been on the field just as much as Renfrow over the past three games. Moreau also has a cake matchup on paper, as the Colts are allowing the most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game in the league to TEs (69.9).

The Colts play zone coverage at the 10th-highest rate, which means DeSean Jackson and Bryan Edwards are likely in for quiet afternoons. Jackson and Edwards are averaging 2.1 and 1.7 fewer yards per route run versus zone than man, respectively.

The Colts are ranked third in DVOA against the run, making this a good week to fade Josh Jacobs, who is expected to be one of the most highly rostered RBs on the slate after his 27-carry, 129-yard outburst last week against the Broncos.

  • Cash Plays: WR Zay Jones, DST Indianapolis Colts
  • GPP Plays: QB Sam Ehlinger (if Wentz sits), RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman Jr., TE Foster Moreau

Giants at Bears Odds

Giants Odds +6.5
Bears Odds -6.5
Over/Under 36
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

Andy Dalton versus Jake Fromm screams “under,” but the market has wised up and listed this game at 37, and the Giants have been going over even higher totals lately.

Pick: Pass


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Lame-duck Matt Nagy’s quackery looks to be nearing its end, but no one can say he isn’t feeding his best player on the way out: David Montgomery has seen 20+ touches in four of the past five games, averaging 23.2 over that span. Montgomery is a locked-in cash play against a 27th-ranked Giants run defense that probably couldn’t even stop Saquon Barkley.

Justin Fields (questionable-ankle) got in limited practices all week, but Andy Dalton will get the start. The Giants run the seventh-most zone coverage while the only Bears pass catcher to average more than 1.5 yards per route versus zone this year is Jakeem Grant, who is expected to have a bit role. Allen Robinson lost 10 pounds due to COVID, and Darnell Mooney has a tough matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 11th in DVOA versus opposing No. 1 WRs. Cole Kmet is still scoreless on 10 red-zone targets and has been out-targeted inside the 10 by Jimmy Graham.

The Bears DST is a top cash play against the Giants’ combination of Jake Fromm and Mike Glennon at QB. The Giants have’t topped 200 passing yards since Daniel Jones went down. Fromm and Glennon make Jones look like Joe Montana. The state of the passing game renders Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, Kadarius Toney and Evan Engram useless.

Speaking of useless, Saquon Barkley has topped 100 scrimmage yards once all season and found the end zone in only three of the 11 for which he’s been active. He’s tough to get behind, even against a Bears defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against the run.

  • Cash Plays: RB David Montgomery, DST Chicago Bears
  • GPP Plays: None

Buccaneers at Jets Odds

Buccaneers Odds -13.5
Jets Odds +13.5
Over/Under 45.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

Even with the Bucs at less than full strength, this is a massive mismatch: Their +8.7 margin of victory is third-best, while the Jets’ -11.5 is second-worst. Adjusted for strength of schedule, the Bucs improve to +9.3 while the Jets improve to -11.1, which is still a 20.4-point difference. It’s also worth noting that the Bucs’ margin of victory improves to +11.4 if you remove the two games against their arch-nemesis, the Saints, a team that has had their number ever since Tom Brady arrived in Tampa Bay.

This is a letdown spot for the Jets, who should have lost to the Jaguars but somehow escaped with their fourth win of the season. Unfortunately for the Jets, the Bucs steamroll these kinds of teams.

Here are the Bucs’ results against teams that currently have fewer than six wins:

  • Week 7 vs. Bears: Won 38-3
  • Week 11 vs. Giants: Won 30-10
  • Week 16 at Panthers: Won 32-6

The Bucs have also beat the 7-8 Falcons – a team of similar quality to the Jets that ranks 31st in overall DVOA – twice by a combined score of 78-42.

Pick: Bucs -13 (to -14); Tease Bucs -13 to -7 (to -14 to -8)


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

In Ronald Jones II’s first game back in a featured role due to an injury to Leonard Fournette, Jones racked up 82 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 22 touches. Jones is a no-brainer cash play against a Jets defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the run and 27th on targets to RBs. Ke’Shawn Vaughn broke a 58-yards TD run against Carolina last week, but his other six carries went for 12 yards. I don’t view him as a realistic option on the full main slate, but he is an intriguing leverage play on smaller slates where Jones’ rostership will be even higher.

