Bears vs. 49ers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Find NFL Betting Value With This Elijah Mitchell Prop In Week 8
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell
- How should we bet two struggling, turnover-prone teams when the Bears and 49ers meet in Week 8?
- After breaking down the Bears vs. 49ers odds and matchup, our analyst sees the most value on this Elijah Mitchell prop.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
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After a tough loss last week at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts, the San Francisco 49ers will look to get back on track when they visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears.
The 49ers (2-4) jumped out to an early lead against the Colts last week but failed to score a touchdown over the final three quarters in a 30-18 home loss. Meanwhile, the Bears (3-4) are coming off a 38-3 blowout loss at the hands of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week in a game that wasn’t particularly close at any point.
In a matchup featuring two struggling, turnover-prone teams, should we be looking elsewhere — perhaps to the prop market — for our action in this Week 8 contest?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
49ers vs. Bears Injury Report
- QB Trey Lance (knee): Questionable
- LB Khalil Mack (foot): Out
- DB Tashaun Gipson Sr. (hip): Questionable
- WR Jakeem Grant Sr.(ankle): Questionable
- DL Akiem Hicks (groin): Questionable
- LB Sam Kamara (knee): Questionable
- TE Jesper Horsted (knee): Questionable
49ers vs. Bears Matchup
|49ers Offense||DVOA Rank||Bears Defense|
|49ers Defense||DVOA Rank||Bears Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Niners Unspectacular With Garoppolo
Jimmy Garoppolo will get another start for the 49ers, with Trey Lance still on the mend and San Francisco’s quarterback controversy on hold for now. Garoppolo has been uninspiring thus far to say the least, going 2-3 as a starter while throwing for just 1,106 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions.
He’ll have a tough task against a Bears defense that ranks eighth in Total DVOA and seventh against the pass. However, he should receive a boost from top receiving option, Deebo Samuel, in this game. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Samuel has an 89.0 matchup advantage against his projected primary defenders, the fourth-best among all wide receivers on the slate.
However, the 49ers have struggled with turnovers, so expect the 49ers to try to limit their exposure and control the game via the run against this 17th-ranked Bears rush defense. Per The Football Database, the 49ers’ minus-7 turnover differential ranks fourth-worst among all teams thus far.
San Francisco has excelled in controlling the game when leading, ranking 11th in time of possession when leading by six points or less and third when leading by seven points or more, per Football Outsiders. If the current spread holds, expect the same formula here in Week 8.
Rookie running back Elijah Mitchell will be the key for the 49ers on the ground. He excelled last week in a lead role, averaging 5.7 yards per carry en route to 107 yards and a touchdown. That marks his second 100-plus yard rushing performance in just four professional games.
Fields Going Through Rookie Struggles
At times, rookie Justin Fields has shown flashes of the talent that compelled the Bears to take him in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, but his struggles have been the bigger story. In six games thus far, Fields has thrown just two touchdowns and has turned the ball over eight times, six by way of interception and two via fumble.
While he’s made some bad decisions, the Bears’ offensive line is the main problem. Fields has been sacked 22 times thus far, including nine times in a single game. Against this 13th-ranked 49ers defense, expect this issue to surface again in Week 8.
Head coach Matt Nagy will likely lean heavily on the run again in this one with rookie Khalil Herbert. Herbert has shown poise while filling in for the injured David Montgomery, rushing for 272 yards and averaging 4.95 yards per carry over the past three weeks.
However, he will have a tough task this week against this 10th-ranked 49ers rush defense, so expectations should be kept in check here.
Bears vs. 49ers Picks
When comparing these teams, the clear edge goes to the 49ers, even on the road. Not only are they the more capable team on both sides of the ball, but they’ve demonstrated they can control the clock and game flow on offense.
The main beneficiary of this strategy will be Mitchell and the running game. Even in a negative game script last week, he carried 18 times for 107 yards and a touchdown. Backup JaMychal Hasty only saw three attempts, leaving no question Mitchell is the top option at this point. The absence of linebacker Khalil Mack should also help to open things up for the rookie in this contest.
In a positive game script against this 17th-ranked Bears rush defense, Mitchell should surpass his touches from last week en route to another big day on the ground. The current prop of 71.5 rushing yards is too low given the expected game flow in this game.
Pick: Elijah Mitchell Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-113) at FanDuel | Bet to: Over 75.5
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