Antonio Brown (questionable-ankle) has posted five catches, 63 yards and/or a TD in five of six games this season. So long as he suits up, he’s a locked-in cash play on DraftKings at $6,100. I would fade him on FanDuel, where his salary has ballooned to $8,500. Rob Gronkowski is in a smash bounce-back spot, as the Jets rank dead-last in DVOA against TEs, allowing the third-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to the position (65.8). It’s unlikely that the team would risk the health of Mike Evans (questionable-hamstring) if he wasn’t 100%, so I would be willing to fire him up if he goes, as he will likely be under-rostered.

This is another spot to roster Tom Brady, as the matchup couldn’t be easier and his rostership has a chance to land at sub-5% levels.

super bowl odds-2022
Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady

The Jets got bad news when it was revealed that Elijah Moore (IR-quad) won’t be making his return this week. Without Moore, Braxton Berrios becomes the Jets’ de-facto WR1. He led all Jets WRs in routes run this past game and has five catches and/or a TD in each of his past three games. He’s viable as a cash-game punt play against a Bucs cornerback unit that is in disarray, as Richard Sherman (Achilles) is doubtful while Jamel Dean (Reserve/COVID-19) and Sean Murphy Bunting (Reserve/COVID-19) haven’t practiced all week and are not locks to be activated by gametime.

The rest of the Jets passing game a black hole consisting of Keelan Cole, Denzel Mims, Jeff Smith and whichever human being with a pulse they end up using at TE. The Bucs are fourth in pass-defense DVOA, so I wouldn’t touch Zach Wilson or anyone outside of Berrios.

The same is true at RB, as Michael Carter will face a unit that ranks 11th in DVOA against the run and has been one of the league’s best run defenses for years now. With that said, the Bucs DST is still not in play for me due to price; there are simply too many mid-range options to justify spending up for a Bucs defense that isn’t fully healthy.

  • Cash Plays: RB Ronald Jones II, WR Antonio Brown, WR Braxton Berrios
  • GPP Plays: QB Tom Brady, WR Mike Evans (if active), TE Rob Gronkowski

Falcons at Bills Odds

Falcons Odds +14
Bills Odds -14
Over/Under 44.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

The Falcons follow a predictable script.

Here is their performance versus teams currently above .500:

  • Week 1 vs. Eagles: Lost 32-6
  • Week 2 vs. Bucs: Lost 48-25
  • Week 7 at Dolphins: Won 30-28
  • Week 10 at Cowboys: Lost 43-3
  • Week 11 vs. Patriots: Lost 25-0
  • Week 13 vs. Bucs: Lost 30-17
  • Week 15 at 49ers: Lost 31-13

In those seven games, the Falcons were outscored by an average of 20.5 points and lost by fewer than 18 just twice while going 1-6 straight-up and ATS.

The Bills (+10.6) have a 19.2-point edge over the Falcons (-8.6) in schedule-adjusted margin of victory and are at home. This is a rare time to back a huge favorite.

Pick: Bills -14.5 (to -15.5)


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Devin Singletary has taken control of the Bills’ backfield, playing more than 80% of the cumulative offensive snaps over the past three games and averaging 17.0 carries per game over the past two. (The Bills correctly decided not the run the ball against the Bucs three weeks ago.) With his team installed as a two-touchdown home favorite, Singletary is viable in cash games against a Falcons defense that ranks 25th in DVOA against the run. In each of the past three games, one of Zack Moss or Matt Breida has been healthy-scratched.

Josh Allen is far and away the highest-ceiling QB play of the week, as the Falcons rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and 31st overall.

Unsurprisingly, Atlanta has had trouble slowing down opposing No. 1 WRs, ranking 29th in DVOA, making this a pristine spot to pay up for Stefon Diggs, who is expected to generate a rostership percentage in the single digits.

The Falcons play man coverage at an above-average rate, making Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox must-roster players for those building Allen stacks. Davis (6) and Knox (5) have combined for an absurd 11 TDs versus man coverage this year despite barely having 100 total targets between them.

This profiles as a game in which the Bills may not need Cole Beasley as much, as he’s more of a zone-beater and extension of the run game versus stout run defenses. Emmanuel Sanders (questionable-knee) is fading into oblivion in his age-34 season, failing to top 28 yards since Week 10 and failing to score since Week 6.

Matt Ryan hasn’t thrown for 300 yards or multiple scores in any of the past seven games, so this is a spot to fade him and roster the Bills DST. I do like Russell Gage as a bounce-back candidate, however, the Bills play man coverage at a top-10 rate and Gage is averaging 2.47 yards per route run against man compared to 1.67 versus zone. The Bills will also continue to be without top cornerback Tre’Davious White (IR-knee). Kyle Pitts has also had success against man coverage (2.37 YPRR), but I’m not as optimistic about him against a Bills defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to TEs (39.4). The Bills have annually had one of the best TE defenses in the league under Sean McDermott.

In a season in which Cordarrelle Patterson has handled a career-high 189 touches, he finally seems to have hit a wall. Here are his yards after contact per attempt averages over the past four games:

  • Week 13: 4.83
  • Week 14: 2.56
  • Week 15: 1.91
  • Week 16: 1.86

The Bills have dropped to a middling 14th in DVOA against the run and are 15th against RBs in the passing game, but Patterson is too expensive to play on such a large slate in DFS. He has 20 touches for 36 yards and a TD over his past two games and hasn’t posted 100 scrimmage yards since Week 12.

There are also higher-upside options than Mike Davis, who is averaging just 4.1 yards per touch this season.

  • Cash Plays: RB Devin Singletary
  • GPP Plays: QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Russell Gage, WR Gabriel Davis, TE Dawson Knox, DST Buffalo Bills

Eagles at Football Team Odds

Eagles Odds -4.5
Football Team Odds +4.5
Over/Under 44.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

After getting more players back off the COVID list, the Football Team were in a good bounce-back as a divisional home dog against the Eagles, but the absence of Antonio Gibson (COVID-19) may be too much to overcome — and the team may have more COVID issues to come.

Pick: Pass


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Washington’s pass defense ranks 27th in plays zone at the fourth-highest rate, which sets up well for stacking Jalen Hurts with Dallas Goedert and/or Devonta Smith, who lead the Eagles in yards per route run versus zone at 2.50 and 1.94, respectively. Smith is the better play, as his rostership is expected to be 5% or below. Goedert is expected to be one of the most popular TEs, but similarly to Zach Ertz, Goedert is hard to fade with limited options at the position.

Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins are not realistic options. Reagor has scored twice all season while Watkins is yet to find the end zone.

Jordan Howard (questionable-stringer) is averaging 12.8 touches for 66.5 scrimmage yards and 0.5 TDs per game in six games this season, and three of those games came with Miles Sanders (out-hand) also active. However, Howard was limited in practice this week and will likely form a committee with Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. Washington has been slightly above-average against the run, ranking 15th in DVOA.

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Eagles RB Jordan Howard

Washington’s offense is a mess. Antonio Gibson was placed on the COVID-19 list while Taylor Heinicke got benched last week and may not make it through this game. Terry McLaurin hasn’t topped 51 yards or scored since Week 11 and will have to deal with Darius Slay. Washington uses platoons that are difficult to decipher at RB2, WR2/3 and TE, so it’s tough to get behind anyone here.

Even with Gibson out, the backfield doesn’t offer much clarity, as Jaret Patterson and Jonathan Williams will likely form a two-way committee. This is a spot to fade Washington and target the Eagles DST.

  • Cash Plays: None
  • GPP Plays: QB Jalen Hurts, WR Devonta Smith, TE Dallas Goedert, DST Philadelphia Eagles

Chiefs at Bengals Odds

Chiefs Odds -4.5
Bengals Odds +4.5
Over/Under 51
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

Including the postseason, the Chiefs are 7-14 ATS as favorites since the midpoint of last season, and I don’t think the Bengals will be an easy team for them to beat, much less cover against. The Bengals are the first above-average defense the Chiefs have faced since the Cowboys in Week 11, a game in which the Chiefs scored only 19 points.

Historically, it has been profitable to fade teams that have scored 30+ in three straight games, like the Chiefs have done (per our Action Labs data):

The Bengals also match up well on offense here, as they lead the league in yards per target versus man coverage (11.4) while the Chiefs defense plays man at the fifth-highest rate.

Pick: Bengals +4.5 (to +3.5)


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

The Chiefs play man coverage at the fifth-highest rate, so this is a great spot to target Joe Burrow the entire Bengals passing game. In terms of yards per route run versus man, each of Ja’Marr Chase (3.23), Tee Higgins (2.07), Tyler Boyd (1.91) and C.J. Uzomah (1.75) have posted figures ranging from elite to above-average. The Chiefs’ pass defense has improved to 13th in DVOA, but this is a tough matchup for them.

Joe Mixon is in a good spot as well, as the Chiefs are ranked 21st in DVOA against the run and 31st in DVOA on passes to RBs. Mixon is expected to generate sub-5% rostership despite piling up 1,432 scrimmage yards and 16 TDs in 15 games.

Tyreek Hill’s rostership is expected to be cut in half this week after he was rostered more than 20% last week in his return from COVID in which he produced a dud. Patrick Mahomes is also expected to draw sub-5% rostership, while Travis Kelce is expected to be in the single digits as well. All are in a smash spot versus a Bengals defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA versus the pass compared to seventh against the run. As the Bengals are top-seven against the run I don’t think we need to entertain Darrel Williams at projected high rostership here.

  • Cash Plays: None
  • GPP Plays: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins, WR Tyler Boyd, TE Travis Kelce, TE C.J. Uzomah

Jaguars at Patriots Odds

Jaguars Odds +16
Patriots Odds -16
Over/Under 41.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

Bill Belichick still hasn’t lost to a rookie quarterback in Foxboro, and Trevor Lawrence has done nothing in his first pro season to suggest that will change. The No. 1 overall pick has led his offense to an NFL-worst 14.5 points per game. The Patriots, meanwhile, have allowed just 17.3 points per game, tied for best in the NFL.

The number is huge, but I want to invest in the Patriots in some way, so I’m teasing them down.

Pick: Tease Patriots -16.5 to -10.5 (to -17 to -11)


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Bill Belichick’s defense feasts on rookie quarterbacks and he has never lost to one in Foxboro, so this is a spot to fade the entire Jaguars passing game and roster the Patriots DST. The only player on the Jags worth rostering is Dare Ogunbowale, who will start in place of the injured James Robinson (IR-Achilles). Ogunbowale turned 19 touches into 74 yards and a TD last week and could be on the receiving end of an excessive amount of dump-off passes in garbage time.

The Jaguars are 32nd in DVOA versus opposing WR1s, so this is a spot to target Jakobi Meyers, even if the projected game script is less than ideal for a huge passing day, volume-wise, from Mac Jones, The same is true of Hunter Henry, as the Jags rank 21st in DVOA versus TEs.

The top play for the Patriots, though, is Damien Harris (questionable-hamstring). Although Rhamondre Stevenson is off the COVID list, volume shouldn’t be a problem for Harris in a game in which the Patriots are favored by more than two TDS at home. The Jaguars allowed a combined 30 carries for 157 yards to Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman last week. Harris is expected to be in fewer than 5% of tournament entries.

  • Cash Plays: None
  • GPP Plays: RB Damien Harris, RB Dare Ogunbowale, WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Hunter Henry, DST New England Patriots

Dolphins at Titans Odds

Dolphins Odds +3.5
Titans Odds -3.5
Over/Under 40
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

Both of these teams have covered at a clip of at least 57% this season, and the market is in line with my numbers here.

Pick: Pass


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

The Titans rank 17th in DVOA versus WR1s but 22nd against WR2s, so this is a perfect spot to fade Jaylen Waddle and pivot to DeVante Parker, who is cheaper and expected to be in one-tenth as many lineups. Parker had at least four catches in every game before getting shut out by Marshon Lattimore last week. Tennessee has not allowed more than 65 yards to a TE all season and have allowed only three TDs to the position, so this is a spot to fade Mike Gesicki despite low projected rostership. The Titans are 10th in defensive passing DVOA overall, so this is not a spot to target Tua Tagovailoa, either.

The Dolphins are using a hot-hand approach at RB. Last week, Duke Johnson Jr. played 35% of the snaps, Myles Gaskin played 31% and Phillip Lindsay played 29%. None are viable despite going up against a middling Titans run defense that ranks 17th in DVOA.

A.J. Brown is expected to be among the most highly rostered WRs on the slate and faces a Dolphins defense that is ranked fourth in DVOA against opposing WR1s. Brown is still a WR1 in season-long fantasy but makes sense to fade in DFS. Especially if the Dolphins can limit Brown, Ryan Tannehill and Co. will struggle against a Miami pass defense that is up to sixth in DVOA.

nfl-playoff-picture-scenarios-bracket-seeding-afc-nfc-week-17-2020
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: A.J. Brown

Like the Dolphins, the Titans use a three-way committee at RB with D’Onta Foreman, Dontrell Hilliard, and Jeremy McNichols, rendering all of them useless, especially against an above-average Dolphins run defense that ranks 13th in DVOA.

As both offenses could struggle and the total of this game is 41.5, both DSTs are in play here.

  • Cash Plays: None
  • GPP Plays: WR DeVante Parker, DST Tennessee Titans, DST Miami Dolphins

Rams at Ravens Odds

Rams Odds -5.5
Ravens Odds +5.5
Over/Under 46.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Betting Pick

Each of the past two Ravens games have topped 60 total points despite them starting two different quarterbacks not named Lamar Jackson. The Rams, meanwhile, are sixth in the NFL at 27.7 points per game.

Pick: Over 46 (to 47)


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Sony Michel’s touch counts over the past four games are 27, 20, 21 and 28. Even in a tough matchup with a Ravens defense that is ranked sixth in DVOA against the run, Michel is cash-viable on DraftKings at $5,800 unless James Conner sits, as I would prefer Chase Edmonds over Michel due to matchup.

The Ravens are still incredibly banged up at cornerback with Anthony Averett (out-ribs) joining Marlon Humphrey (IR-pec) and Marcus Peters (IR-ACL) on the shelf, making Matthew Stafford a smash play at sub-5% projected rostership against the same defense that just got lit up for 525 passing yards by Joe Burrow last week. Cooper Kupp has posted 100+ yards in four straight games and failed to top 90 only once all season. I’m playing him in cash games on FanDuel, where he is easily affordable within the $60k cap.

Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee have all been playing close to every snap and all make for ideal GPP plays. Each of them is expected to draw sub-5% ownership, so they will provide leverage on Kupp and Michel if either fails to find the end zone.

Despite Lamar Jackson (questionable-ankle) going down early three weeks ago against Cleveland and not playing since, Mark Andrews posted stat lines of 11/115/1, 10/136/2 and 8/125/1 over the past three games. He’s the top play on the board at TE and has to be locked into cash lineups at this point. It looks like Jackson is on the wrong side of questionable, thrusting Tyler Huntley back into a starting role. Huntley may not be quite as sharp coming off the COVID list, but he’s still a top GPP option after showcasing 35-point fantasy upside in his last start with four total TDs.

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The Rams are ranked 31st in DVOA versus opposing WR1s and haven’t been using Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage much, so this is also a good spot for Marquise Brown. Rashod Bateman has played nearly every snap over the past two weeks but averages just 1.1 yards per route run against zone, which the Rams run at the second-highest rate in the NFL.

The Rams like to stay back in quarters coverage and concede the run, but their talented front seven still allows them to stop it, as they rank fourth in DVOA against opposing ground games. Neither member of the Devonta Freeman or Latavius Murray committee is in play this week.

  • Cash Plays: RB Sony Michel, WR Cooper Kupp, TE Mark Andrews
  • GPP Plays: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Van Jefferson, TE Tyler Higbee

DFS Cash Lineups

DraftKings

  • QB Trey Lance $4,800 vs. HOU
  • RB David Montgomery $6,500 vs. NYG
  • RB Ronald Jones II $6,300 at NYJ
  • WR Antonio Brown $6,100 at NYJ/Brandin Cooks $6,000 at SF (if Brown sits)
  • WR Amon-Ra St. Brown $6,000 at SEA
  • WR Braxton Berrios $3,700 vs. TB
  • TE Mark Andrews $7,400 vs, LAR
  • FLEX Chase Edmonds $5,700 at DAL (if Conner sits)/Jeff Wilson Jr. $5,600 vs. HOU (if Conner plays, Mitchell sits), Sony Michel $5,800 at BAL (if Conner and Mitchell play)
  • DST Chicago Bears $3,200 vs. NYG

FanDuel

  • QB Trey Lance $6,400 vs. HOU
  • RB David Montgomery $7,200 vs. NYG
  • RB Ronald Jones II $7,000 at NYJ
  • WR Cooper Kupp $10,200 at BAL
  • WR Braxton Berrios $5,300 vs. TB
  • WR Zay Jones $5,100 at IND
  • TE Mark Andrews $8,700 vs, LAR
  • FLEX Devin Singletary $6,000 vs. ATL
  • DST Indianapolis Colts $3,900 vs. LV

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